NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9OKC

OKC

41-13

119110

LAL

32-20

NBAMon, Feb 9FinalSeriesOKC leads series 2-0VegasOKC -7.5

OKC · top performer

Alex Caruso

G · #9

16.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAL · top performer

LeBron James

F · #23

19.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowOKC ↔ LAL

Biggest swing: 14pp · 4th Quarter · 11:05

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
I. HartensteinC · #55	22	10	4-8	—	2-4	-5	9	6
C. HolmgrenC · #7	31	13	5-10	1-2	2-2	+12	10	2
L. DortG · #5	29	7	2-5	2-5	1-2	-7	5	1
Jal. WilliamsG · #8	24	23	6-17	0-2	11-13	-10	3	1
C. WallaceG · #22	31	12	6-9	0-3	—	-2	4	6
Bench
Jay. WilliamsF · #6	19	11	3-6	3-5	2-2	+9	3	2
A. CarusoG · #9	24	17	7-8	3-4	0-1	+19	1	2
K. WilliamsG · #34	4	0	0-1	—	0-2	-1	0	0
I. JoeG · #11	27	19	6-13	4-8	3-3	+14	3	2
A. WigginsG · #21	15	0	0-4	0-2	—	+6	4	1
J. McCainG · #3	14	7	3-6	1-2	—	+10	3	0
C. YoungbloodG · #3	--	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
Team		119	42-87	14-33	21-29		45	23
DNP: B. Boeheim

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	36	22	9-17	0-4	4-6	-7	6	10
R. HachimuraF · #28	33	12	5-8	2-5	—	+4	5	2
J. LaRaviaF · #12	24	14	3-8	2-6	6-6	-9	4	1
D. AytonC · #5	29	6	3-5	—	0-3	-5	10	0
M. SmartG · #36	29	19	7-16	4-7	1-2	-4	3	3
Bench
M. KleberF · #14	5	0	—	—	—	-8	0	0
J. VanderbiltF · #2	17	2	1-3	0-2	—	+9	2	0
J. HayesC · #11	14	12	5-8	—	2-3	-4	4	1
L. KennardG · #10	24	7	3-5	1-2	—	-7	1	1
A. ReavesG · #15	29	16	6-14	1-5	3-3	-14	2	7
Team		110	42-84	10-31	16-23		37	25
DNP: D. Knecht, K. Bufkin, B. James

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

OKC

Away

Stat

LAL

Home

42-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-84

FG %

14-33

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-31

21-29

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-23

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

OKC wins series 4-0

May 6

LAL90@

OKC108

May 8

LAL107@

OKC125

May 10

OKC131@

LAL108

May 12

OKC115@

LAL110

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OKC -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

222.5

Standard · -3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

OKC-23870%

LAL+19534%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OKC -7.5↗SpreadBet OKC -7.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

222.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OKC beat LAL 119-110. A. Caruso led with 17 PTS, 1 REB, 2 AST. OKC outscored the other side 36-28 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAL vs OKC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

OKCstarters 55% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 31 REB · 16 AST

GS 60

Bench(7)

54 PTS · 14 REB · 7 AST

GS 39

LALstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

73 PTS · 28 REB · 16 AST

GS 59

Bench(5)

37 PTS · 9 REB · 9 AST

GS 23

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

OKC3rd Quarter · 5:00 · 78-85

+11pp→ 36% WP

Jaylin Williams · makes free throw 1 of 2

LAL4th Quarter · 11:49 · 93-94

+12pp→ 44% WP

Marcus Smart · makes 23-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)

LAL4th Quarter · 1:03 · 113-110

+10pp→ 13% WP

Rui Hachimura · makes layup (LeBron James assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
OKC	31	36	26	26	119
LAL	30	28	33	19	110

Period scoring

OKC won 3 · LAL won 1

Joe 9

Reaves 9

McCain 7

James 6

Williams 8

LaRavia 11

Williams 10

Smart 8

OKC

LAL

Shooting comparison

OKC

LAL

48%

42-87

50%

42-84

42%

14-33

3PT

32%

10-31

72%

21-29

70%

16-23

Play-by-play · 488 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
OKC 119·LAL 110
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
OKC 119·LAL 110
Q4·12.1
Jalen Williams defensive rebound
· ·
OKC 119·LAL 110
Q4·17.3
Marcus Smart misses 26-foot three point jumper
OKC 119·LAL 110
Q4·20.9
Jalen Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
· ·
OKC 119·LAL 110
Q4·20.9
Jalen Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
· ·
OKC 118·LAL 110
Q4·20.9
Luke Kennard personal take foul
OKC 117·LAL 110
Q4·26.7
Thunder defensive team rebound
OKC 117·LAL 110
Q4·28.3
Austin Reaves misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
OKC 117·LAL 110
−1pp
Q4·35.9
Lakers Full timeout
OKC 117·LAL 110
Q4·35.9
Jalen Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
· ·
OKC 117·LAL 110
+1pp
Q4·35.9
Jalen Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
· ·
OKC 116·LAL 110
Q4·35.9
Austin Reaves personal foul
OKC 115·LAL 110
Q4·37.9
Rui Hachimura personal foul
OKC 115·LAL 110
−3pp
Q4·37.9
Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
OKC 115·LAL 110
−1pp
Q4·40.7
LeBron James misses 23-foot three point jumper
·
OKC 115·LAL 110
−4pp
Q4·51.9
Jalen Williams makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot
· ·
OKC 115·LAL 110
−3pp
Q4·1:03
Rui Hachimura makes layup (LeBron James assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
OKC 113·LAL 110
+10pp
Q4·1:17
(01:17) [Thunder] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)BIG MOMENT
OKC 113·LAL 108
−8pp
Q4·1:17
Chet Holmgren makes dunk
OKC 113·LAL 108
−3pp
Q4·1:17
Chet Holmgren offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
OKC 111·LAL 108
−7pp
Q4·1:19
Jalen Williams misses 14-foot two point shot
· ·
OKC 111·LAL 108
+5pp
Q4·1:43
LeBron James makes dunk (Marcus Smart assists)
· ·
OKC 111·LAL 108
+4pp
Q4·1:51
Cason Wallace makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
OKC 111·LAL 106
−6pp
Q4·2:04
Marcus Smart makes running layup (LeBron James assists)
· ·
OKC 109·LAL 106
+5pp
Q4·2:07
LeBron James defensive rebound
·
OKC 109·LAL 104
+0.9pp
Q4·2:11
Jalen Williams misses 14-foot step back jumpshot
· ·
OKC 109·LAL 104
+3pp
Q4·2:28
Rui Hachimura makes 23-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
OKC 109·LAL 104
+6pp
Q4·2:46
Alex Caruso enters the game for Jaylin Williams
· ·
OKC 109·LAL 101
Q4·2:46
Rui Hachimura enters the game for Jaxson Hayes
·
OKC 109·LAL 101

Betting line

OKC -7.5·O/U 222.5·OKC -238/LAL +195

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

klahoma City Thunder went into Los Angeles Lakers and beat them, 119–110.

OKC -7.5 cashed (won by 9). Total cleared the 222.5 OVER by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Cason WallaceOKC · G
DEFL599+
Jaxson HayesLAL · C
TS%75.899+
Chet HolmgrenOKC · C
CONT10.799+
Deandre AytonLAL · C
CONT10.399
LeBron JamesLAL · F
TOUCHES78.997

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · OKC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

OKC

league avg

LAL

55.9%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.0%

48.2%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.9%

118.5

PPG

◀

114.9

114.8

25.8

Assists / G

25.0

25.7

11.9

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR