NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8NO

MEM

18-28

106114

13-37

NBAFri, Jan 30FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasNO -3.5

MEM · top performer

Cam Spencer

G · #24

14.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NO · top performer

Derik Queen

C · #22

21.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMEM ↔ NO

Biggest swing: 12pp · 3rd Quarter · 4:34

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. Jackson Jr.F · #8	34	16	6-19	2-10	2-2	-6	9	2
C. CowardF · #23	23	13	5-12	2-5	1-1	-13	5	5
J. WellsF · #0	26	10	3-8	1-4	3-3	+4	4	4
J. LandaleC · #31	31	12	5-12	0-1	2-2	0	8	0
C. SpencerG · #24	24	16	6-7	4-4	—	+8	1	3
Bench
O. ProsperF · #18	12	2	1-4	0-2	—	-5	2	0
GG JacksonF · #45	18	4	2-10	0-4	—	-4	8	5
K. Caldwell-PopeG · #3	25	11	4-5	0-1	3-4	+4	2	2
J. KoncharG · #46	22	9	4-6	1-3	—	-12	4	2
V. Williams Jr.G · #5	25	13	4-10	2-7	3-3	-16	3	3
Team		106	40-93	12-41	14-15		46	26
DNP: T. Jerome, S. Pippen Jr.

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. JonesF · #2	30	16	7-9	1-3	1-2	+10	4	1
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	33	21	7-10	—	7-8	+14	7	4
T. Murphy IIIF · #25	33	8	2-14	0-7	4-5	-1	1	2
D. QueenC · #22	34	22	8-12	—	6-7	+11	9	7
S. BeyG · #41	34	22	9-19	2-7	2-2	+12	8	2
Bench
K. MatkovicF · #17	14	5	2-4	1-3	—	+1	4	1
Y. MissiC · #21	14	0	—	—	0-2	-3	4	1
J. AlvaradoG · #15	23	11	4-10	3-8	—	+5	1	2
M. PeavyG · #14	7	3	1-2	1-2	—	-4	0	1
J. FearsG · #0	17	6	3-8	0-3	—	-5	4	3
Team		114	43-88	8-33	20-26		42	24
DNP: K. Looney, D. Jordan, J. Poole, J. Hawkins

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MEM

Away

Stat

Home

40-93

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-88

FG %

12-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-33

14-15

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-26

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Oct 23

NO122@

MEM128

Nov 27

MEM133@

NO128

Jan 24

NO133@

MEM127

Jan 31

MEM106@

NO114today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NO -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

230.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MEM+13043%

NO-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NO -3.5↗SpreadBet NO -3.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

230.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NO beat MEM 114-106. D. Queen led with 22 PTS, 9 REB, 7 AST. NO outscored the other side 35-15 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NO vs MEM

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MEMstarters 63% of pts

Starters(5)

67 PTS · 27 REB · 14 AST

GS 55

Bench(5)

39 PTS · 19 REB · 12 AST

GS 27

NOstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

89 PTS · 29 REB · 16 AST

GS 75

Bench(5)

25 PTS · 13 REB · 8 AST

GS 23

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MEM3rd Quarter · 4:34 · 74-76

+12pp→ 42% WP

Vince Williams Jr. · enters the game for Cam Spencer

NO3rd Quarter · 1:30 · 76-82

+9pp→ 78% WP

Olivier-Maxence Prosper · misses 22-foot three point jumper

NO4th Quarter · 10:36 · 85-93

+9pp→ 94% WP

Vince Williams Jr. · makes free throw 1 of 1

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MEM	32	29	15	30	106
NO	28	30	35	21	114

Period scoring

MEM won 2 · NO won 2

Jr. 7

Bey 7

Coward 5

Williamson 13

Landale 4

III 34

Spencer 6

Queen 8

MEM

Shooting comparison

MEM

43%

40-93

49%

43-88

29%

12-41

3PT

24%

8-33

93%

14-15

77%

20-26

Play-by-play · 486 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MEM 106·NO 114
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MEM 106·NO 114
Q4·18.5
Herbert Jones defensive rebound
MEM 106·NO 114
Q4·21.5
Cedric Coward misses driving floating jump shot
MEM 106·NO 114
+0.7pp
Q4·32.4
Derik Queen makes free throw 2 of 2
MEM 106·NO 114
−0.6pp
Q4·32.4
Derik Queen makes free throw 1 of 2
MEM 106·NO 113
Q4·32.4
Cedric Coward personal foul
MEM 106·NO 112
+2pp
Q4·34.2
Cedric Coward makes two point shot
MEM 106·NO 112
−0.8pp
Q4·38.7
Cedric Coward defensive rebound
MEM 104·NO 112
Q4·42.0
Herbert Jones misses free throw 2 of 2
MEM 104·NO 112
−1pp
Q4·42.0
Jaren Jackson Jr. enters the game for Vince Williams Jr.
· ·
MEM 104·NO 112
Q4·42.0
Cam Spencer enters the game for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
·
MEM 104·NO 112
Q4·42.0
Herbert Jones makes free throw 1 of 2
MEM 104·NO 112
Q4·42.0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope personal foul
MEM 104·NO 111
+0.9pp
Q4·46.9
Vince Williams Jr. enters the game for Cam Spencer
·
MEM 104·NO 111
Q4·46.9
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope enters the game for Jaren Jackson Jr.
· ·
MEM 104·NO 111
Q4·46.9
(00:46.9) [Pelicans] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Pelicans] retain their timeout
MEM 104·NO 111
Q4·46.9
Pelicans Full timeout
MEM 104·NO 111
Q4·47.0
Pelicans defensive team rebound
MEM 104·NO 111
Q4·47.0
Trey Murphy III blocks Jaylen Wells 's 3-foot running layup
·
MEM 104·NO 111
+1pp
Q4·51.7
Zion Williamson lost ball turnover (Jaren Jackson Jr. steals)
· ·
MEM 104·NO 111
−1pp
Q4·1:04
Cedric Coward traveling turnover
MEM 104·NO 111
+2pp
Q4·1:10
Grizzlies Full timeout
MEM 104·NO 111
Q4·1:10
Saddiq Bey makes 2-foot running dunk (Trey Murphy III assists)
·
MEM 104·NO 111
+2pp
Q4·1:15
Cam Spencer bad pass turnover (Saddiq Bey steals)
·
MEM 104·NO 109
+5pp
Q4·1:27
Cedric Coward enters the game for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
·
MEM 104·NO 109
Q4·1:27
Saddiq Bey enters the game for Jose Alvarado
·
MEM 104·NO 109
Q4·1:27
Derik Queen out of bounds lost ball turnover
MEM 104·NO 109
−4pp
Q4·1:32
Herbert Jones defensive rebound
MEM 104·NO 109
+1pp
Q4·1:36
Zion Williamson blocks Jock Landale 's 5-foot two point shot
·
MEM 104·NO 109
+3pp

Betting line

NO -3.5·O/U 230.5·MEM +130/NO -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ew Orleans Pelicans held off Memphis Grizzlies, 114–106.

NO -3.5 cashed (won by 8). Total stayed UNDER 230.5 by 10.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Karlo MatkovicNO · F
TS%69.698
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH · F
CONT9.197
Herbert JonesNO · F
DEFL3.596
Zion WilliamsonNO · F
DRIVES13.796
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM · F
TS%66.293

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MEM favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NO vs MEM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 110 high confidence

Points

Trey Murphy IIINO
20.0± 6.2high
Jeremiah FearsNO
19.9± 10.9high
Saddiq BeyNO
19.2± 4.8high

Rebounds

Zach EdeyMEM
11.3± 7.8low
Derik QueenNO
8.1± 5.6high
Kevon LooneyNO
6.6± 3.6high

Assists

Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low
Ty JeromeMEM
5.4± 2.7medium
Walter Clayton Jr.MEM
4.7± 2.9high

Blocks

Zach EdeyMEM
1.9± 2.3low
Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Derik QueenNO
1.0± 0.9high

Steals

Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM
1.9± 2.1low
Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low
Taylor HendricksMEM
1.5± 2.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MEM

league avg

53.3%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.7%

45.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.6%

114.7

PPG

114.9

115.5

27.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.1

14.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR