NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9MEM

UTAH

18-39

114123

MEM

21-33

NBAFri, Feb 20FinalSeriesMEM leads series 2-1VegasMEM -2.5

UTAH · top performer

Isaiah Collier

G · #8

19.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MEM · top performer

Cam Spencer

G · #24

16.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowUTAH ↔ MEM

Biggest swing: 9pp · 3rd Quarter · 2:20

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. FilipowskiF · #22	28	20	9-13	1-2	1-1	-12	6	4
C. WilliamsF · #5	38	5	2-9	0-3	1-2	-3	9	2
J. KoncharG · #55	31	6	3-6	0-2	—	+3	6	4
I. CollierG · #8	25	24	9-16	2-5	4-6	-2	2	5
A. BaileyG · #19	33	20	8-19	2-9	2-3	-3	6	3
Bench
K. LoveF · #42	5	6	2-2	2-2	0-1	+5	1	2
B. HinsonF · #2	16	13	5-6	3-3	—	-14	4	0
B. SensabaughF · #28	19	9	4-12	1-4	—	-13	4	3
O. TshiebweC · #34	14	2	1-2	—	—	+6	6	0
V. Williams Jr.G · #0	23	7	2-7	2-4	1-2	-13	3	4
E. HarklessG · #16	7	2	1-1	—	0-1	+1	2	1
Team		114	46-93	13-34	9-16		49	28
DNP: S. Mykhailiuk

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. HendricksF · #22	25	9	4-11	1-4	—	-4	9	2
G. JacksonF · #45	28	20	7-13	2-5	4-8	+11	4	3
J. WellsF · #0	27	13	4-14	3-9	2-2	+11	3	3
L. LoveringC · #34	32	11	5-8	—	1-3	+4	11	3
J. MashackG · #21	31	11	4-9	2-4	1-4	+8	5	2
Bench
K. AndersonF · #5	18	10	3-4	1-1	3-3	+2	1	0
O. ProsperF · #18	30	23	10-16	0-3	3-4	+1	5	1
C. SpencerG · #24	21	10	3-5	1-2	3-3	+11	3	10
J. SmallG · #10	29	16	5-12	2-5	4-6	+1	4	5
Team		123	45-92	12-33	21-33		45	29
DNP: T. Jerome, S. Pippen Jr., W. Clayton Jr.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

UTAH

Away

Stat

MEM

Home

46-93

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-92

FG %

13-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-33

9-16

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-33

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MEM leads series 2-1

Dec 13

UTAH130@

MEM126

Dec 24

MEM137@

UTAH128

Feb 21

UTAH114@

MEM123today

Apr 11

MEM101@

UTAH147

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MEM -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

237.5

High-scoring · +11.5 vs avg

Moneyline

UTAH+11447%

MEM-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MEM -2.5↗SpreadBet MEM -2.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

237.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MEM beat UTAH 123-114. C. Spencer led with 10 PTS, 3 REB, 10 AST. MEM outscored the other side 32-21 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MEM vs UTAH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

UTAHstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

75 PTS · 29 REB · 18 AST

GS 59

Bench(6)

39 PTS · 20 REB · 10 AST

GS 27

MEMstarters 52% of pts

Starters(5)

64 PTS · 32 REB · 13 AST

GS 49

Bench(4)

59 PTS · 13 REB · 16 AST

GS 56

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MEM3rd Quarter · 2:42 · 81-78

+8pp→ 49% WP

Kyle Anderson · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cam Spencer assists)

UTAH3rd Quarter · 2:20 · 84-79

+9pp→ 56% WP

Blake Hinson · makes 29-foot three point jumper (Vince Williams Jr. assists)

MEM3rd Quarter · 1:20 · 86-83

+9pp→ 56% WP

Brice Sensabaugh · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
UTAH	32	35	21	26	114
MEM	28	27	32	36	123

Period scoring

UTAH won 2 · MEM won 2

Collier 9

Jr. 14

Filipowski 9

Anderson 12

Hinson 5

Prosper 6

Collier 10

Prosper 15

UTAH

MEM

Shooting comparison

UTAH

MEM

49%

46-93

49%

45-92

38%

13-34

3PT

36%

12-33

56%

9-16

64%

21-33

Play-by-play · 506 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
UTAH 114·MEM 123
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
UTAH 114·MEM 123
Q4·1.6
Jahmai Mashack defensive rebound
UTAH 114·MEM 123
Q4·5.2
Isaiah Collier misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
UTAH 114·MEM 123
Q4·10.2
Javon Small makes free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 114·MEM 123
Q4·10.2
Javon Small makes free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 114·MEM 122
Q4·10.2
Isaiah Collier personal take foul
UTAH 114·MEM 121
Q4·10.2
Kyle Filipowski bad pass turnover (Javon Small steals)
·
UTAH 114·MEM 121
+0.6pp
Q4·12.6
Javon Small makes free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 114·MEM 121
−0.5pp
Q4·12.6
Javon Small makes free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 114·MEM 120
Q4·12.6
Kyle Filipowski personal take foul
UTAH 114·MEM 119
+2pp
Q4·17.1
Ace Bailey makes free throw 3 of 3
UTAH 114·MEM 119
+2pp
Q4·17.1
Cam Spencer enters the game for Lawson Lovering
· ·
UTAH 113·MEM 119
Q4·17.1
Ace Bailey makes free throw 2 of 3
UTAH 113·MEM 119
−4pp
Q4·17.1
Jazz offensive team rebound
UTAH 112·MEM 119
+1pp
Q4·17.1
Ace Bailey misses free throw 1 of 3
UTAH 112·MEM 119
+2pp
Q4·17.1
Olivier-Maxence Prosper shooting foul
UTAH 112·MEM 119
−3pp
Q4·23.7
Kyle Filipowski defensive rebound
UTAH 112·MEM 119
Q4·25.1
Jahmai Mashack misses free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 112·MEM 119
−1pp
Q4·25.1
Grizzlies offensive team rebound
UTAH 112·MEM 119
Q4·25.1
Jahmai Mashack misses free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 112·MEM 119
Q4·25.1
Isaiah Collier personal take foul
UTAH 112·MEM 119
+0.8pp
Q4·34.8
Isaiah Collier makes 26-foot three pointer
UTAH 112·MEM 119
−0.7pp
Q4·41.3
Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 109·MEM 119
+0.7pp
Q4·41.3
Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 109·MEM 118
Q4·41.3
Isaiah Collier personal foul
UTAH 109·MEM 117
Q4·43.0
Ace Bailey personal foul
UTAH 109·MEM 117
+0.5pp
Q4·45.7
Cody Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 109·MEM 117
Q4·45.7
Jazz offensive team rebound
UTAH 108·MEM 117
+0.7pp
Q4·45.7
Cody Williams misses free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 108·MEM 117
+1pp

Betting line

MEM -2.5·O/U 237.5·UTAH +114/MEM -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

emphis Grizzlies held off Utah Jazz, 123–114.

MEM -2.5 cashed (won by 9). Total stayed UNDER 237.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Blake HinsonUTAH · F
TS%68.497
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM · F
TS%66.293
Jahmai MashackMEM · G
DEFL393
Isaiah CollierUTAH · G
DRIVES11.592
Cam SpencerMEM · G
TS%64.992

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · UTAH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MEM vs UTAH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 115 high confidence

Points

Lauri MarkkanenUTAH
24.2± 5.0high
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH
21.4± 8.8high
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH
20.7± 4.8high

Rebounds

Jusuf NurkicUTAH
11.4± 4.1high
Zach EdeyMEM
11.3± 7.8low
Oscar TshiebweUTAH
8.5± 5.5high

Assists

Isaiah CollierUTAH
6.6± 2.5high
Kennedy ChandlerUTAH
6.5± 2.2medium
Jusuf NurkicUTAH
5.5± 4.5high

Blocks

Zach EdeyMEM
1.9± 2.3low
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH
1.3± 1.3high
Ace BaileyUTAH
1.0± 1.0high

Steals

Bez MbengUTAH
2.5± 1.7medium
Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM
1.9± 2.1low
John KoncharUTAH
1.9± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

UTAH

league avg

MEM

53.6%

Effective FG%

54.4

53.3%

46.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.6%

117.6

PPG

◀

114.9

114.7

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

27.8

15.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR