NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8LAL

LAL

26-16

115107

DEN

29-15

NBATue, Jan 20FinalSeriesLAL lead series 1-0VegasLAL -3.5

LAL · top performer

Luka Doncic

G · #77

36.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DEN · top performer

Jamal Murray

G · #27

23.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLAL ↔ DEN

Biggest swing: 15pp · 2nd Quarter · 12:00

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	34	19	8-15	1-1	2-6	+13	9	8
J. LaRaviaF · #12	27	7	3-5	0-2	1-1	+4	1	2
D. AytonC · #5	15	4	2-5	—	—	-1	8	0
M. SmartG · #36	31	15	4-9	3-6	4-5	+6	2	1
L. DoncicG · #77	36	38	12-21	3-9	11-12	-2	13	10
Bench
R. HachimuraF · #28	28	9	4-13	1-3	—	-2	6	1
J. VanderbiltF · #2	18	0	0-2	0-1	—	-2	4	2
D. TimmeF · #17	11	9	4-6	1-1	0-1	+5	3	0
J. HayesC · #11	23	9	4-5	—	1-4	+16	5	0
G. VincentG · #7	17	5	1-2	1-2	2-3	+3	0	0
Team		115	42-83	10-25	21-32		51	24
DNP: M. Kleber, D. Knecht, K. Bufkin, B. James

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. GordonF · #32	32	18	6-9	2-4	4-8	-8	4	5
S. JonesF · #21	37	16	6-9	4-7	—	+6	5	0
J. MurrayG · #27	36	28	10-21	4-8	4-4	-3	2	11
J. PickettG · #24	26	7	3-9	1-2	—	-4	6	4
P. WatsonG · #8	38	18	7-17	4-8	—	-6	5	3
Bench
Z. NnajiF · #22	19	6	3-4	—	—	-4	3	0
T. Hardaway Jr.G · #10	31	10	2-12	0-8	6-7	0	2	2
B. BrownG · #11	22	4	2-6	—	—	-21	4	2
Team		107	39-87	15-37	14-19		31	27
DNP: H. Tyson, D. Holmes II, J. Strawther

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

LAL

Away

Stat

DEN

Home

42-83

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-87

FG %

10-25

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-37

21-32

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-19

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAL lead series 1-0

Jan 21

LAL115@

DEN107today

Mar 6

LAL113@

DEN120

Mar 15

DEN125@

LAL127

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAL -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

228.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAL-16662%

DEN+14042%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAL -3.5↗SpreadBet LAL -3.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

228.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAL beat DEN 115-107. L. Doncic stuffed the line with 38 PTS, 13 REB, and 10 AST. LAL outscored the other side 29-17 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DEN vs LAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LALstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 33 REB · 21 AST

GS 66

Bench(5)

32 PTS · 18 REB · 3 AST

GS 25

DENstarters 81% of pts

Starters(5)

87 PTS · 22 REB · 23 AST

GS 73

Bench(3)

20 PTS · 9 REB · 4 AST

GS 15

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LAL2nd Quarter · 10:57 · 33-37

+14pp→ 42% WP

Bruce Brown · misses driving floating jump shot

DEN2nd Quarter · 12:00 · 28-37

+15pp→ 72% WP

Spencer Jones · enters the game for Peyton Watson

LAL4th Quarter · 6:42 · 96-96

+11pp→ 65% WP

Bruce Brown · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LAL	28	29	29	29	115
DEN	37	34	17	19	107

Period scoring

LAL won 2 · DEN won 2

Doncic 16

Murray 13

Timme 7

Murray 19

James 9

Watson 6

Smart 12

Nnaji 6

LAL

DEN

Shooting comparison

LAL

DEN

51%

42-83

45%

39-87

40%

10-25

3PT

41%

15-37

66%

21-32

74%

14-19

Play-by-play · 465 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAL 115·DEN 107
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAL 115·DEN 107
Q4·12.9
shot clock turnover
LAL 115·DEN 107
Q4·36.8
Rui Hachimura defensive rebound
LAL 115·DEN 107
Q4·38.8
Jamal Murray misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot
LAL 115·DEN 107
−0.9pp
Q4·41.9
Nuggets Full timeout
LAL 115·DEN 107
Q4·41.9
Luka Doncic makes free throw 2 of 2
LAL 115·DEN 107
Q4·41.9
Jamal Murray enters the game for Spencer Jones
·
LAL 114·DEN 107
Q4·41.9
Lakers offensive team rebound
LAL 114·DEN 107
+0.5pp
Q4·41.9
Luka Doncic misses free throw 1 of 2
LAL 114·DEN 107
Q4·41.9
Tim Hardaway Jr. personal take foul
LAL 114·DEN 107
−0.9pp
Q4·43.3
Gabe Vincent enters the game for Jaxson Hayes
·
LAL 114·DEN 107
Q4·43.3
Spencer Jones enters the game for Jamal Murray
·
LAL 114·DEN 107
Q4·43.3
Lakers Full timeout
LAL 114·DEN 107
Q4·43.3
Aaron Gordon makes dunk (Jamal Murray assists)
·
LAL 114·DEN 107
+0.5pp
Q4·45.3
Bruce Brown enters the game for Spencer Jones
·
LAL 114·DEN 105
Q4·45.3
Nuggets Full timeout
LAL 114·DEN 105
Q4·45.3
Luka Doncic makes free throw 2 of 2
LAL 114·DEN 105
Q4·45.3
Luka Doncic makes free throw 1 of 2
LAL 113·DEN 105
Q4·45.3
Spencer Jones personal take foul
LAL 112·DEN 105
−1pp
Q4·49.1
Rui Hachimura offensive rebound
LAL 112·DEN 105
−2pp
Q4·51.0
Marcus Smart misses free throw 2 of 2
LAL 112·DEN 105
+3pp
Q4·51.0
Marcus Smart makes free throw 1 of 2
LAL 112·DEN 105
Q4·51.0
Spencer Jones personal take foul
LAL 111·DEN 105
−3pp
Q4·1:05
Jamal Murray makes 12-foot fade away jump shot
LAL 111·DEN 105
+1pp
Q4·1:17
Luka Doncic offensive foul turnover
LAL 111·DEN 103
Q4·1:17
Luka Doncic offensive charge
LAL 111·DEN 103
+1pp
Q4·1:33
Aaron Gordon makes free throw 2 of 2
LAL 111·DEN 103
Q4·1:33
Nuggets offensive team rebound
LAL 111·DEN 102
−1pp
Q4·1:33
Aaron Gordon misses free throw 1 of 2
LAL 111·DEN 102
+2pp

Betting line

LAL -3.5·O/U 228.5·LAL -166/DEN +140

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers went into Denver Nuggets and beat them, 115–107.

LAL -3.5 cashed (won by 8). Total stayed UNDER 228.5 by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
Deandre AytonLAL · C
CONT10.399
Jamal MurrayDEN · G
TOUCHES82.297
LeBron JamesLAL · F
TOUCHES78.997
Aaron GordonDEN · F
CONT6.790

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · LAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DEN vs LAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Luka DoncicLAL
35.3± 12.2high
Nikola JokicDEN
26.6± 7.0high
Jamal MurrayDEN
24.2± 8.1high

Rebounds

Nikola JokicDEN
12.5± 3.1high
Walker KesslerLAL
10.7± 2.2low
Deandre AytonLAL
9.1± 4.7high

Assists

Nikola JokicDEN
9.7± 4.5high
Luka DoncicLAL
7.6± 3.5high
Jamal MurrayDEN
6.4± 1.9high

Blocks

Walker KesslerLAL
1.8± 2.5low
Nikola JokicDEN
1.0± 1.0high
Deandre AytonLAL
0.9± 0.6high

Steals

Luka DoncicLAL
2.0± 1.4high
Collin SextonLAL
1.6± 1.3high
Walker KesslerLAL
1.5± 1.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

LAL

league avg

DEN

57.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

57.2%

49.9%

FG%

◀

47.0

49.2%

114.8

PPG

114.9

▶

121.1

25.7

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.7

14.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR