NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1GS

MEM

20-32

113114

29-25

NBAMon, Feb 9FinalSeriesGS leads series 2-0VegasGS -9.5

MEM · top performer

Ty Jerome

G · #2

18.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

GS · top performer

Al Horford

C · #20

19.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMEM ↔ GS

Biggest swing: 32pp · 2nd Quarter · 2.3

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. AndersonF · #5	26	8	3-4	—	2-2	-3	4	0
C. CowardF · #23	12	2	1-2	0-1	—	+7	3	3
G. JacksonF · #45	23	6	2-4	1-2	1-2	-3	4	2
J. WellsF · #0	26	10	3-8	0-2	4-4	+1	3	0
T. JeromeG · #2	20	19	8-14	2-7	1-2	+15	3	7
Bench
T. HendricksF · #22	25	15	5-14	2-8	3-5	+2	10	2
K. Caldwell-PopeG · #3	22	15	3-6	1-1	8-9	-4	1	2
S. Pippen Jr.G · #1	20	11	5-6	1-1	—	-4	0	4
C. SpencerG · #24	24	2	1-6	0-4	—	-9	4	4
J. MashackG · #21	22	17	8-10	1-2	—	0	2	1
J. SmallG · #10	21	8	3-9	2-4	—	-7	3	1
Team		113	42-83	10-32	19-24		37	26
DNP: W. Clayton Jr.

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GreenF · #23	24	14	5-7	4-6	—	-17	4	2
G. SantosF · #15	30	16	7-10	1-3	1-1	+11	8	2
D. MeltonG · #8	25	10	3-11	0-3	4-4	-1	3	2
M. MoodyG · #4	28	15	3-5	1-3	8-9	-8	1	3
P. SpencerG · #61	32	17	8-13	1-5	0-2	-15	3	7
Bench
A. HorfordC · #20	26	16	7-12	1-3	1-1	+24	9	6
Q. PostC · #21	5	0	—	—	—	+2	0	2
G. Payton IIG · #0	24	7	3-9	1-3	—	+6	4	2
B. PodziemskiG · #2	32	16	7-15	1-6	1-2	+9	4	5
W. RichardG · #3	15	3	1-1	1-1	—	-6	4	0
Team		114	44-83	11-33	15-19		40	31
DNP: K. Porzingis

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MEM

Away

Stat

Home

42-83

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

44-83

FG %

10-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-33

19-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-19

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

GS leads series 2-0

Oct 28

MEM118@

GS131

Feb 10

MEM113@

GS114today

Feb 26

GS133@

MEM112

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

GS -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

218.5

Defensive · -7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MEM+31024%

GS-39580%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet GS -9.5↗SpreadBet GS -9.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

0.0 since open

Total

218.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

GS beat MEM 114-113. A. Horford led with 16 PTS, 9 REB, 6 AST. GS outscored the other side 29-15 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

GS vs MEM

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MEMstarters 40% of pts

Starters(5)

45 PTS · 17 REB · 12 AST

GS 39

Bench(6)

68 PTS · 20 REB · 14 AST

GS 59

GSstarters 63% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 19 REB · 16 AST

GS 53

Bench(5)

42 PTS · 21 REB · 15 AST

GS 40

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MEM2nd Quarter · 2.3 · 65-55

+32pp→ 77% WP

Kyle Anderson · enters the game for Javon Small

GS4th Quarter · 44.7 · 113-112

+18pp→ 52% WP

shot clock turnover

GS4th Quarter · 6.4 · 113-114

+26pp→ 86% WP

Jahmai Mashack · misses driving layup

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MEM	32	33	33	15	113
GS	32	25	28	29	114

