NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+25SA

HOU

39-24

120145

47-17

NBASun, Mar 8FinalSeriesSA wins series 3-1VegasSA -5.5

HOU · top performer

Amen Thompson

G · #1

21.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SA · top performer

Victor Wembanyama

F · #1

31.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowHOU ↔ SA

Biggest swing: 6pp · 1st Quarter · 1:43

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	33	23	7-12	1-3	8-9	-12	5	4
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	31	17	5-8	1-2	6-7	-24	5	3
T. EasonF · #17	20	2	1-6	0-2	—	-20	6	2
A. SengunC · #28	27	16	7-12	0-1	2-3	-28	6	3
A. ThompsonG · #1	36	23	8-15	0-1	7-8	-12	7	6
Bench
J. GreenF · #32	4	7	2-3	1-2	2-2	-5	0	0
D. Finney-SmithF · #2	21	8	3-4	2-3	—	-9	2	3
I. CrawfordF · #27	4	0	—	—	—	-5	0	0
C. CapelaC · #30	14	2	1-3	—	—	+10	3	1
A. HolidayG · #0	8	5	2-7	0-3	1-1	-5	0	0
J. OkogieG · #20	6	0	0-2	0-1	—	-6	0	0
R. SheppardG · #15	35	17	6-15	3-10	2-2	-9	3	3
Team		120	42-87	8-28	28-32		37	25

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	29	11	4-7	3-6	—	+29	5	4
V. WembanyamaF · #1	30	29	9-13	2-5	9-10	+27	8	1
D. FoxG · #4	32	20	9-15	1-4	1-2	+17	2	10
D. VassellG · #24	30	5	0-6	0-3	5-6	+24	5	3
S. CastleG · #5	26	23	7-13	3-4	6-7	+19	3	5
Bench
K. OlynykF · #8	4	3	1-1	1-1	—	+5	0	1
L. Waters IIIF · #43	4	3	1-1	1-1	—	+5	0	2
K. JohnsonF · #3	26	20	8-13	4-7	—	+2	1	2
C. BryantF · #11	13	7	2-5	2-4	1-2	-5	3	0
B. BiyomboC · #18	4	0	—	—	—	+5	1	0
L. KornetC · #7	14	2	1-1	—	—	-7	1	3
J. McLaughlinG · #0	4	3	1-1	1-1	—	+5	1	1
D. HarperG · #2	26	19	8-12	3-4	—	-1	2	6
Team		145	51-88	21-40	22-27		32	38

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

Home

42-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

51-88

FG %

8-28

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

21-40

28-32

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-27

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

SA wins series 3-1

Nov 8

HOU110@

SA121

Jan 21

SA106@

HOU111

Jan 29

SA111@

HOU99

Mar 9

HOU120@

SA145today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

223.5

Standard · -2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOU+19034%

SA-23070%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -5.5↗SpreadBet SA -5.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

223.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SA beat HOU 145-120. V. Wembanyama paced them with 29 PTS, 8 REB, 1 AST. SA outscored the other side 37-24 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SA vs HOU

Starters vs bench

production by unit

HOUstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 29 REB · 18 AST

GS 68

Bench(7)

39 PTS · 8 REB · 7 AST

GS 25

SAstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

88 PTS · 23 REB · 23 AST

GS 84

Bench(8)

57 PTS · 9 REB · 15 AST

GS 47

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
HOU	33	24	37	26	120
SA	32	37	41	35	145

Period scoring

HOU won 1 · SA won 3

Durant 10

Wembanyama 8

Sheppard 7

Castle 10

Thompson 13

Castle 11

Jr. 9

Fox 7

HOU

Shooting comparison

HOU

48%

42-87

58%

51-88

29%

8-28

3PT

53%

21-40

88%

28-32

81%

22-27

Play-by-play · 484 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
HOU 120·SA 145
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
HOU 120·SA 145
Q4·1.4
Jeff Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dorian Finney-Smith assists)
·
HOU 120·SA 145
Q4·5.7
shot clock turnover
HOU 117·SA 145
Q4·28.5
Jordan McLaughlin defensive rebound
HOU 117·SA 145
Q4·32.1
Josh Okogie misses 25-foot running jump shot
HOU 117·SA 145
Q4·37.4
Bismack Biyombo lost ball turnover (Josh Okogie steals)
·
HOU 117·SA 145
Q4·56.3
Aaron Holiday makes 2-foot two point shot
HOU 117·SA 145
Q4·1:04
Carter Bryant makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jordan McLaughlin assists)
·
HOU 115·SA 145
Q4·1:23
Aaron Holiday makes free throw 1 of 1
HOU 115·SA 142
Q4·1:23
Bismack Biyombo shooting foul
HOU 114·SA 142
Q4·1:23
Aaron Holiday makes 4-foot two point shot
HOU 114·SA 142
Q4·1:31
Jordan McLaughlin makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
HOU 112·SA 142
Q4·1:43
Bismack Biyombo defensive rebound
HOU 112·SA 139
Q4·1:49
Jeff Green misses 25-foot three point jumper
HOU 112·SA 139
Q4·1:53
Kelly Olynyk makes 23-foot three point jumper (Lindy Waters III assists)
·
HOU 112·SA 139
Q4·2:17
Jeff Green makes 9-foot two point shot
HOU 112·SA 136
Q4·2:41
Lindy Waters III makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kelly Olynyk assists)
·
HOU 110·SA 136
Q4·2:55
Spurs defensive team rebound
HOU 110·SA 133
Q4·2:56
Josh Okogie misses 18-foot pullup jump shot
HOU 110·SA 133
Q4·3:14
Carter Bryant makes 26-foot three point jumper (Lindy Waters III assists)
·
HOU 110·SA 133
Q4·3:37
Jeff Green makes free throw 2 of 2
HOU 110·SA 130
Q4·3:37
Bismack Biyombo enters the game for Julian Champagnie
·
HOU 109·SA 130
Q4·3:37
Kelly Olynyk enters the game for Luke Kornet
·
HOU 109·SA 130
Q4·3:37
Lindy Waters III enters the game for Stephon Castle
·
HOU 109·SA 130
Q4·3:37
Jordan McLaughlin enters the game for Dylan Harper
·
HOU 109·SA 130
Q4·3:37
Jeff Green makes free throw 1 of 2
HOU 109·SA 130
Q4·3:37
Dylan Harper personal foul
HOU 108·SA 130
Q4·3:37
Rockets offensive team rebound
HOU 108·SA 130
Q4·3:37
Aaron Holiday misses 23-foot three point jumper
HOU 108·SA 130

Betting line

SA -5.5·O/U 223.5·HOU +190/SA -230

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs held off Houston Rockets, 145–120. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

SA -5.5 cashed (won by 25). Total cleared the 223.5 OVER by 41.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Alperen SengunHOU · C
CONT8.296

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SA vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Amen ThompsonHOU
20.2± 7.7high
Alperen SengunHOU
19.1± 6.9high

Rebounds

Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU
7.4± 2.5high

Assists

De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high
Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high

Blocks

Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high
Kevin DurantHOU
1.0± 1.1high
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU
0.8± 0.8high

Steals

Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
Tari EasonHOU
1.8± 1.8high
Reed SheppardHOU
1.6± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

HOU

league avg

53.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.3%

47.4%

FG%

47.0

47.7%

114.1

PPG

114.9

▶

118.2

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.3

14.3

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR