NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+17MIN

MIN

31-19

131114

MEM

18-29

NBASat, Jan 31FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasMIN -11.5

MIN · top performer

Anthony Edwards

G · #5

23.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MEM · top performer

GG Jackson

F · #45

16.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIN ↔ MEM

Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 10:01

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. RandleF · #30	35	27	11-17	4-5	1-1	+11	7	7
J. McDanielsF · #3	34	20	8-14	3-5	1-1	-1	4	2
R. GobertC · #27	31	9	4-8	0-1	1-4	+4	16	0
D. DiVincenzoG · #0	18	11	4-7	3-5	—	+7	1	5
A. EdwardsG · #5	39	33	9-21	1-6	14-16	+18	2	3
Bench
J. BeringerF · #19	5	2	1-1	—	—	+6	0	0
N. ReidC · #11	31	20	7-14	6-10	—	+15	9	5
M. ConleyG · #10	18	0	0-1	0-1	—	+18	3	2
J. ClarkG · #22	17	5	2-3	0-1	1-1	+18	2	0
B. HylandG · #8	13	4	1-3	1-3	1-1	-11	1	4
Team		131	47-89	18-37	19-24		45	28
DNP: J. Ingles, L. Miller, J. Juzang, R. Dillingham

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. CowardF · #23	27	8	3-9	0-4	2-2	-13	6	3
J. WellsF · #0	27	15	5-13	2-5	3-6	-5	6	1
J. LandaleC · #31	26	7	3-7	1-3	—	-14	8	2
T. JeromeG · #2	20	20	6-12	2-7	6-7	-8	1	6
V. Williams Jr.G · #5	23	8	3-6	1-3	1-2	-12	4	0
Bench
O. ProsperF · #18	22	13	6-9	1-4	—	-3	5	0
GG JacksonF · #45	28	19	8-11	1-3	2-2	-6	4	5
K. Caldwell-PopeG · #3	21	12	5-10	0-3	2-3	-12	2	1
C. SpencerG · #24	25	5	2-4	1-2	—	-5	3	5
J. SmallG · #10	22	7	3-9	1-3	0-2	-7	4	6
Team		114	44-90	10-37	16-24		43	29
DNP: J. Konchar, S. Pippen Jr.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

MEM

Home

47-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

44-90

FG %

18-37

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-37

19-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-24

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 18

MEM116@

MIN110

Feb 1

MIN131@

MEM114today

Feb 3

MIN128@

MEM137

Mar 4

MEM110@

MIN117

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -11.5

Between 10 and —

Total

229.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN-48583%

MEM+37021%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -11.5↗SpreadBet MIN -11.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

11.5

0.0 since open

Total

229.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat MEM 131-114. A. Edwards paced them with 33 PTS, 2 REB, 3 AST. MIN outscored the other side 30-21 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MEM vs MIN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MINstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

100 PTS · 30 REB · 17 AST

GS 81

Bench(5)

31 PTS · 15 REB · 11 AST

GS 35

MEMstarters 51% of pts

Starters(5)

58 PTS · 25 REB · 12 AST

GS 43

Bench(5)

56 PTS · 18 REB · 17 AST

GS 51

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIN	30	28	39	34	131
MEM	21	28	30	35	114

Period scoring

MIN won 2 · MEM won 1

Edwards 12

Jerome 7

Reid 9

Wells 7

Edwards 13

Jerome 5

McDaniels 8

Jackson 9

MIN

MEM

Shooting comparison

MIN

MEM

53%

47-89

49%

44-90

49%

18-37

3PT

27%

10-37

79%

19-24

67%

16-24

Play-by-play · 476 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 131·MEM 114
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 131·MEM 114
Q4·1.2
shot clock turnover
MIN 131·MEM 114
Q4·25.2
GG Jackson makes running dunk
MIN 131·MEM 114
Q4·28.1
Anthony Edwards bad pass turnover (Cam Spencer steals)
·
MIN 131·MEM 112
Q4·41.7
GG Jackson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Javon Small assists)
·
MIN 131·MEM 112
Q4·44.3
Javon Small offensive rebound
MIN 131·MEM 109
Q4·47.1
Jaylen Wells misses 25-foot three point jumper
MIN 131·MEM 109
Q4·53.9
Julius Randle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)
·
MIN 131·MEM 109
Q4·1:09
Jaylen Clark defensive rebound
MIN 128·MEM 109
Q4·1:12
Jaylen Wells misses 16-foot pullup jump shot
MIN 128·MEM 109
Q4·1:25
Anthony Edwards makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 128·MEM 109
Q4·1:25
GG Jackson enters the game for Cedric Coward
·
MIN 127·MEM 109
Q4·1:25
Anthony Edwards makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 127·MEM 109
Q4·1:25
Jaylen Wells shooting foul
MIN 126·MEM 109
Q4·1:37
Cedric Coward lost ball turnover (Naz Reid steals)
·
MIN 126·MEM 109
Q4·1:40
Julius Randle bad pass turnover (Cam Spencer steals)
·
MIN 126·MEM 109
Q4·1:57
Naz Reid defensive rebound
MIN 126·MEM 109
Q4·2:02
Cedric Coward misses 25-foot three point jumper
MIN 126·MEM 109
Q4·2:22
Jaylen Clark out of bounds bad pass turnover
MIN 126·MEM 109
Q4·2:22
Jaylen Clark offensive rebound
MIN 126·MEM 109
Q4·2:26
Anthony Edwards misses 13-foot two point shot
MIN 126·MEM 109
Q4·2:46
Jaylen Clark enters the game for Rudy Gobert
·
MIN 126·MEM 109
Q4·2:46
Timberwolves Full timeout
MIN 126·MEM 109
Q4·2:46
Javon Small makes 1-foot running dunk (Cedric Coward assists)
·
MIN 126·MEM 109
Q4·2:51
Julius Randle bad pass turnover (Cedric Coward steals)
·
MIN 126·MEM 107
Q4·2:53
Olivier-Maxence Prosper bad pass turnover (Julius Randle steals)
·
MIN 126·MEM 107
Q4·2:56
Olivier-Maxence Prosper defensive rebound
MIN 126·MEM 107
Q4·2:59
Jaden McDaniels misses alley oop dunk
MIN 126·MEM 107
Q4·3:18
Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cam Spencer assists)
·
MIN 126·MEM 107

Betting line

MIN -11.5·O/U 229.5·MIN -485/MEM +370

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

innesota Timberwolves went into Memphis Grizzlies and beat them, 131–114.

MIN -11.5 cashed (won by 17). Total cleared the 229.5 OVER by 15.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Rudy GobertMIN · C
CONT1299+
Ty JeromeMEM · G
USG%33.999
Anthony EdwardsMIN · G
USG%31.397
Joan BeringerMIN · F
TS%68.397
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM · F
TS%66.293

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MEM vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 120 high confidence

Points

Anthony EdwardsMIN
23.7± 9.4high
LaMelo BallMIN
22.2± 8.0high
Ty JeromeMEM
18.9± 4.2medium

Rebounds

Zach EdeyMEM
11.3± 7.8low
Rudy GobertMIN
10.1± 3.9high
Anthony EdwardsMIN
5.4± 4.1high

Assists

LaMelo BallMIN
7.3± 2.5high
Ty JeromeMEM
5.4± 2.7medium
Walter Clayton Jr.MEM
4.7± 2.9high

Blocks

Zach EdeyMEM
1.9± 2.3low
Rudy GobertMIN
1.4± 1.2high
Joan BeringerMIN
1.1± 2.1high

Steals

Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM
1.9± 2.1low
Taylor HendricksMEM
1.5± 2.0high
Jahmai MashackMEM
1.3± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIN

league avg

MEM

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.3%

47.6%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.6%

116.8

PPG

◀

114.9

114.7

25.7

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.8

14.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR