SAC
12-34
CLE
26-20
SAC · top performer
Domantas Sabonis
F · #11
24
Pts
16
Reb
6
Ast
CLE · top performer
Evan Mobley
C · #4
29
Pts
13
Reb
7
Ast
Biggest swing: 15pp · 4th Quarter · 2:27
NBA · Sacramento Kings at Cleveland Cavaliers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 20 | 4 | 2-6 | 0-1 | — | -22 | 8 | 2 | |
| 9 | 0 | 0-2 | — | — | -6 | 1 | 0 | |
| 27 | 11 | 3-12 | 3-10 | 2-2 | -18 | 5 | 3 | |
| 30 | 20 | 6-12 | 0-1 | 8-9 | -24 | 4 | 3 | |
| 23 | 10 | 4-8 | 2-5 | — | -20 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 31 | 24 | 9-14 | 1-1 | 5-5 | +16 | 16 | 6 | |
| 23 | 8 | 4-4 | — | — | +10 | 3 | 1 | |
| 31 | 21 | 6-12 | 3-5 | 6-6 | +19 | 4 | 4 | |
| 33 | 16 | 6-15 | 4-9 | — | +17 | 1 | 7 | |
| 14 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-1 | — | +3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 118 | 42-89 | 13-33 | 21-22 | 43 | 26 | ||
| DNP: D. McDermott, D. Saric, D. Eubanks, D. Carter, K. Ellis | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 28 | 6 | 2-4 | 2-4 | — | +21 | 5 | 1 | |
| 34 | 15 | 3-6 | — | 9-10 | +7 | 9 | 0 | |
| 35 | 29 | 13-24 | 0-4 | 3-5 | +17 | 13 | 7 | |
| 34 | 33 | 11-25 | 5-12 | 6-7 | +5 | 5 | 8 | |
| 36 | 17 | 6-14 | 3-5 | 2-3 | +20 | 7 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 14 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-3 | — | +2 | 3 | 0 | |
| 19 | 9 | 3-9 | 1-3 | 2-2 | -12 | 0 | 0 | |
| 15 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-1 | — | -27 | 1 | 0 | |
| 21 | 5 | 2-5 | 1-3 | — | -7 | 5 | 3 | |
| 4 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | — | -1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 123 | 44-96 | 13-36 | 22-27 | 48 | 23 | ||
| DNP: T. Bryant, L. Ball | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
47
FG %
46
26
Ast
23
Team stats
SAC
Away
Stat
CLE
Home
42-89
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
44-96
47
FG %
46
13-33
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
13-36
21-22
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
22-27
26
Assists
23
11
Turnovers
6
Season series
CLE leads series 1-0
SAC118@CLE123todayCLE132@SAC126Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CLE -13.5
Between 10 and —
Total
233.5
High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg
Moneyline
SAC+42519%CLE-57585%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
13.5
0.0 since open
Total
233.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
CLE beat SAC 123-118. E. Mobley paced them with 29 PTS, 13 REB, 7 AST. CLE outscored the other side 34-22 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CLE vs SAC
Starters vs bench
production by unitSACstarters 38% of ptsStarters(5)
45 PTS · 18 REB · 8 AST
GS 28
Bench(5)
73 PTS · 25 REB · 18 AST
GS 64
CLEstarters 81% of ptsStarters(5)
100 PTS · 39 REB · 20 AST
GS 92
Bench(5)
23 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST
GS 14
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactJarrett Allen · enters the game for Evan Mobley
Donovan Mitchell · makes 26-foot three pointer
Dylan Cardwell · loose ball foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAC | 35 | 36 | 22 | 25 | 118 |
| CLE | 35 | 33 | 34 | 21 | 123 |
Period scoring
SAC won 2 · CLE won 1
Q1
Schroder 12
Mobley 13
Q2
LaVine 8
Mobley 11
Q3
Westbrook 6
DeRozan 24
Q4
Sabonis 8
Mitchell 6
Shooting comparison
47%
42-89
FG
46%
44-96
39%
13-33
3PT
36%
13-36
95%
21-22
FT
81%
22-27
Play-by-play · 474 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
SAC 118·CLE 123
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SAC 118·CLE 123
+1pp
- Q4·8.9
DeMar DeRozan makes running layup
SAC 118·CLE 123
- Q4·14.2
Domantas Sabonis defensive rebound
SAC 116·CLE 123
- Q4·15.7
Donovan Mitchell misses free throw 2 of 2
SAC 116·CLE 123
−1pp
- Q4·15.7
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
SAC 116·CLE 123
- Q4·15.7
Dennis Schroder personal foul
SAC 116·CLE 122
+0.7pp
- Q4·15.7
Jaylon Tyson defensive rebound
SAC 116·CLE 122
+0.7pp
- Q4·18.2
Russell Westbrook misses 25-foot three point jumper
SAC 116·CLE 122
+2pp
- Q4·25.6
Russell Westbrook enters the game for Dylan Cardwell
·
SAC 116·CLE 122
- Q4·25.6
Kings Full timeout
SAC 116·CLE 122
- Q4·25.6
Jaylon Tyson makes 5-foot floating jump shot (Donovan Mitchell assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SAC 116·CLE 122
+6pp
- Q4·43.0
Evan Mobley defensive rebound
SAC 116·CLE 120
+2pp
- Q4·45.3
Malik Monk misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
SAC 116·CLE 120
+5pp
- Q4·48.7
Jaylon Tyson bad pass turnover (Malik Monk steals)BIG MOMENT
·
SAC 116·CLE 120
−6pp
- Q4·53.7
Jaylon Tyson defensive rebound
SAC 116·CLE 120
+2pp
- Q4·56.3
Dennis Schroder misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
SAC 116·CLE 120
+6pp
- Q4·1:17
Jarrett Allen makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
SAC 116·CLE 120
−5pp
- Q4·1:17
Jarrett Allen makes free throw 1 of 2
SAC 116·CLE 119
+1pp
- Q4·1:17
Domantas Sabonis shooting foul
SAC 116·CLE 118
+0.5pp
- Q4·1:28
Dylan Cardwell loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
·
SAC 116·CLE 118
+12pp
- Q4·1:28
Cavaliers offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
SAC 116·CLE 118
+8pp
- Q4·1:28
Donovan Mitchell misses 23-foot running jump shotBIG MOMENT
SAC 116·CLE 118
−8pp
- Q4·1:30
Evan Mobley defensive rebound
SAC 116·CLE 118
+3pp
- Q4·1:34
Domantas Sabonis misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
SAC 116·CLE 118
+8pp
- Q4·1:36
Jaylon Tyson bad pass turnover (Domantas Sabonis steals)BIG MOMENT
·
SAC 116·CLE 118
−10pp
- Q4·1:51
DeMar DeRozan out of bounds lost ball turnoverBIG MOMENT
·
SAC 116·CLE 118
+10pp
- Q4·1:58
Donovan Mitchell bad pass turnover (Dylan Cardwell steals)BIG MOMENT
·
SAC 116·CLE 118
−9pp
- Q4·2:12
DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
SAC 116·CLE 118
+7pp
- Q4·2:12
DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 1 of 2
SAC 115·CLE 118
−2pp
Betting line
CLE -13.5·O/U 233.5·SAC +425/CLE -575
Recap · NBA
leveland Cavaliers held off Sacramento Kings, 123–118. Decided by 5.
SAC +13.5 cashed (CLE won by 5). Total cleared the 233.5 OVER by 7.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 players in cohort
Jarrett AllenCLE · CCONT9.899
Donovan MitchellCLE · GUSG%31.998- Evan MobleyCLE · CCONT9.498
Maxime RaynaudSAC · CCONT7.593
Russell WestbrookSAC · GDRIVES11.692
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · SAC favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CLE vs SAC.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
155
projections · 135 high confidence
Points
- Donovan MitchellCLE27.5± 7.3high
- James HardenCLE19.6± 6.6high
- DeMar DeRozanSAC18.0± 12.6high
Rebounds
- Domantas SabonisSAC10.6± 3.5high
- Maxime RaynaudSAC8.3± 2.4high
- Precious AchiuwaSAC8.2± 4.6high
Assists
- James HardenCLE5.9± 2.8high
- DeMar DeRozanSAC4.8± 3.7high
- Domantas SabonisSAC4.3± 2.0high
Blocks
- Evan MobleyCLE2.1± 1.3high
- Dylan CardwellSAC1.7± 1.7high
- Keegan MurraySAC1.4± 0.8high
Steals
- Donovan MitchellCLE1.5± 1.8high
- James HardenCLE1.4± 1.2high
- Killian HayesSAC1.2± 1.4high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
SAC
league avg
CLE
52.5%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶55.6%
46.7%
FG%
47.0
▶47.7%
111.0
PPG
114.9
▶117.4
25.5
Assists / G
25.0
▶27.1
13.7
Turnovers / G
14.0
13.8