Period scoring

MEM won 2 · GS won 1

Hendricks 9

Podziemski 8

Jerome 7

Spencer 6

Caldwell-Pope 7

Moody 8

Small 3

Post 11

MEM

Shooting comparison

MEM

51%

42-83

53%

44-83

31%

10-32

3PT

33%

11-33

79%

19-24

79%

15-19

Play-by-play · 477 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MEM 113·GS 114
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MEM 113·GS 114
+4pp
Q4·2.3
Cam Spencer bad pass turnover (Al Horford steals)BIG MOMENT
· ·
MEM 113·GS 114
+9pp
Q4·4.1
Cam Spencer offensive rebound
·
MEM 113·GS 114
+1pp
Q4·6.4
Jahmai Mashack misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
MEM 113·GS 114
+26pp
Q4·19.4
Gui Santos makes driving layup (Al Horford assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MEM 113·GS 114
+15pp
Q4·23.0
Al Horford offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
MEM 113·GS 112
+13pp
Q4·23.4
Al Horford misses tip shotBIG MOMENT
MEM 113·GS 112
−13pp
Q4·23.4
Al Horford offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
MEM 113·GS 112
+12pp
Q4·25.9
Al Horford misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
MEM 113·GS 112
−16pp
Q4·30.5
Jahmai Mashack vs. De'Anthony Melton (Al Horford gains possession)
· ·
MEM 113·GS 112
−3pp
Q4·44.7
shot clock turnover BIG MOMENT
MEM 113·GS 112
+18pp
Q4·44.7
Grizzlies offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
MEM 113·GS 112
−14pp
Q4·44.9
Javon Small misses 33-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
MEM 113·GS 112
+10pp
Q4·1:06
GG Jackson defensive rebound
MEM 113·GS 112
−4pp
Q4·1:09
De'Anthony Melton misses 29-foot three point shotBIG MOMENT
MEM 113·GS 112
−12pp
Q4·1:15
Jahmai Mashack vs. Al Horford (De'Anthony Melton gains possession)BIG MOMENT
· ·
MEM 113·GS 112
+12pp
Q4·1:25
De'Anthony Melton enters the game for Gary Payton IIBIG MOMENT
·
MEM 113·GS 112
−11pp
Q4·1:25
(01:25) [Warriors] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Warriors] retain their timeout
MEM 113·GS 112
Q4·1:25
Warriors Full timeout
MEM 113·GS 112
Q4·1:25
Warriors offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
MEM 113·GS 112
+11pp
Q4·1:26
Gary Payton II misses 26-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
MEM 113·GS 112
−10pp
Q4·1:34
Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
MEM 113·GS 112
+4pp
Q4·1:37
Cam Spencer misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
·
MEM 113·GS 112
+10pp
Q4·1:53
Cam Spencer defensive rebound
·
MEM 113·GS 112
−3pp
Q4·1:54
Brandin Podziemski misses layupBIG MOMENT
MEM 113·GS 112
−8pp
Q4·1:57
Jahmai Mashack bad pass turnover (Brandin Podziemski steals)BIG MOMENT
·
MEM 113·GS 112
+11pp
Q4·2:00
Moses Moody makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
MEM 113·GS 112
+8pp
Q4·2:24
Al Horford defensive rebound
MEM 113·GS 110
+2pp
Q4·2:27
GG Jackson misses 11-foot turnaround jump shot
MEM 113·GS 110
+4pp

Betting line

GS -9.5·O/U 218.5·MEM +310/GS -395

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

olden State Warriors held off Memphis Grizzlies, 114–113. It came down to the final possession.

MEM +9.5 cashed (GS won by 1). Total cleared the 218.5 OVER by 8.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Ty JeromeMEM · G
USG%33.999
Draymond GreenGS · F
CONT7.593
De'Anthony MeltonGS · G
DEFL2.992
Al HorfordGS · C
CONT6.689
Quinten PostGS · C
CONT6.388

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MEM favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

GS vs MEM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 120 high confidence

Points

Stephen CurryGS
25.2± 8.3high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
20.4± 6.0high
Ty JeromeMEM
18.9± 4.2medium

Rebounds

Zach EdeyMEM
11.3± 7.8low
Kristaps PorzingisGS
5.6± 2.4high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
5.4± 1.6high

Assists

Draymond GreenGS
6.6± 3.0high
Ty JeromeMEM
5.4± 2.7medium
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
4.8± 1.7high

Blocks

Zach EdeyMEM
1.9± 2.3low
Al HorfordGS
1.1± 1.3high
Charles BasseyGS
0.9± 1.1medium

Steals

Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM
1.9± 2.1low
De'Anthony MeltonGS
1.5± 1.4high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
1.5± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MEM

league avg

53.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

45.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.2%

114.7

PPG

114.9

114.5

27.8

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.8

14.6

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR