MEM
20-30
POR
24-28
MEM · top performer
Cam Spencer
G · #24
18
Pts
0
Reb
5
Ast
POR · top performer
Jrue Holiday
G · #5
20
Pts
5
Reb
7
Ast
Biggest swing: 7pp · 3rd Quarter · 9:27
NBA · Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trail Blazers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 28 | 13 | 3-13 | 2-9 | 5-6 | -12 | 6 | 2 | |
| 25 | 11 | 5-8 | 1-3 | — | -2 | 8 | 1 | |
| 27 | 15 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 4-4 | +7 | 3 | 2 | |
| 27 | 13 | 5-11 | 2-8 | 1-5 | -16 | 3 | 4 | |
| 22 | 13 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 4-4 | -1 | 3 | 6 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 21 | 5 | 2-7 | 1-3 | — | -27 | 5 | 0 | |
| 26 | 18 | 7-8 | 2-3 | 2-2 | -19 | 0 | 5 | |
| 20 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-3 | — | -8 | 1 | 1 | |
| 22 | 11 | 5-8 | 1-2 | — | -13 | 5 | 3 | |
| 22 | 11 | 5-11 | 1-3 | — | -9 | 3 | 4 | |
| Team | 115 | 42-88 | 15-41 | 16-21 | 37 | 28 | ||
| DNP: K. Anderson, K. Caldwell-Pope | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 28 | 23 | 8-15 | 3-6 | 4-4 | +14 | 2 | 2 | |
| 30 | 15 | 6-11 | 3-7 | — | +13 | 4 | 3 | |
| 25 | 13 | 6-10 | 0-3 | 1-1 | +12 | 17 | 0 | |
| 25 | 20 | 6-12 | 1-4 | 7-7 | +11 | 5 | 7 | |
| 14 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | -4 | 2 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 19 | 13 | 6-6 | 1-1 | — | +18 | 7 | 2 | |
| 4 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | — | -10 | 1 | 0 | |
| 23 | 11 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 3-3 | +16 | 0 | 1 | |
| 21 | 11 | 4-10 | 2-7 | 1-2 | +19 | 5 | 9 | |
| 15 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-1 | — | +1 | 1 | 3 | |
| 25 | 9 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 2-2 | +5 | 1 | 2 | |
| 12 | 12 | 4-6 | 4-5 | — | +5 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 135 | 49-90 | 17-42 | 20-21 | 46 | 31 | ||
| DNP: K. Murray, D. Avdija, M. Thybulle | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
54
28
Ast
31
Team stats
MEM
Away
Stat
POR
Home
42-88
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
49-90
48
FG %
54
15-41
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
17-42
16-21
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
20-21
28
Assists
31
16
Turnovers
18
Season series
Series tied 1-1
POR96@MEM119MEM115@POR135todayMEM115@POR122POR122@MEM114Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
POR -8.5
Between 7 and 10
Total
235.5
High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MEM+23530%POR-29074%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
8.5
0.0 since open
Total
235.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
POR beat MEM 135-115. J. Holiday led with 20 PTS, 5 REB, 7 AST. POR outscored the other side 43-28 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
POR vs MEM
Starters vs bench
production by unitMEMstarters 57% of ptsStarters(5)
65 PTS · 23 REB · 15 AST
GS 52
Bench(5)
50 PTS · 14 REB · 13 AST
GS 42
PORstarters 54% of ptsStarters(5)
73 PTS · 30 REB · 14 AST
GS 66
Bench(7)
62 PTS · 16 REB · 17 AST
GS 54
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCam Spencer · makes 25-foot three pointer
Jrue Holiday · makes 24-foot three pointer
Toumani Camara · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEM | 36 | 28 | 23 | 28 | 115 |
| POR | 25 | 43 | 38 | 29 | 135 |
Period scoring
MEM won 1 · POR won 3
Q1
Wells 6
III 7
Q2
Wells 5
Grant 12
Q3
Jackson 5
Clingan 8
Q4
Prosper 5
Rupert 12
Shooting comparison
48%
42-88
FG
54%
49-90
37%
15-41
3PT
40%
17-42
76%
16-21
FT
95%
20-21
Play-by-play · 471 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MEM 115·POR 135
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MEM 115·POR 135
- Q4·21.5
Jahmai Mashack makes 26-foot three point jumper (Javon Small assists)
·
MEM 115·POR 135
- Q4·35.5
Blake Wesley lost ball turnover (GG Jackson steals)
·
MEM 112·POR 135
- Q4·55.4
Javon Small makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Cam Spencer assists)
·
MEM 112·POR 135
- Q4·1:05
Walter Clayton Jr. defensive rebound
MEM 109·POR 135
- Q4·1:10
Yang Hansen misses 26-foot three point jumper
MEM 109·POR 135
- Q4·1:31
Cam Spencer makes free throw 2 of 2
MEM 109·POR 135
- Q4·1:31
Javon Small enters the game for Jaylen Wells
·
MEM 108·POR 135
- Q4·1:31
Cam Spencer makes free throw 1 of 2
MEM 108·POR 135
- Q4·1:31
Yang Hansen personal foul
MEM 107·POR 135
- Q4·1:42
Walter Clayton Jr. defensive rebound
MEM 107·POR 135
- Q4·1:45
Rayan Rupert misses 12-foot step back jumpshot
MEM 107·POR 135
- Q4·2:01
Yang Hansen defensive rebound
MEM 107·POR 135
- Q4·2:05
GG Jackson misses 26-foot running jump shot
MEM 107·POR 135
- Q4·2:11
Yang Hansen lost ball turnover (Jahmai Mashack steals)
·
MEM 107·POR 135
- Q4·2:34
Cam Spencer makes 15-foot two point shot
MEM 107·POR 135
- Q4·2:44
Yang Hansen bad pass turnover (Jahmai Mashack steals)
·
MEM 105·POR 135
- Q4·2:50
Blake Wesley defensive rebound
MEM 105·POR 135
- Q4·2:53
Jahmai Mashack misses 25-foot three point jumper
MEM 105·POR 135
- Q4·3:06
Yang Hansen makes 2-foot layup (Blake Wesley assists)
·
MEM 105·POR 135
- Q4·3:19
GG Jackson makes free throw 2 of 2
MEM 105·POR 133
- Q4·3:19
GG Jackson makes free throw 1 of 2
MEM 104·POR 133
- Q4·3:19
Sidy Cissoko shooting foul
MEM 103·POR 133
- Q4·3:30
GG Jackson enters the game for Taylor Hendricks
·
MEM 103·POR 133
- Q4·3:30
Yang Hansen enters the game for Robert Williams III
·
MEM 103·POR 133
- Q4·3:30
Grizzlies defensive team rebound
MEM 103·POR 133
- Q4·3:33
Rayan Rupert misses 24-foot running jump shot
MEM 103·POR 133
- Q4·3:38
Walter Clayton Jr. lost ball turnover (Rayan Rupert steals)
·
MEM 103·POR 133
- Q4·3:52
Sidy Cissoko makes 23-foot three point jumper (Vit Krejci assists)
·
MEM 103·POR 133
Betting line
POR -8.5·O/U 235.5·MEM +235/POR -290
Recap · NBA
ortland Trail Blazers held off Memphis Grizzlies, 135–115. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
POR -8.5 cashed (won by 20). Total cleared the 235.5 OVER by 14.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 players in cohort
Robert Williams IIIPOR · CTS%72.299- Jrue HolidayPOR · GTOUCHES84.698
Shaedon SharpePOR · GUSG%29.996
Donovan ClinganPOR · CCONT7.694
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM · FTS%66.293
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · MEM favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
POR vs MEM.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 135 high confidence
Points
- Deni AvdijaPOR25.3± 7.7high
- Ja MorantPOR19.6± 8.8high
- Damian LillardPOR19.2± 8.2high
Rebounds
- Zach EdeyMEM11.3± 7.8low
- Donovan ClinganPOR10.3± 2.7high
- Robert Williams IIIPOR7.4± 1.6high
Assists
- Ja MorantPOR8.1± 3.9high
- Deni AvdijaPOR6.3± 3.2high
- Jrue HolidayPOR6.3± 3.0high
Blocks
- Zach EdeyMEM1.9± 2.3low
- Donovan ClinganPOR1.5± 1.2high
- Robert Williams IIIPOR1.1± 0.9high
Steals
- Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM1.9± 2.1low
- Matisse ThybullePOR1.7± 1.8high
- Taylor HendricksMEM1.5± 2.0high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
MEM
league avg
POR
53.3%
Effective FG%
54.4
53.0%
45.6%
FG%
47.0
45.1%
114.7
PPG
114.9
114.6
27.8
Assists / G
25.0
25.0
14.6
Turnovers / G
14.0
16.2