NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2ORL

ORL

30-26

111109

LAC

27-30

NBASun, Feb 22FinalSeriesORL wins series 2-0VegasLAC -4.5

ORL · top performer

Desmond Bane

G · #3

29.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAC · top performer

Kawhi Leonard

F · #2

29.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowORL ↔ LAC

Biggest swing: 22pp · 4th Quarter · 0.6

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	37	16	6-16	0-1	4-5	-5	7	8
T. da SilvaF · #23	30	13	3-6	3-6	4-4	+8	2	2
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	33	15	6-14	0-1	3-3	+2	14	3
D. BaneG · #3	32	36	13-19	4-6	6-10	+12	5	1
A. BlackG · #0	36	11	4-9	1-4	2-4	-8	2	1
Bench
M. WagnerF · #21	11	9	4-7	—	1-1	+9	2	1
J. IsaacF · #1	15	5	2-4	—	1-2	-4	4	1
J. CarterG · #2	19	0	0-1	—	—	+1	2	4
J. HowardG · #13	17	2	0-4	0-4	2-2	-6	4	2
J. RichardsonG · #11	10	4	2-3	0-1	—	+1	1	2
Team		111	40-83	8-23	23-31		43	25
DNP: J. Cain, N. Penda, G. Bitadze

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. LeonardF · #2	33	37	14-25	2-7	7-9	-4	8	4
D. Jones Jr.F · #5	32	6	3-12	0-5	—	+2	3	3
B. LopezC · #11	22	10	3-6	1-1	3-3	-4	4	1
K. DunnG · #8	34	7	2-2	—	3-4	-8	5	0
K. SandersG · #4	26	7	3-6	0-1	1-1	+3	2	2
Bench
N. BatumF · #33	13	0	0-2	0-2	—	-1	3	2
Y. NiederhauserC · #14	26	7	3-7	1-2	—	+2	8	0
J. MillerG · #22	23	14	5-7	—	4-4	-1	1	1
B. MathurinG · #9	30	21	7-16	1-5	6-7	+1	9	5
Team		109	40-83	5-23	24-28		43	18
DNP: I. Jackson, B. Bogdanovic, T. Washington Jr., C. Christie

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ORL

Away

Stat

LAC

Home

40-83

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-83

FG %

8-23

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

5-23

23-31

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

24-28

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ORL wins series 2-0

Nov 21

LAC101@

ORL129

Feb 23

ORL111@

LAC109today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAC -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

215.5

Defensive · -10.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ORL+15040%

LAC-18064%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAC -4.5↗SpreadBet LAC -4.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

215.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ORL beat LAC 111-109. D. Bane led the way with 36 points and 5 rebounds. Bennedict Mathurin's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAC vs ORL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ORLstarters 82% of pts

Starters(5)

91 PTS · 30 REB · 15 AST

GS 68

Bench(5)

20 PTS · 13 REB · 10 AST

GS 22

LACstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

67 PTS · 22 REB · 10 AST

GS 56

Bench(4)

42 PTS · 21 REB · 8 AST

GS 38

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ORL3rd Quarter · 11:50 · 59-54

+18pp→ 57% WP

Wendell Carter Jr. · makes tip shot

LAC4th Quarter · 55.6 · 109-107

+11pp→ 38% WP

Desmond Bane · traveling turnover

ORL4th Quarter · 0.6 · 111-109

+22pp→ 99% WP

Bennedict Mathurin · misses 25-foot three point jumper

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ORL	29	28	31	23	111
LAC	25	28	36	20	109

Period scoring

ORL won 2 · LAC won 1

Bane 7

Leonard 6

Bane 11

Mathurin 9

Bane 7

Leonard 31

Bane 11

Leonard 7

ORL

LAC

Shooting comparison

ORL

LAC

48%

40-83

48%

40-83

35%

8-23

3PT

22%

5-23

74%

23-31

86%

24-28

Play-by-play · 467 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ORL 111·LAC 109
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ORL 111·LAC 109
Q4·0.1
Clippers offensive team rebound
ORL 111·LAC 109
−0.8pp
Q4·0.6
Bennedict Mathurin misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
ORL 111·LAC 109
−22pp
Q4·7.8
Bennedict Mathurin defensive rebound
ORL 111·LAC 109
+2pp
Q4·8.1
Yanic Konan Niederhauser blocks Desmond Bane 's 2-foot driving layup
·
ORL 111·LAC 109
Q4·28.0
Tristan da Silva enters the game for Jonathan Isaac
·
ORL 111·LAC 109
Q4·28.0
Magic Full timeout
ORL 111·LAC 109
Q4·28.0
Kawhi Leonard makes 7-foot pullup jump shot
ORL 111·LAC 109
+5pp
Q4·40.4
Jonathan Isaac enters the game for Tristan da Silva
·
ORL 111·LAC 107
Q4·40.4
Clippers Full timeout
ORL 111·LAC 107
Q4·40.4
Paolo Banchero makes 2-foot running dunk (Desmond Bane assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ORL 111·LAC 107
−7pp
Q4·44.1
Wendell Carter Jr. defensive rebound
·
ORL 109·LAC 107
−3pp
Q4·44.1
Yanic Konan Niederhauser misses 7-foot floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
ORL 109·LAC 107
−10pp
Q4·55.6
Desmond Bane traveling turnoverBIG MOMENT
ORL 109·LAC 107
+11pp
Q4·1:10
Wendell Carter Jr. defensive rebound
·
ORL 109·LAC 107
−3pp
Q4·1:12
Kawhi Leonard misses 16-foot pullup jump shot
ORL 109·LAC 107
−3pp
Q4·1:26
(01:26) [Magic] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)BIG MOMENT
ORL 109·LAC 107
−5pp
Q4·1:26
Yanic Konan Niederhauser defensive goaltending violation
ORL 109·LAC 107
Q4·1:26
Desmond Bane makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
ORL 109·LAC 107
−9pp
Q4·1:37
Paolo Banchero defensive rebound
ORL 107·LAC 107
−2pp
Q4·1:38
Derrick Jones Jr. misses tip shotBIG MOMENT
ORL 107·LAC 107
−7pp
Q4·1:39
Derrick Jones Jr. offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
ORL 107·LAC 107
+7pp
Q4·1:40
Derrick Jones Jr. misses layupBIG MOMENT
ORL 107·LAC 107
−7pp
Q4·1:51
Kawhi Leonard defensive rebound
ORL 107·LAC 107
+2pp
Q4·1:55
Paolo Banchero misses 17-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
ORL 107·LAC 107
+7pp
Q4·2:14
Wendell Carter Jr. defensive rebound
·
ORL 107·LAC 107
−2pp
Q4·2:17
Derrick Jones Jr. misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
ORL 107·LAC 107
−7pp
Q4·2:40
Desmond Bane makes 14-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
ORL 107·LAC 107
−7pp
Q4·3:03
Magic Full timeout
ORL 105·LAC 107

Betting line

LAC -4.5·O/U 215.5·ORL +150/LAC -180

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

rlando Magic went into LA Clippers and beat them, 111–109. Decided by 2.

ORL +4.5 cashed (LAC lost outright). Total cleared the 215.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Kawhi LeonardTOR · F
USG%33.399
Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC · C
TS%69.198
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197
Anthony BlackORL · G
DEFL3.797

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ORL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAC vs ORL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
Darius GarlandLAC
19.0± 5.5high
Desmond BaneORL
18.8± 7.4high

Rebounds

Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
7.4± 4.7high
Nikola VucevicORL
6.0± 1.6high

Assists

Darius GarlandLAC
6.3± 2.3high
Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high
Jalen SuggsORL
4.6± 1.5high

Blocks

Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high
Brook LopezLAC
1.3± 1.4high
Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC
1.3± 1.5high

Steals

Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Kris DunnLAC
1.6± 1.1high
Anthony BlackORL
1.5± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ORL

league avg

LAC

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.5%

114.2

PPG

114.9

113.9

26.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

23.8

13.7

Turnovers / G

14.0

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR