NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+26NO

SAC

12-43

94120

15-40

NBAMon, Feb 9FinalSeriesNO leads series 1-0VegasNO -9.5

SAC · top performer

Maxime Raynaud

C · #42

22.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NO · top performer

Trey Murphy III

F · #25

19.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSAC ↔ NO

Biggest swing: 13pp · 1st Quarter · 2:38

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	20	8	4-8	—	—	-9	3	0
M. RaynaudC · #42	38	21	8-14	0-1	5-6	-16	19	1
R. WestbrookG · #18	21	17	7-17	1-6	2-2	-3	2	2
D. DeRozanG · #10	20	8	3-11	0-2	2-3	-7	1	1
N. CliffordG · #5	37	10	4-16	1-6	1-2	-17	5	6
Bench
D. McDermottF · #7	8	3	1-4	1-4	—	-10	2	1
D. EubanksF · #19	6	4	2-3	0-1	—	-4	1	1
D. CardwellC · #32	32	6	3-5	—	—	-23	11	1
D. PlowdenG · #29	28	5	2-9	1-7	—	-19	3	2
D. CarterG · #22	30	12	6-12	0-4	0-2	-22	3	4
Team		94	40-99	4-31	10-15		50	19
DNP: D. Sabonis, K. Murray

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. JonesF · #2	30	8	3-11	2-9	0-2	+8	4	6
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	27	18	7-11	—	4-4	+11	5	6
T. Murphy IIIF · #25	29	21	8-15	5-11	0-1	+17	2	7
D. QueenC · #22	24	8	4-7	0-1	—	+14	5	1
S. BeyG · #41	26	12	5-10	1-5	1-2	+14	4	1
Bench
K. MatkovicF · #17	19	12	4-6	2-3	2-2	+19	9	1
Y. MissiC · #21	22	7	3-3	—	1-3	+9	5	1
M. PeavyG · #14	5	0	—	—	—	-1	0	0
B. McGowensG · #11	24	8	3-7	2-3	—	+14	1	3
J. HawkinsG · #24	5	6	2-3	2-3	—	-1	0	1
J. FearsG · #0	30	20	8-14	2-4	2-2	+26	4	3
Team		120	47-87	16-39	10-16		39	30
DNP: K. Looney, D. Jordan, J. Poole

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

SAC

Away

Stat

Home

40-99

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

47-87

FG %

4-31

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-39

10-15

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

10-16

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

NO leads series 1-0

Feb 10

SAC94@

NO120today

Mar 6

NO133@

SAC123

Apr 4

NO113@

SAC117

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NO -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

229.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SAC+31024%

NO-39580%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NO -9.5↗SpreadBet NO -9.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

0.0 since open

Total

229.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NO beat SAC 120-94. T. Murphy III led with 21 PTS, 2 REB, 7 AST. NO outscored the other side 30-20 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NO vs SAC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SACstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

64 PTS · 30 REB · 10 AST

GS 42

Bench(5)

30 PTS · 20 REB · 9 AST

GS 24

NOstarters 56% of pts

Starters(5)

67 PTS · 20 REB · 21 AST

GS 55

Bench(6)

53 PTS · 19 REB · 9 AST

GS 47

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SAC1st Quarter · 2:38 · 20-23

+13pp→ 21% WP

Dylan Cardwell · misses driving layup

SAC2nd Quarter · 10:31 · 26-36

+7pp→ 11% WP

Saddiq Bey · misses 5-foot turnaround jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SAC	26	20	21	27	94
NO	31	30	31	28	120

Period scoring

SAC won 0 · NO won 4

DeRozan 6

Williamson 8

Raynaud 9

Westbrook 17

Westbrook 8

Plowden 11

Carter 8

Fears 28

SAC

Shooting comparison

SAC

40%

40-99

54%

47-87

13%

4-31

3PT

41%

16-39

67%

10-15

63%

10-16

Play-by-play · 467 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SAC 94·NO 120
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SAC 94·NO 120
Q4·18.6
Maxime Raynaud makes free throw 2 of 2
SAC 94·NO 120
Q4·18.6
Maxime Raynaud makes free throw 1 of 2
SAC 93·NO 120
Q4·18.6
Bryce McGowens shooting foul
SAC 92·NO 120
Q4·31.6
Jordan Hawkins makes 25-foot three pointer (Bryce McGowens assists)
· ·
SAC 92·NO 120
Q4·38.8
Karlo Matkovic defensive rebound
SAC 92·NO 117
Q4·41.8
Daeqwon Plowden misses 29-foot three point jumper
SAC 92·NO 117
Q4·1:01
Karlo Matkovic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordan Hawkins assists)
· ·
SAC 92·NO 117
Q4·1:21
Maxime Raynaud makes 3-foot driving floating jump shot (Nique Clifford assists)
·
SAC 92·NO 114
Q4·1:42
Jordan Hawkins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bryce McGowens assists)
· ·
SAC 90·NO 114
Q4·2:04
Maxime Raynaud makes running layup (Devin Carter assists)
·
SAC 90·NO 111
Q4·2:11
Jeremiah Fears bad pass turnover (Maxime Raynaud steals)
·
SAC 88·NO 111
Q4·2:19
Devin Carter out of bounds bad pass turnover
SAC 88·NO 111
Q4·2:28
Karlo Matkovic enters the game for Yves Missi
·
SAC 88·NO 111
Q4·2:28
Kings Full timeout
SAC 88·NO 111
Q4·2:28
Yves Missi out of bounds bad pass turnover
SAC 88·NO 111
Q4·2:50
Maxime Raynaud makes 3-foot dunk (Daeqwon Plowden assists)
·
SAC 88·NO 111
Q4·2:56
Dylan Cardwell defensive rebound
SAC 86·NO 111
Q4·2:58
Bryce McGowens misses 12-foot pullup jump shot
SAC 86·NO 111
Q4·3:24
Dylan Cardwell makes two point shot
SAC 86·NO 111
Q4·3:24
Dylan Cardwell offensive rebound
SAC 84·NO 111
Q4·3:27
Nique Clifford misses driving layup
SAC 84·NO 111
Q4·3:34
Jeremiah Fears makes running layup
SAC 84·NO 111
Q4·3:36
Jeremiah Fears defensive rebound
SAC 84·NO 109
Q4·3:40
Jeremiah Fears blocks Nique Clifford 's 5-foot turnaround jump shot
·
SAC 84·NO 109
Q4·3:46
Dylan Cardwell offensive rebound
SAC 84·NO 109
Q4·3:49
Devin Carter misses 25-foot three point jumper
SAC 84·NO 109
Q4·3:57
Maxime Raynaud defensive rebound
SAC 84·NO 109
Q4·4:00
Jordan Hawkins misses 25-foot three point jumper
·
SAC 84·NO 109

Betting line

NO -9.5·O/U 229.5·SAC +310/NO -395

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ew Orleans Pelicans held off Sacramento Kings, 120–94. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

NO -9.5 cashed (won by 26). Total stayed UNDER 229.5 by 15.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Karlo MatkovicNO · F
TS%69.698
Herbert JonesNO · F
DEFL3.596
Zion WilliamsonNO · F
DRIVES13.796
Maxime RaynaudSAC · C
CONT7.593
Russell WestbrookSAC · G
DRIVES11.692

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SAC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NO vs SAC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Trey Murphy IIINO
20.0± 6.2high
Jeremiah FearsNO
19.9± 10.9high
Saddiq BeyNO
19.2± 4.8high

Rebounds

Domantas SabonisSAC
10.6± 3.5high
Maxime RaynaudSAC
8.3± 2.4high
Precious AchiuwaSAC
8.2± 4.6high

Assists

Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low
DeMar DeRozanSAC
4.8± 3.7high
Domantas SabonisSAC
4.3± 2.0high

Blocks

Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Dylan CardwellSAC
1.7± 1.7high
Keegan MurraySAC
1.4± 0.8high

Steals

Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low
Jeremiah FearsNO
1.5± 1.1high
Trey Murphy IIINO
1.4± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

SAC

league avg

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

52.7%

46.7%

FG%

47.0

46.6%

111.0

PPG

114.9

▶

115.5

25.5

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.1

13.7

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR