MIN
29-19
DAL
19-28
MIN · top performer
Julius Randle
F · #30
31
Pts
5
Reb
4
Ast
DAL · top performer
Daniel Gafford
F · #21
14
Pts
6
Reb
0
Ast
Biggest swing: 7pp · 1st Quarter · 9:44
NBA · Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 34 | 31 | 12-21 | 0-3 | 7-7 | +2 | 5 | 4 | |
| 30 | 8 | 3-8 | 2-5 | — | -4 | 2 | 2 | |
| 21 | 6 | 2-5 | — | 2-7 | +9 | 6 | 1 | |
| 28 | 8 | 3-8 | 2-5 | — | +9 | 5 | 1 | |
| 38 | 20 | 6-17 | 3-4 | 5-6 | +14 | 6 | 6 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 16 | 9 | 3-4 | — | 3-4 | +11 | 4 | 1 | |
| 28 | 23 | 9-17 | 3-10 | 2-2 | +6 | 8 | 3 | |
| 23 | 6 | 2-6 | 2-5 | — | +6 | 1 | 5 | |
| 11 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | — | +9 | 1 | 1 | |
| 12 | 7 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 1-1 | +3 | 4 | 2 | |
| Team | 118 | 43-94 | 12-34 | 20-27 | 42 | 26 | ||
| DNP: J. Ingles, L. Miller, R. Dillingham | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 32 | 4 | 2-7 | 0-2 | — | -17 | 8 | 5 | |
| 21 | 14 | 5-8 | — | 4-5 | -6 | 6 | 0 | |
| 34 | 21 | 10-20 | 0-4 | 1-4 | -12 | 7 | 2 | |
| 32 | 18 | 7-14 | — | 4-5 | +1 | 6 | 1 | |
| 32 | 9 | 1-8 | 0-5 | 7-8 | -10 | 4 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 27 | 5 | 2-4 | — | 1-2 | -5 | 9 | 4 | |
| 24 | 17 | 4-10 | 1-1 | 8-12 | -2 | 5 | 3 | |
| 10 | 6 | 3-5 | 0-2 | — | -9 | 1 | 2 | |
| 4 | 0 | — | — | — | -4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 24 | 11 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 1-3 | -1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Team | 105 | 38-84 | 3-18 | 26-39 | 50 | 22 | ||
| DNP: K. Thompson, D. Russell | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
46
FG %
45
26
Ast
22
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
43-94
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
38-84
46
FG %
45
12-34
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
3-18
20-27
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
26-39
26
Assists
22
12
Turnovers
17
Season series
MIN leads series 2-0
DAL96@MIN120MIN118@DAL105todayDAL111@MIN122MIN124@DAL94Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIN -8.5
Between 7 and 10
Total
228.5
Standard · +2.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MIN-32576%DAL+26028%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
8.5
0.0 since open
Total
228.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
MIN beat DAL 118-105. J. Randle paced them with 31 PTS, 5 REB, 4 AST. MIN outscored the other side 27-19 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DAL vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 62% of ptsStarters(5)
73 PTS · 24 REB · 14 AST
GS 61
Bench(5)
45 PTS · 18 REB · 12 AST
GS 38
DALstarters 63% of ptsStarters(5)
66 PTS · 31 REB · 9 AST
GS 44
Bench(5)
39 PTS · 19 REB · 13 AST
GS 32
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactJaden McDaniels · makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Anthony Edwards assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 31 | 27 | 34 | 26 | 118 |
| DAL | 29 | 19 | 27 | 30 | 105 |
Period scoring
MIN won 3 · DAL won 1
Q1
Randle 10
Williams 8
Q2
Randle 6
Christie 4
Q3
Randle 11
Marshall 10
Q4
Reid 9
Washington 12
Shooting comparison
46%
43-94
FG
45%
38-84
35%
12-34
3PT
17%
3-18
74%
20-27
FT
67%
26-39
Play-by-play · 522 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 118·DAL 105
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 118·DAL 105
- Q4·19.4
Naz Reid defensive rebound
MIN 118·DAL 105
- Q4·22.1
Anthony Edwards blocks Jaden Hardy 's 11-foot pullup jump shot
·
MIN 118·DAL 105
- Q4·34.1
Naz Reid makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot (Julius Randle assists)
·
MIN 118·DAL 105
- Q4·56.8
Naz Reid defensive rebound
MIN 116·DAL 105
- Q4·59.5
P.J. Washington misses 24-foot three point jumper
MIN 116·DAL 105
- Q4·1:07
Jaden Hardy defensive rebound
MIN 116·DAL 105
- Q4·1:09
Naz Reid misses 27-foot three point jumper
MIN 116·DAL 105
- Q4·1:28
Anthony Edwards defensive rebound
MIN 116·DAL 105
- Q4·1:32
Max Christie misses 23-foot three point jumper
MIN 116·DAL 105
- Q4·1:42
Jaden Hardy defensive rebound
MIN 116·DAL 105
- Q4·1:45
Anthony Edwards misses running layup
MIN 116·DAL 105
- Q4·1:49
Max Christie lost ball turnover (Anthony Edwards steals)
·
MIN 116·DAL 105
- Q4·1:56
Max Christie defensive rebound
MIN 116·DAL 105
- Q4·1:58
Julius Randle misses 18-foot step back jumpshot
MIN 116·DAL 105
- Q4·2:21
P.J. Washington makes 1-foot layup (Caleb Martin assists)
·
MIN 116·DAL 105
- Q4·2:39
Julius Randle makes 1-foot two point shot (Mike Conley assists)
·
MIN 116·DAL 103
−0.5pp
- Q4·3:00
P.J. Washington makes running layup (Max Christie assists)
·
MIN 114·DAL 103
- Q4·3:02
Max Christie defensive rebound
MIN 114·DAL 101
- Q4·3:08
Jaden McDaniels misses 25-foot three point jumper
MIN 114·DAL 101
- Q4·3:21
P.J. Washington makes tip shot
MIN 114·DAL 101
- Q4·3:21
P.J. Washington offensive rebound
MIN 114·DAL 99
- Q4·3:25
P.J. Washington misses 23-foot three point jumper
MIN 114·DAL 99
- Q4·3:29
Caleb Martin defensive rebound
MIN 114·DAL 99
- Q4·3:31
Naz Reid misses 26-foot three point jumper
MIN 114·DAL 99
- Q4·3:36
P.J. Washington kicked ball violation
MIN 114·DAL 99
- Q4·3:40
Julius Randle offensive rebound
MIN 114·DAL 99
- Q4·3:43
Anthony Edwards misses driving floating jump shot
MIN 114·DAL 99
- Q4·3:58
Julius Randle enters the game for Rudy Gobert
·
MIN 114·DAL 99
Betting line
MIN -8.5·O/U 228.5·MIN -325/DAL +260
Recap · NBA
innesota Timberwolves went into Dallas Mavericks and beat them, 118–105.
MIN -8.5 cashed (won by 13). Total stayed UNDER 228.5 by 5.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 13 players in cohort
Rudy GobertMIN · CCONT1299+
Dwight PowellDAL · FTS%69.999
Anthony EdwardsMIN · GUSG%31.397
Joan BeringerMIN · FTS%68.397- Daniel GaffordDAL · FTS%67.796
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
MIN
league avg
DAL
55.1%
Effective FG%
54.4
52.7%
47.6%
FG%
47.0
46.6%
116.8
PPG
114.9
114.1
25.7
Assists / G
25.0
25.3
14.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
14.0