NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7POR

POR

22-22

117110

SAC

12-31

NBASun, Jan 18FinalSeriesPOR leads series 3-0VegasPOR -1.5

POR · top performer

Deni Avdija

F · #8

27.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SAC · top performer

Russell Westbrook

G · #18

21.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPOR ↔ SAC

Biggest swing: 21pp · 2nd Quarter · 3.0

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. CamaraF · #33	36	17	7-7	1-1	2-2	+16	3	2
D. AvdijaF · #8	32	30	10-18	2-6	8-8	+4	8	8
D. ClinganC · #23	37	21	6-9	1-2	8-8	+17	17	3
S. SharpeG · #17	34	27	8-19	3-9	8-11	0	7	0
S. CissokoG · #91	34	8	2-7	1-4	3-4	+10	2	1
Bench
D. ReathC · #26	12	0	0-2	0-2	—	-11	1	1
Y. HansenC · #16	9	2	1-3	0-1	—	-7	0	1
C. LoveG · #2	22	6	3-10	0-4	—	+14	2	1
J. CookeG · #18	7	2	1-4	0-3	—	-1	1	0
R. RupertG · #21	16	4	2-4	—	—	-7	2	1
Team		117	40-83	8-32	29-33		43	18
DNP: J. Grant, K. Murray, R. Williams III, J. Holiday, M. Thybulle

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	18	4	2-3	0-1	—	-14	3	2
M. RaynaudC · #42	23	6	3-11	0-2	—	-4	9	1
R. WestbrookG · #18	34	23	9-15	3-6	2-3	-7	3	7
D. DeRozanG · #10	35	14	6-11	0-1	2-3	-14	2	7
Z. LaVineG · #8	29	18	5-13	3-8	5-6	-7	0	1
Bench
D. SabonisF · #11	20	8	2-3	0-1	4-4	+1	8	2
D. CardwellC · #32	26	12	5-8	—	2-2	+3	10	2
D. SchroderG · #17	18	2	1-5	0-2	—	-6	2	3
M. MonkG · #0	26	23	9-15	5-9	—	+6	1	2
N. CliffordG · #5	13	0	0-2	0-1	—	+7	2	2
Team		110	42-86	11-31	15-18		40	29
DNP: D. McDermott, D. Saric, D. Eubanks, D. Carter

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

POR

Away

Stat

SAC

Home

40-83

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-86

FG %

8-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-31

29-33

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

POR leads series 3-0

Dec 19

SAC133@

POR134

Dec 21

POR98@

SAC93

Jan 19

POR117@

SAC110today

Apr 13

SAC110@

POR122

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

POR -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

230.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

POR-11854%

SAC-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet POR -1.5↗SpreadBet POR -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

230.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

POR beat SAC 117-110. D. Avdija paced them with 30 PTS, 8 REB, 8 AST. POR outscored the other side 32-21 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SAC vs POR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PORstarters 88% of pts

Starters(5)

103 PTS · 37 REB · 14 AST

GS 86

Bench(5)

14 PTS · 6 REB · 4 AST

GS 6

SACstarters 59% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 17 REB · 18 AST

GS 51

Bench(5)

45 PTS · 23 REB · 11 AST

GS 35

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

POR2nd Quarter · 4:14 · 49-45

+6pp→ 61% WP

Deni Avdija · makes 30-foot three pointer

POR2nd Quarter · 3.0 · 64-53

+21pp→ 84% WP

Deni Avdija · blocks Zach LaVine's driving floating jump shot

SAC4th Quarter · 18.1 · 112-107

+9pp→ 16% WP

Deni Avdija · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
POR	32	32	29	24	117
SAC	32	21	29	28	110

Period scoring

POR won 1 · SAC won 1

Avdija 15

Westbrook 11

Camara 9

Avdija 14

Sharpe 14

Love 21

Clingan 10

Monk 10

POR

SAC

Shooting comparison

POR

SAC

48%

40-83

49%

42-86

25%

8-32

3PT

35%

11-31

88%

29-33

83%

15-18

Play-by-play · 469 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
POR 117·SAC 110
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
POR 117·SAC 110
Q4·1.0
Deni Avdija makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 117·SAC 110
Q4·1.0
Deni Avdija makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 116·SAC 110
Q4·1.0
Maxime Raynaud enters the game for Dylan Cardwell
·
POR 115·SAC 110
Q4·1.0
Dylan Cardwell personal take foul
POR 115·SAC 110
Q4·3.6
Russell Westbrook makes 4-foot driving dunk
POR 115·SAC 110
Q4·8.8
Dylan Cardwell defensive rebound
POR 115·SAC 108
Q4·9.9
Shaedon Sharpe misses free throw 2 of 2
POR 115·SAC 108
Q4·9.9
Shaedon Sharpe makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 115·SAC 108
Q4·9.9
DeMar DeRozan personal take foul
POR 114·SAC 108
Q4·9.9
Shaedon Sharpe defensive rebound
POR 114·SAC 108
−0.7pp
Q4·13.6
Zach LaVine misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot
POR 114·SAC 108
−1pp
Q4·16.2
Rayan Rupert enters the game for Donovan Clingan
·
POR 114·SAC 108
Q4·16.2
Kings Full timeout
POR 114·SAC 108
Q4·16.2
Deni Avdija makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 114·SAC 108
+1pp
Q4·16.2
Dylan Cardwell enters the game for Dennis Schroder
·
POR 113·SAC 108
Q4·16.2
Deni Avdija makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 113·SAC 108
−0.5pp
Q4·16.2
Russell Westbrook personal take foul
POR 112·SAC 108
−4pp
Q4·18.1
Russell Westbrook makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 112·SAC 108
−0.5pp
Q4·18.1
Dennis Schroder enters the game for Dylan Cardwell
·
POR 112·SAC 107
Q4·18.1
Kings offensive team rebound
POR 112·SAC 107
−4pp
Q4·18.1
Russell Westbrook misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
POR 112·SAC 107
−5pp
Q4·18.1
Deni Avdija shooting foulBIG MOMENT
POR 112·SAC 107
+9pp
Q4·20.3
Dylan Cardwell defensive rebound
POR 112·SAC 107
Q4·22.9
Shaedon Sharpe misses driving floating jump shot
POR 112·SAC 107
+0.7pp
Q4·44.9
Deni Avdija defensive rebound
POR 112·SAC 107
−2pp
Q4·48.3
Malik Monk misses 28-foot running jump shot
POR 112·SAC 107
−4pp
Q4·51.2
DeMar DeRozan defensive rebound
POR 112·SAC 107
+0.9pp
Q4·54.6
Shaedon Sharpe misses layup
POR 112·SAC 107
+3pp

Betting line

POR -1.5·O/U 230.5·POR -118/SAC -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ortland Trail Blazers went into Sacramento Kings and beat them, 117–110.

POR -1.5 cashed (won by 7). Total stayed UNDER 230.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Deni AvdijaPOR · F
DRIVES20.899+
Shaedon SharpePOR · G
USG%29.996
Donovan ClinganPOR · C
CONT7.694
Maxime RaynaudSAC · C
CONT7.593
Russell WestbrookSAC · G
DRIVES11.692

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · POR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SAC vs POR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Deni AvdijaPOR
25.3± 7.7high
Ja MorantPOR
19.6± 8.8high
Damian LillardPOR
19.2± 8.2high

Rebounds

Domantas SabonisSAC
10.6± 3.5high
Donovan ClinganPOR
10.3± 2.7high
Maxime RaynaudSAC
8.3± 2.4high

Assists

Ja MorantPOR
8.1± 3.9high
Deni AvdijaPOR
6.3± 3.2high
Jrue HolidayPOR
6.3± 3.0high

Blocks

Dylan CardwellSAC
1.7± 1.7high
Donovan ClinganPOR
1.5± 1.2high
Keegan MurraySAC
1.4± 0.8high

Steals

Matisse ThybullePOR
1.7± 1.8high
Toumani CamaraPOR
1.4± 1.4high
Scoot HendersonPOR
1.2± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

POR

league avg

SAC

53.0%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

45.1%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.7%

114.6

PPG

◀

114.9

111.0

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.5

16.2

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR