NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2ATL

UTAH

16-36

119121

ATL

26-27

NBAThu, Feb 5FinalSeriesATL wins series 2-0VegasATL -8.5

UTAH · top performer

Isaiah Collier

G · #8

23.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Jock Landale

C · #31

29.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowUTAH ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 35pp · 4th Quarter · 3.4

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. MarkkanenF · #23	23	18	6-12	3-5	3-3	-3	5	1
K. FilipowskiF · #22	28	15	5-9	2-3	3-5	-6	17	1
C. WilliamsF · #5	38	5	2-9	0-3	1-2	-10	4	2
I. CollierG · #8	48	25	11-22	0-2	3-4	-2	7	11
A. BaileyG · #19	40	20	9-26	2-8	—	0	6	1
Bench
B. SensabaughF · #28	30	18	6-11	3-5	3-6	+2	4	2
O. TshiebweC · #34	10	4	2-2	—	—	-1	2	1
S. MykhailiukG · #10	23	14	6-10	2-4	—	+10	4	0
Team		119	47-101	12-30	13-20		49	19
DNP: K. Love, J. Nurkic, E. Harkless, K. George

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. JohnsonF · #1	39	22	9-19	0-5	4-5	+7	16	15
Z. RisacherF · #10	19	0	0-8	0-4	—	-8	6	0
J. LandaleC · #31	32	26	10-14	5-8	1-2	+10	11	5
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	34	23	9-15	0-3	5-5	+10	2	5
D. DanielsG · #5	35	11	5-12	1-2	0-2	+9	6	6
Bench
C. KispertF · #24	25	20	7-9	2-4	4-4	-5	2	0
M. GueyeF · #18	9	2	1-2	0-1	—	-5	4	0
A. NewellF · #14	16	9	4-7	0-2	1-3	-8	3	0
C. McCollumG · #3	32	8	3-12	0-6	2-2	0	0	3
Team		121	48-98	8-35	17-23		50	34
DNP: O. Okongwu, C. Koloko, K. Wallace

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

UTAH

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

47-101

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

48-98

FG %

12-30

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-35

13-20

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-23

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ATL wins series 2-0

Nov 14

ATL132@

UTAH122

Feb 6

UTAH119@

ATL121today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

245.5

High-scoring · +19.5 vs avg

Moneyline

UTAH+25029%

ATL-31076%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -8.5↗SpreadBet ATL -8.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

245.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ATL beat UTAH 121-119. J. Landale paced them with 26 PTS, 11 REB, 5 AST. Nickeil Alexander-Walker's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (35pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs UTAH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

UTAHstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 39 REB · 16 AST

GS 67

Bench(3)

36 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST

GS 25

ATLstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

82 PTS · 41 REB · 31 AST

GS 80

Bench(4)

39 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST

GS 29

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ATL4th Quarter · 46.3 · 116-117

+17pp→ 61% WP

Jock Landale · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)

ATL4th Quarter · 21.5 · 116-117

+14pp→ 78% WP

shot clock turnover

ATL4th Quarter · 3.4 · 119-121

+35pp→ 91% WP

Nickeil Alexander-Walker · makes 18-foot two point shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
UTAH	31	29	36	23	119
ATL	30	31	31	29	121

Period scoring

UTAH won 2 · ATL won 2

Filipowski 10

Kispert 7

Markkanen 12

Landale 11

Bailey 10

Alexander-Walker 15

Collier 8

Johnson 9

UTAH

ATL

Shooting comparison

UTAH

ATL

47%

47-101

49%

48-98

40%

12-30

3PT

23%

8-35

65%

13-20

74%

17-23

Play-by-play · 496 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
UTAH 119·ATL 121
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
UTAH 119·ATL 121
Q4·0.1
Jazz offensive team rebound
UTAH 119·ATL 121
+1pp
Q4·0.8
Ace Bailey misses 24-foot fade away jump shot
UTAH 119·ATL 121
+2pp
Q4·1.3
Mouhamed Gueye enters the game for Corey Kispert
·
UTAH 119·ATL 121
Q4·1.3
Jazz Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
UTAH 119·ATL 121
+6pp
Q4·3.4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 18-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
UTAH 119·ATL 121
+35pp
Q4·10.3
Ace Bailey makes 25-foot three pointer (Cody Williams assists)BIG MOMENT
·
UTAH 119·ATL 119
−30pp
Q4·13.8
Jazz Full timeout
UTAH 116·ATL 119
Q4·13.8
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
UTAH 116·ATL 119
−5pp
Q4·13.8
Dyson Daniels enters the game for CJ McCollum
·
UTAH 116·ATL 118
Q4·13.8
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 116·ATL 118
+2pp
Q4·13.8
Cody Williams personal take foulBIG MOMENT
UTAH 116·ATL 117
+12pp
Q4·21.5
Corey Kispert enters the game for Dyson Daniels
·
UTAH 116·ATL 117
Q4·21.5
shot clock turnover BIG MOMENT
UTAH 116·ATL 117
+14pp
Q4·21.5
Jazz offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
UTAH 116·ATL 117
−10pp
Q4·21.8
Jalen Johnson blocks Kyle Filipowski 's 20-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
·
UTAH 116·ATL 117
+6pp
Q4·28.1
(00:28.1) [Jazz] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)BIG MOMENT
UTAH 116·ATL 117
+8pp
Q4·30.5
Isaiah Collier offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
UTAH 116·ATL 117
−11pp
Q4·34.8
Isaiah Collier misses 5-foot turnaround jump shotBIG MOMENT
UTAH 116·ATL 117
+10pp
Q4·46.3
Jock Landale makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)BIG MOMENT
·
UTAH 116·ATL 117
+17pp
Q4·59.0
shot clock turnover BIG MOMENT
UTAH 116·ATL 114
+13pp
Q4·59.0
Jazz offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
UTAH 116·ATL 114
−10pp
Q4·59.7
CJ McCollum blocks Isaiah Collier 's 12-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
·
UTAH 116·ATL 114
+9pp
Q4·1:12
Kyle Filipowski offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
UTAH 116·ATL 114
−10pp
Q4·1:15
Ace Bailey misses 17-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
UTAH 116·ATL 114
+9pp
Q4·1:24
Kyle Filipowski offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
UTAH 116·ATL 114
−9pp
Q4·1:28
Isaiah Collier misses 18-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
UTAH 116·ATL 114
+8pp
Q4·1:42
Kyle Filipowski offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
UTAH 116·ATL 114
−9pp
Q4·1:46
Isaiah Collier misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
UTAH 116·ATL 114
+7pp

Betting line

ATL -8.5·O/U 245.5·UTAH +250/ATL -310

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

tlanta Hawks held off Utah Jazz, 121–119. Decided by 2.

UTAH +8.5 cashed (ATL won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 245.5 by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.397
Lauri MarkkanenUTAH · F
USG%27.492
Isaiah CollierUTAH · G
DRIVES11.592
Oscar TshiebweUTAH · C
TS%63.388

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · UTAH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

UTAH

league avg

ATL

53.6%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

46.7%

FG%

47.0

47.2%

117.6

PPG

114.9

117.2

29.6

Assists / G

25.0

29.6

15.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR