NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5HOU

30-14

106111

HOU

26-15

NBATue, Jan 20FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasHOU -4.5

SA · top performer

Julian Champagnie

F · #30

23.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

HOU · top performer

Alperen Sengun

C · #28

21.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSA ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 16pp · 4th Quarter · 3:28

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. BarnesF · #40	25	6	2-6	2-5	—	-2	2	1
J. ChampagnieF · #30	34	27	8-17	8-16	3-3	+5	8	2
V. WembanyamaF · #1	30	14	5-21	0-7	4-4	-14	10	2
D. FoxG · #4	32	14	6-15	2-6	—	-7	3	5
S. CastleG · #5	35	13	5-19	2-8	1-1	-12	7	8
Bench
K. JohnsonF · #3	27	12	5-9	0-3	2-2	-2	6	0
C. BryantF · #11	11	4	2-4	0-2	—	+2	0	0
L. KornetC · #7	24	8	4-5	—	—	+3	6	1
D. HarperG · #2	23	8	4-9	0-3	—	+2	3	5
Team		106	41-105	14-50	10-10		45	24
DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, J. Sochan, B. Biyombo, J. McLaughlin

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	39	18	7-12	2-4	2-2	+1	4	7
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	35	17	7-13	2-5	1-3	+1	4	1
A. SengunC · #28	34	20	7-13	1-3	5-5	-2	13	9
J. OkogieG · #20	17	5	2-2	1-1	0-3	-9	1	0
A. ThompsonG · #1	39	16	6-14	0-2	4-5	+7	10	6
Bench
D. Finney-SmithF · #2	15	2	1-3	0-2	—	+9	1	1
T. EasonF · #17	20	6	3-6	—	—	-3	6	1
C. CapelaC · #30	12	6	2-3	—	2-2	+6	2	0
R. SheppardG · #15	29	21	8-17	4-10	1-2	+15	2	4
Team		111	43-83	10-27	15-22		43	29
DNP: J. Green, J. Tate, A. Holiday, J. Davison

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

41-105

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-83

FG %

14-50

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-27

10-10

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-22

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 8

HOU110@

SA121

Jan 21

SA106@

HOU111today

Jan 29

SA111@

HOU99

Mar 9

HOU120@

SA145

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

220.5

Standard · -5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SA+14541%

HOU-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -4.5↗SpreadBet HOU -4.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

220.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

HOU beat SA 111-106. A. Sengun led with 20 PTS, 13 REB, 9 AST. HOU outscored the other side 29-14 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

HOU vs SA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SAstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

74 PTS · 30 REB · 18 AST

GS 49

Bench(4)

32 PTS · 15 REB · 6 AST

GS 31

HOUstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

76 PTS · 32 REB · 23 AST

GS 68

Bench(4)

35 PTS · 11 REB · 6 AST

GS 28

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

HOU4th Quarter · 5:31 · 98-96

+11pp→ 33% WP

Reed Sheppard · makes 29-foot three point jumper (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)

HOU4th Quarter · 4:45 · 98-99

+14pp→ 54% WP

Reed Sheppard · makes 26-foot three pointer

HOU4th Quarter · 3:28 · 102-104

+16pp→ 62% WP

Jabari Smith Jr. · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SA	39	31	22	14	106
HOU	28	32	22	29	111

Period scoring

SA won 1 · HOU won 2

Champagnie 15

Durant 7

Wembanyama 10

Sengun 8

Castle 8

Sengun 6

Harper 4

Sheppard 12

HOU

Shooting comparison

HOU

39%

41-105

52%

43-83

28%

14-50

3PT

37%

10-27

100%

10-10

68%

15-22

Play-by-play · 476 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SA 106·HOU 111
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SA 106·HOU 111
Q4·1.9
Victor Wembanyama makes tip in dunk
SA 106·HOU 111
Q4·1.9
Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound
SA 104·HOU 111
Q4·3.7
Stephon Castle misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
SA 104·HOU 111
Q4·7.8
Amen Thompson makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 104·HOU 111
Q4·7.8
Amen Thompson makes free throw 1 of 2
SA 104·HOU 110
Q4·7.8
Julian Champagnie personal take foul
SA 104·HOU 109
+0.8pp
Q4·7.8
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
SA 104·HOU 109
+0.9pp
Q4·9.3
Victor Wembanyama misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot
SA 104·HOU 109
+3pp
Q4·12.5
Harrison Barnes enters the game for Luke Kornet
·
SA 104·HOU 109
Q4·12.5
Tari Eason enters the game for Josh Okogie
·
SA 104·HOU 109
Q4·12.5
Dorian Finney-Smith enters the game for Reed Sheppard
·
SA 104·HOU 109
Q4·12.5
Spurs Full timeout
SA 104·HOU 109
Q4·12.5
Reed Sheppard makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 104·HOU 109
Q4·12.5
Luke Kornet enters the game for Keldon Johnson
·
SA 104·HOU 108
Q4·12.5
Josh Okogie enters the game for Alperen Sengun
·
SA 104·HOU 108
Q4·12.5
Rockets offensive team rebound
SA 104·HOU 108
−2pp
Q4·12.5
Reed Sheppard misses free throw 1 of 2
SA 104·HOU 108
−1pp
Q4·12.5
Stephon Castle personal take foul
SA 104·HOU 108
+0.8pp
Q4·14.1
Victor Wembanyama enters the game for Dylan Harper
·
SA 104·HOU 108
Q4·14.1
Rockets Full timeout
SA 104·HOU 108
Q4·18.8
Dylan Harper enters the game for Luke Kornet
·
SA 104·HOU 108
Q4·18.8
Keldon Johnson enters the game for Victor Wembanyama
·
SA 104·HOU 108
Q4·18.8
De'Aaron Fox personal take foulBIG MOMENT
SA 104·HOU 108
+6pp
Q4·20.4
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
SA 104·HOU 108
+2pp
Q4·22.9
Stephon Castle misses 26-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
SA 104·HOU 108
+5pp
Q4·24.1
Julian Champagnie offensive rebound
SA 104·HOU 108
−4pp
Q4·27.9
Victor Wembanyama misses 26-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
SA 104·HOU 108
+7pp
Q4·36.8
Alperen Sengun makes 8-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
SA 104·HOU 108
+8pp

Betting line

HOU -4.5·O/U 220.5·SA +145/HOU -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ouston Rockets held off San Antonio Spurs, 111–106. Decided by 5.

HOU -4.5 cashed (won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 220.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Luke KornetSA · C
TS%68.797

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs SA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Amen ThompsonHOU
20.2± 7.7high
Alperen SengunHOU
19.1± 6.9high

Rebounds

Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU
7.4± 2.5high

Assists

De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high
Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high

Blocks

Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high
Kevin DurantHOU
1.0± 1.1high
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU
0.8± 0.8high

Steals

Marcus SmartHOU
2.1± 1.8high
Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
Tari EasonHOU
1.8± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

HOU

55.3%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.7%

47.7%

FG%

47.0

47.4%

118.2

PPG

◀

114.9

114.1

27.3

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.1

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR