NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4LAC

LAC

19-23

110106

WSH

10-32

NBAMon, Jan 19FinalSeriesLAC win series 2-0VegasLAC -6.5

LAC · top performer

James Harden

G · #1

33.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WSH · top performer

Alex Sarr

C · #20

24.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLAC ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 32pp · 3rd Quarter · 8:38

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. CollinsF · #20	26	11	5-7	1-3	—	+2	4	0
I. ZubacC · #40	30	14	7-10	—	—	-3	12	1
J. HardenG · #1	37	36	9-17	0-5	18-20	-3	7	9
K. DunnG · #8	39	10	3-6	1-2	3-4	-2	5	4
K. SandersG · #4	22	8	3-11	2-5	—	-15	3	1
Bench
N. BatumF · #33	19	3	1-4	1-4	—	+3	3	1
B. LopezC · #11	20	6	2-7	0-5	2-2	+3	2	0
J. MillerG · #22	28	16	5-11	0-2	6-8	+19	5	3
C. ChristieG · #12	19	6	1-5	0-2	4-4	+16	2	1
Team		110	36-78	5-28	33-38		43	20
DNP: Y. Niederhauser, K. Brown, P. Baldwin Jr., T. Washington Jr.

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. MiddletonF · #22	28	11	3-10	2-5	3-3	+6	5	5
K. GeorgeF · #18	34	18	6-16	2-6	4-5	+4	6	6
A. SarrC · #20	31	28	10-19	2-5	6-6	+11	6	2
B. CarringtonG · #7	37	17	7-12	3-7	—	+3	6	7
T. JohnsonG · #12	30	15	6-12	3-7	—	+14	1	5
Bench
M. Bagley IIIF · #35	17	6	2-5	—	2-2	-15	8	1
J. ChampagnieF · #9	26	9	3-5	1-2	2-2	-10	4	0
J. WatkinsG · #5	19	1	0-2	0-1	1-2	-12	7	1
W. RileyG · #27	18	1	0-5	0-2	1-2	-21	2	0
Team		106	37-86	13-35	19-22		45	27
DNP: A. Gill, M. Branham, AJ Johnson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

LAC

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

36-78

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

37-86

FG %

5-28

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-35

33-38

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-22

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAC win series 2-0

Jan 15

WSH105@

LAC119

Jan 19

LAC110@

WSH106today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAC -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

227.5

Standard · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAC-25872%

WSH+21032%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAC -6.5↗SpreadBet LAC -6.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

227.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAC beat WSH 110-106. J. Harden led the way with 36 points and 9 assists. Kobe Sanders's play in the 3rd quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (32pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

WSH vs LAC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LACstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 31 REB · 15 AST

GS 66

Bench(4)

31 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST

GS 28

WSHstarters 84% of pts

Starters(5)

89 PTS · 24 REB · 25 AST

GS 71

Bench(4)

17 PTS · 21 REB · 2 AST

GS 10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LAC2nd Quarter · 6:08 · 37-37

+27pp→ 69% WP

Khris Middleton · misses driving layup

WSH3rd Quarter · 8:38 · 58-64

+32pp→ 63% WP

Kobe Sanders · bad pass turnover (Alex Sarr steals)

WSH3rd Quarter · 1:54 · 75-78

+23pp→ 53% WP

Kyshawn George · out of bounds lost ball turnover

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LAC	26	28	25	31	110
WSH	26	27	28	25	106

Period scoring

LAC won 2 · WSH won 1

Harden 11

Sarr 12

Harden 7

George 40

Harden 10

Sanders 27

Miller 11

III 7

LAC

WSH

Shooting comparison

LAC

WSH

46%

36-78

43%

37-86

18%

5-28

3PT

37%

13-35

87%

33-38

86%

19-22

Play-by-play · 489 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAC 110·WSH 106
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAC 110·WSH 106
−0.7pp
Q4·2.1
Bub Carrington bad pass turnover (Jordan Miller steals)
·
LAC 110·WSH 106
−3pp
Q4·3.5
Nicolas Batum enters the game for Ivica Zubac
·
LAC 110·WSH 106
Q4·3.5
Bub Carrington enters the game for Marvin Bagley III
·
LAC 110·WSH 106
Q4·3.5
Tre Johnson enters the game for Jamir Watkins
· ·
LAC 110·WSH 106
Q4·3.5
Wizards Full timeout
LAC 110·WSH 106
Q4·3.5
James Harden makes free throw 2 of 2
LAC 110·WSH 106
+2pp
Q4·3.5
Marvin Bagley III enters the game for Bub Carrington
·
LAC 109·WSH 106
Q4·3.5
James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2
LAC 109·WSH 106
Q4·3.5
Jamir Watkins personal foul
LAC 108·WSH 106
−4pp
Q4·3.9
James Harden offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
LAC 108·WSH 106
−11pp
Q4·5.9
James Harden misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LAC 108·WSH 106
+8pp
Q4·5.9
Jamir Watkins enters the game for Tre Johnson
· ·
LAC 108·WSH 106
Q4·5.9
Clippers offensive team rebound
LAC 108·WSH 106
+4pp
Q4·5.9
James Harden misses free throw 1 of 2
LAC 108·WSH 106
+2pp
Q4·5.9
Khris Middleton personal foulBIG MOMENT
LAC 108·WSH 106
−6pp
Q4·6.3
James Harden defensive reboundBIG MOMENT
LAC 108·WSH 106
−8pp
Q4·9.4
Kyshawn George misses 33-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
LAC 108·WSH 106
−12pp
Q4·13.9
Kyshawn George defensive rebound
LAC 108·WSH 106
+2pp
Q4·17.6
Jordan Miller misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
LAC 108·WSH 106
+7pp
Q4·29.0
John Collins defensive rebound
LAC 108·WSH 106
−4pp
Q4·31.9
Kyshawn George misses 20-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
LAC 108·WSH 106
−10pp
Q4·36.9
Wizards Full timeout
LAC 108·WSH 106
Q4·36.9
James Harden makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LAC 108·WSH 106
+10pp
Q4·36.9
James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2
LAC 107·WSH 106
−3pp
Q4·36.9
Tre Johnson shooting foulBIG MOMENT
·
LAC 106·WSH 106
−18pp
Q4·57.6
Khris Middleton makes free throw 3 of 3BIG MOMENT
LAC 106·WSH 106
−6pp
Q4·57.6
John Collins enters the game for Nicolas Batum
·
LAC 106·WSH 105
Q4·57.6
Khris Middleton makes free throw 2 of 3BIG MOMENT
LAC 106·WSH 105
+9pp

Betting line

LAC -6.5·O/U 227.5·LAC -258/WSH +210

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

A Clippers went into Washington Wizards and beat them, 110–106. Decided by 4.

WSH +6.5 cashed (LAC won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 227.5 by 11.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Alex SarrWSH · C
CONT9.498
Ivica ZubacIND · C
CONT9.298
Kris DunnLAC · G
DEFL3.697
Brook LopezLAC · C
CONT8.396
James HardenCLE · G
DRIVES12.694

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · LAC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs LAC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Anthony DavisWSH
20.5± 9.2high
Darius GarlandLAC
19.0± 5.5high
Brandon IngramLAC
18.7± 10.3high

Rebounds

Anthony DavisWSH
11.3± 4.3high
Julian ReeseWSH
10.5± 6.4low
Deandre AytonWSH
9.1± 4.7high

Assists

Darius GarlandLAC
6.3± 2.3high
Bub CarringtonWSH
5.1± 1.9high
Kris DunnLAC
3.8± 2.7high

Blocks

Anthony DavisWSH
1.7± 1.5high
Alex SarrWSH
1.6± 1.4high
Brook LopezLAC
1.3± 1.4high

Steals

Kris DunnLAC
1.6± 1.1high
Julian ReeseWSH
1.4± 1.7low
Leaky BlackWSH
1.4± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

LAC

league avg

WSH

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.5%

48.5%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.3%

113.9

PPG

114.9

112.9

23.8

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.0

13.6

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR