DEN
31-15
MIL
18-26
DEN · top performer
Julian Strawther
G · #3
20
Pts
5
Reb
3
Ast
MIL · top performer
Giannis Antetokounmpo
F · #34
22
Pts
13
Reb
7
Ast
Biggest swing: 15pp · 4th Quarter · 10.6
NBA · Denver Nuggets at Milwaukee Bucks · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 16 | 13 | 4-9 | 1-2 | 4-5 | +12 | 6 | 3 | |
| 37 | 11 | 4-12 | 1-4 | 2-2 | +1 | 12 | 2 | |
| 38 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-4 | — | +7 | 5 | 2 | |
| 34 | 13 | 5-14 | 2-7 | 1-2 | -1 | 3 | 7 | |
| 27 | 20 | 6-13 | 1-6 | 7-8 | +12 | 5 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 12 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -8 | 4 | 3 | |
| 16 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-3 | — | +7 | 4 | 0 | |
| 26 | 17 | 5-14 | 3-9 | 4-4 | 0 | 4 | 2 | |
| 26 | 15 | 6-11 | 1-2 | 2-2 | -20 | 3 | 3 | |
| 9 | 5 | 2-4 | 1-3 | — | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Team | 102 | 35-87 | 12-41 | 20-23 | 47 | 27 | ||
| DNP: J. Murray | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 32 | 22 | 4-8 | — | 14-16 | +6 | 13 | 7 | |
| 35 | 11 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 2-6 | +5 | 10 | 6 | |
| 29 | 17 | 7-12 | 1-4 | 2-2 | -3 | 7 | 2 | |
| 28 | 4 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 1-2 | -9 | 3 | 2 | |
| 35 | 21 | 8-20 | 4-10 | 1-1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 26 | 11 | 4-12 | 3-7 | — | +7 | 9 | 0 | |
| 12 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | +2 | 2 | 0 | |
| 21 | 5 | 2-7 | 1-5 | — | -8 | 1 | 0 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | — | +2 | 0 | 1 | |
| 16 | 9 | 4-8 | 1-3 | — | -12 | 2 | 5 | |
| Team | 100 | 34-85 | 12-39 | 20-27 | 51 | 24 | ||
| DNP: T. Antetokounmpo, J. Sims | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
40
FG %
40
27
Ast
24
Team stats
DEN
Away
Stat
MIL
Home
35-87
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
34-85
40
FG %
40
12-41
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
12-39
20-23
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
20-27
27
Assists
24
7
Turnovers
10
Season series
DEN wins series 2-0
MIL104@DEN108DEN102@MIL100todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIL -8.5
Between 7 and 10
Total
213.5
Defensive · -12.5 vs avg
Moneyline
DEN+26028%MIL-32576%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
8.5
0.0 since open
Total
213.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
DEN beat MIL 102-100. J. Strawther led with 20 PTS, 5 REB, 3 AST. MIL outscored the other side 37-24 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIL vs DEN
Starters vs bench
production by unitDENstarters 61% of ptsStarters(5)
62 PTS · 31 REB · 17 AST
GS 53
Bench(5)
40 PTS · 16 REB · 10 AST
GS 32
MILstarters 75% of ptsStarters(5)
75 PTS · 37 REB · 18 AST
GS 68
Bench(5)
25 PTS · 14 REB · 6 AST
GS 15
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactMyles Turner · makes driving layup (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)
Ryan Rollins · makes 25-foot three pointer (Myles Turner assists)
Myles Turner · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 21 | 27 | 30 | 24 | 102 |
| MIL | 21 | 21 | 21 | 37 | 100 |
Period scoring
DEN won 2 · MIL won 1
Q1
Gordon 7
Anthony 7
Q2
Pickett 7
Turner 10
Q3
Strawther 16
Kuzma 8
Q4
Jr. 10
Rollins 15
Shooting comparison
40%
35-87
FG
40%
34-85
29%
12-41
3PT
31%
12-39
87%
20-23
FT
74%
20-27
Play-by-play · 474 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
DEN 102·MIL 100
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DEN 102·MIL 100
- Q4·0.1
Bucks offensive team rebound
DEN 102·MIL 100
−0.8pp
- Q4·0.6
Kyle Kuzma misses heave jump shot
DEN 102·MIL 100
−4pp
- Q4·1.7
Kyle Kuzma defensive reboundBIG MOMENT
DEN 102·MIL 100
−8pp
- Q4·4.5
Jalen Pickett misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
DEN 102·MIL 100
+9pp
- Q4·4.5
Jalen Pickett makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 102·MIL 100
−1pp
- Q4·4.5
Gary Harris personal foulBIG MOMENT
DEN 101·MIL 100
−10pp
- Q4·5.4
Ryan Rollins makes 24-foot three pointerBIG MOMENT
DEN 101·MIL 100
+6pp
- Q4·10.6
Bucks Full timeout
DEN 101·MIL 97
- Q4·10.6
Tim Hardaway Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 101·MIL 97
+5pp
- Q4·10.6
Bruce Brown enters the game for Julian Strawther
·
DEN 100·MIL 97
- Q4·10.6
Tim Hardaway Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 100·MIL 97
−1pp
- Q4·10.6
Myles Turner shooting foulBIG MOMENT
DEN 99·MIL 97
−15pp
- Q4·17.4
Nuggets Full timeout
DEN 99·MIL 97
- Q4·29.3
Julian Strawther enters the game for Bruce Brown
·
DEN 99·MIL 97
- Q4·29.3
Nuggets Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
DEN 99·MIL 97
−6pp
- Q4·29.3
(00:29.3) [Nuggets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)BIG MOMENT
DEN 99·MIL 97
+6pp
- Q4·29.3
Ryan Rollins makes 25-foot three pointer (Myles Turner assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DEN 99·MIL 97
+12pp
- Q4·34.2
Gary Harris enters the game for Giannis Antetokounmpo
· ·
DEN 99·MIL 94
- Q4·34.2
Bucks Full timeout
DEN 99·MIL 94
- Q4·34.2
Bucks offensive team rebound
DEN 99·MIL 94
+3pp
- Q4·34.2
Zeke Nnaji blocks Ryan Rollins 's 2-foot running layup
·
DEN 99·MIL 94
−4pp
- Q4·40.9
Ryan Rollins defensive rebound
DEN 99·MIL 94
+1pp
- Q4·40.9
Myles Turner blocks Zeke Nnaji's two point shot
·
DEN 99·MIL 94
+3pp
- Q4·43.0
Zeke Nnaji offensive rebound
DEN 99·MIL 94
−4pp
- Q4·46.5
Bruce Brown misses 26-foot three point jumper
DEN 99·MIL 94
+3pp
- Q4·59.3
Ryan Rollins makes two point shot
DEN 99·MIL 94
+3pp
- Q4·1:08
Zeke Nnaji makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 99·MIL 92
+2pp
- Q4·1:08
Zeke Nnaji makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 98·MIL 92
−0.6pp
Betting line
MIL -8.5·O/U 213.5·DEN +260/MIL -325
Recap · NBA
enver Nuggets went into Milwaukee Bucks and beat them, 102–100. Decided by 2.
DEN +8.5 cashed (MIL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 213.5 by 11.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 players in cohort- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA · FUSG%36.699+
Ryan RollinsMIL · GDEFL4.098
Myles TurnerMIL · CCONT8.195
Pete NanceMIL · FTS%63.990
Aaron GordonDEN · FCONT6.790
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · DEN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIL vs DEN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
155
projections · 135 high confidence
Points
- Nikola JokicDEN26.6± 7.0high
- Jamal MurrayDEN24.2± 8.1high
- Ryan RollinsMIL19.5± 7.1high
Rebounds
- Nikola JokicDEN12.5± 3.1high
- Marvin Bagley IIIDEN5.9± 3.4high
- Aaron GordonDEN5.3± 2.9high
Assists
- Nikola JokicDEN9.7± 4.5high
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL6.9± 2.8high
- Jamal MurrayDEN6.4± 1.9high
Blocks
- Nikola JokicDEN1.0± 1.0high
- Spencer JonesDEN0.7± 1.0high
- Marvin Bagley IIIDEN0.6± 0.7high
Steals
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL2.1± 1.4high
- Ryan RollinsMIL1.5± 1.1high
- Bruce BrownDEN1.3± 1.5high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
DEN
league avg
MIL
57.2%
Effective FG%
54.4
56.5%
49.2%
FG%
47.0
47.7%
121.1
PPG
114.9
110.6
28.7
Assists / G
25.0
25.8
12.1
Turnovers / G
14.0
14.5