NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7ATL

PHX

27-18

103110

ATL

22-25

NBAFri, Jan 23FinalSeriesATL wins series 2-0VegasPHX -3.5

PHX · top performer

Devin Booker

G · #1

23.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Onyeka Okongwu

F · #17

21.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHX ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 13pp · 4th Quarter · 4:19

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. O'NealeF · #00	28	5	2-5	1-3	—	-21	2	3
D. BrooksF · #3	34	11	4-18	1-5	2-2	-11	6	2
M. WilliamsC · #15	21	6	3-8	—	—	-10	5	1
D. BookerG · #1	28	31	12-21	5-9	2-2	+5	4	3
C. GillespieG · #12	35	16	6-12	3-6	1-1	-2	6	4
Bench
O. IghodaroF · #11	27	8	4-7	—	—	+3	7	2
R. DunnF · #0	15	4	2-5	0-2	—	-15	6	0
G. AllenG · #8	30	16	7-12	1-5	1-2	+8	3	3
J. GoodwinG · #23	18	2	1-4	0-3	—	+4	2	5
J. GreenG · #4	4	4	1-3	0-1	2-2	+4	1	1
Team		103	42-95	11-34	8-9		42	24
DNP: N. Hayes-Davis, R. Fleming, N. Richards, K. Maluach

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. KispertF · #24	15	8	3-8	2-4	—	+4	3	1
O. OkongwuF · #17	36	25	9-15	3-5	4-4	+12	5	5
J. JohnsonF · #1	39	23	10-18	1-3	2-5	+15	18	9
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	33	13	4-12	2-5	3-3	+1	0	3
D. DanielsG · #5	37	8	4-6	—	—	+22	8	4
Bench
M. GueyeF · #18	9	1	0-1	0-1	1-2	-8	3	1
C. KolokoC · #35	12	2	1-2	—	—	-5	1	0
C. McCollumG · #3	29	21	9-15	2-4	1-2	-6	4	0
L. KennardG · #4	23	9	3-4	3-4	—	-5	6	4
V. KrejciG · #27	5	0	—	—	—	+5	0	1
Team		110	43-81	13-26	11-16		48	28
DNP: A. Newell, K. Wallace

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHX

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

42-95

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-81

FG %

11-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-26

8-9

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

11-16

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ATL wins series 2-0

Nov 17

ATL124@

PHX122

Jan 24

PHX103@

ATL110today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHX -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

233.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHX-14860%

ATL+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHX -3.5↗SpreadBet PHX -3.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

233.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ATL beat PHX 110-103. O. Okongwu paced them with 25 PTS, 5 REB, 5 AST. ATL outscored the other side 26-12 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs PHX

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHXstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 23 REB · 13 AST

GS 52

Bench(5)

34 PTS · 19 REB · 11 AST

GS 35

ATLstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 34 REB · 22 AST

GS 61

Bench(5)

33 PTS · 14 REB · 6 AST

GS 26

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHX3rd Quarter · 3:20 · 82-79

+13pp→ 67% WP

Christian Koloko · lost ball turnover (Grayson Allen steals)

PHX4th Quarter · 4:19 · 101-102

+13pp→ 38% WP

Collin Gillespie · makes 11-foot fade away jump shot

PHX4th Quarter · 3:08 · 103-105

+13pp→ 36% WP

CJ McCollum · misses free throw 2 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHX	31	28	32	12	103
ATL	27	37	20	26	110

Period scoring

PHX won 2 · ATL won 2

Allen 7

Okongwu 5

Booker 10

Alexander-Walker 61

Booker 16

Okongwu 7

Gillespie 7

Johnson 12

PHX

ATL

Shooting comparison

PHX

ATL

44%

42-95

53%

43-81

32%

11-34

3PT

50%

13-26

89%

8-9

69%

11-16

Play-by-play · 439 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 103·ATL 110
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 103·ATL 110
Q4·0.4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker lost ball turnover (Collin Gillespie steals)
·
PHX 103·ATL 110
Q4·14.5
Grayson Allen bad pass turnover (Nickeil Alexander-Walker steals)
·
PHX 103·ATL 110
+1pp
Q4·24.8
Onyeka Okongwu makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 103·ATL 110
−0.9pp
Q4·24.8
Onyeka Okongwu makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 103·ATL 109
Q4·24.8
Collin Gillespie personal take foul
PHX 103·ATL 108
+3pp
Q4·31.4
Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
PHX 103·ATL 108
+1pp
Q4·34.6
Grayson Allen misses 25-foot three point jumper
PHX 103·ATL 108
+3pp
Q4·36.6
Royce O'Neale enters the game for Mark Williams
·
PHX 103·ATL 108
Q4·36.6
Collin Gillespie enters the game for Jordan Goodwin
·
PHX 103·ATL 108
Q4·36.6
Suns Full timeout
PHX 103·ATL 108
Q4·36.6
Oso Ighodaro defensive rebound
PHX 103·ATL 108
Q4·36.9
Jalen Johnson misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
PHX 103·ATL 108
−6pp
Q4·36.9
Mark Williams enters the game for Collin Gillespie
·
PHX 103·ATL 108
Q4·36.9
Jordan Goodwin enters the game for Royce O'Neale
·
PHX 103·ATL 108
Q4·36.9
Jalen Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 103·ATL 108
+0.6pp
Q4·36.9
Grayson Allen personal foul
PHX 103·ATL 107
+5pp
Q4·38.0
Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
PHX 103·ATL 107
+2pp
Q4·41.8
Dillon Brooks misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHX 103·ATL 107
+5pp
Q4·48.1
Dillon Brooks defensive rebound
PHX 103·ATL 107
−1pp
Q4·50.8
CJ McCollum misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
PHX 103·ATL 107
−3pp
Q4·1:09
CJ McCollum defensive rebound
PHX 103·ATL 107
+2pp
Q4·1:11
Collin Gillespie misses 26-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
PHX 103·ATL 107
+5pp
Q4·1:23
Collin Gillespie defensive rebound
PHX 103·ATL 107
−1pp
Q4·1:28
Jalen Johnson misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHX 103·ATL 107
−4pp
Q4·1:52
Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
PHX 103·ATL 107
+2pp
Q4·1:55
Dillon Brooks misses 15-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
PHX 103·ATL 107
+6pp
Q4·2:19
Jalen Johnson makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
PHX 103·ATL 107
+8pp
Q4·2:41
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
PHX 103·ATL 105
+2pp

Betting line

PHX -3.5·O/U 233.5·PHX -148/ATL +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

tlanta Hawks held off Phoenix Suns, 110–103.

ATL +3.5 cashed (PHX lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 233.5 by 20.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
Devin BookerPHX · G
USG%31.397
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.397
Mark WilliamsPHX · C
CONT8.496

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHX favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHX

league avg

ATL

53.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

45.5%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.2%

112.2

PPG

114.9

▶

117.2

24.5

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

13.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR