NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7NY

DEN

33-19

127134

33-18

NBAWed, Feb 4FinalSeriesNY leads series 1-0VegasNY -4.5

DEN · top performer

Nikola Jokic

C · #15

26.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NY · top performer

Jalen Brunson

G · #11

32.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDEN ↔ NY

Biggest swing: 50pp · OT · 0.8

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final/2OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. JonesF · #21	12	0	0-3	0-2	—	+2	3	0
N. JokicC · #15	45	30	10-27	1-13	9-12	+3	14	10
J. MurrayG · #27	48	39	15-33	3-14	6-7	-11	5	6
C. BraunG · #0	43	6	2-6	0-2	2-2	+4	7	6
P. WatsonG · #8	33	10	4-13	1-6	1-2	-4	5	2
Bench
J. ValanciunasC · #17	13	2	1-1	—	—	-12	3	2
T. Hardaway Jr.G · #10	42	19	6-8	4-6	3-3	-9	6	2
B. BrownG · #11	38	10	4-9	2-4	—	-12	5	0
J. StrawtherG · #3	17	11	4-5	2-3	1-1	+4	3	1
Team		127	46-105	13-50	22-27		51	29
DNP: H. Tyson, Z. Nnaji, D. Holmes II, J. Pickett

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. AnunobyF · #8	48	20	7-17	4-9	2-2	+13	8	4
K. TownsC · #32	31	24	9-13	2-6	4-4	+12	12	1
J. ClarksonG · #00	24	11	5-7	1-2	—	-4	1	1
M. BridgesG · #25	49	5	2-8	1-6	—	-2	4	4
J. BrunsonG · #11	47	42	14-27	5-12	9-11	+13	8	9
Bench
M. DiawaraF · #51	14	5	2-5	1-4	—	-6	0	0
M. RobinsonC · #23	23	10	5-5	—	—	+3	8	0
A. HukportiC · #55	4	0	0-1	—	—	-8	0	0
L. ShametG · #44	36	16	6-15	4-10	—	+22	2	3
K. McCullar Jr.G · #9	2	0	0-1	—	—	+1	1	2
T. KolekG · #13	13	1	0-1	0-1	1-2	-9	1	4
Team		134	50-100	18-50	16-19		45	28
DNP: G. Yabusele, D. Jones

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DEN

Away

Stat

Home

46-105

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

50-100

FG %

13-50

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-50

22-27

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-19

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

NY leads series 1-0

Feb 5

DEN127@

NY134today

Mar 7

NY142@

DEN103

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

228.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DEN+16038%

NY-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -4.5↗SpreadBet NY -4.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

228.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NY beat DEN 134-127. J. Brunson led the way with 42 points and 9 assists. Jamal Murray's play in the ot drove the biggest swing of the night (50pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NY vs DEN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DENstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 34 REB · 24 AST

GS 64

Bench(4)

42 PTS · 17 REB · 5 AST

GS 35

NYstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

102 PTS · 33 REB · 19 AST

GS 82

Bench(6)

32 PTS · 12 REB · 9 AST

GS 23

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NYOT · 0.8 · 117-119

+50pp→ 98% WP

Jamal Murray · misses 28-foot three point jumper

DENOT · 0.3 · 118-119

+38pp→ 38% WP

Christian Braun · makes free throw 1 of 2

DENOT · 0.0 · 119-119

+49pp→ 50% WP

End of the 1st Overtime

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	OT2	T
DEN	30	23	29	26	11	8	127
NY	28	27	33	20	11	15	134

Period scoring

DEN won 2 · NY won 3

Murray 20

Brunson 5

Jokic 7

Towns 7

Jokic 9

Brunson 15

Strawther 8

Brunson 6

Jokic 4

Towns 4

OT2

Jr. 3

Brunson 10

DEN

Shooting comparison

DEN

44%

46-105

50%

50-100

26%

13-50

3PT

36%

18-50

81%

22-27

84%

16-19

Play-by-play · 553 plays

period

event

player

2OT·0.0
End of Game
DEN 127·NY 134
2OT·0.0
End of the 2nd Overtime
DEN 127·NY 134
2OT·9.5
Mitchell Robinson defensive rebound
DEN 127·NY 134
2OT·11.7
Jamal Murray misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
DEN 127·NY 134
+1pp
2OT·18.0
Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 127·NY 134
−0.8pp
2OT·18.0
Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 127·NY 133
2OT·18.0
Jamal Murray personal take foul
DEN 127·NY 132
2OT·22.2
Nikola Jokic personal take foul
DEN 127·NY 132
+4pp
2OT·25.3
Jalen Brunson defensive rebound
DEN 127·NY 132
+2pp
2OT·27.5
Nikola Jokic misses 26-foot three point jumper
DEN 127·NY 132
+4pp
2OT·30.8
Nuggets Full timeout
DEN 127·NY 132
2OT·30.9
Jalen Brunson makes 7-foot driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
DEN 127·NY 132
+6pp
2OT·46.3
Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DEN 127·NY 130
−9pp
2OT·48.3
Nikola Jokic offensive rebound
DEN 124·NY 130
−2pp
2OT·51.3
Christian Braun misses 23-foot running jump shot
DEN 124·NY 130
+3pp
2OT·56.3
Jamal Murray defensive rebound
DEN 124·NY 130
−0.8pp
2OT·58.3
OG Anunoby misses driving dunk
DEN 124·NY 130
−2pp
2OT·1:16
Nikola Jokic makes free throw 3 of 3
DEN 124·NY 130
2OT·1:16
Nuggets offensive team rebound
DEN 123·NY 130
+3pp
2OT·1:16
Nikola Jokic misses free throw 2 of 3
DEN 123·NY 130
−3pp
2OT·1:16
Nuggets offensive team rebound
DEN 123·NY 130
+3pp
2OT·1:16
Nikola Jokic misses free throw 1 of 3
DEN 123·NY 130
+3pp
2OT·1:16
Mitchell Robinson shooting foulBIG MOMENT
DEN 123·NY 130
−7pp
2OT·1:25
Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Landry Shamet assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DEN 123·NY 130
+8pp
2OT·1:38
Bruce Brown makes 9-foot pullup jump shot
DEN 123·NY 127
−3pp
2OT·2:01
Landry Shamet makes 2-foot layup (Jalen Brunson assists)
·
DEN 121·NY 127
+5pp
2OT·2:08
Mitchell Robinson defensive rebound
DEN 121·NY 125
+2pp
2OT·2:10
Bruce Brown misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
DEN 121·NY 125
+6pp
2OT·2:22
Mitchell Robinson loose ball foul
DEN 121·NY 125
−0.8pp
2OT·2:22
Nuggets defensive team rebound
DEN 121·NY 125
−2pp

Betting line

NY -4.5·O/U 228.5·DEN +160/NY -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ew York Knicks held off Denver Nuggets, 134–127 in overtime.

NY -4.5 cashed (won by 7). Total cleared the 228.5 OVER by 32.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Nikola JokicDEN · C
TOUCHES12399+
Jalen BrunsonNY · G
TOUCHES89.699
Jamal MurrayDEN · G
TOUCHES82.297
OG AnunobyNY · F
CONT8.496
Karl-Anthony TownsNY · C
CONT7.693

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DEN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NY vs DEN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Jalen BrunsonNY
27.4± 9.6high
Nikola JokicDEN
26.6± 7.0high
Jamal MurrayDEN
24.2± 8.1high

Rebounds

Nikola JokicDEN
12.5± 3.1high
Karl-Anthony TownsNY
10.8± 3.1high
Josh HartNY
8.4± 3.0high

Assists

Nikola JokicDEN
9.7± 4.5high
Jamal MurrayDEN
6.4± 1.9high
Jalen BrunsonNY
6.2± 3.2high

Blocks

Nikola JokicDEN
1.0± 1.0high
OG AnunobyNY
1.0± 1.0high
Karl-Anthony TownsNY
0.9± 0.7high

Steals

Josh HartNY
1.5± 1.4high
OG AnunobyNY
1.5± 1.3high
Bruce BrownDEN
1.3± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DEN

league avg

57.2%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.9%

49.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

48.0%

121.1

PPG

◀

114.9

116.4

28.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

27.0

12.1

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

12.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR