NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+23CHA

CHA

16-27

11087

DEN

29-14

NBASun, Jan 18FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCHA -2.5

CHA · top performer

Ryan Kalkbrenner

C · #11

15.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DEN · top performer

Julian Strawther

G · #3

15.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHA ↔ DEN

Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 11:39

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	23	7	3-6	0-2	1-1	+19	4	1
M. DiabateF · #14	25	4	2-6	—	—	+6	9	2
B. MillerF · #24	24	23	8-15	4-9	3-4	+16	4	1
L. BallG · #1	19	10	4-11	2-7	—	+22	1	6
K. KnueppelG · #7	27	14	5-11	2-4	2-2	+18	4	3
Bench
T. SalaunF · #31	22	13	6-8	1-2	0-1	+6	11	2
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	23	17	8-10	—	1-1	+17	6	1
P. ConnaughtonG · #21	6	3	1-2	1-1	—	0	1	3
C. SextonG · #8	20	14	5-10	0-4	4-4	+13	2	5
J. GreenG · #10	13	3	1-3	1-2	—	+5	3	0
T. MannG · #23	12	2	1-3	0-1	—	-7	2	1
S. JamesG · #4	26	0	0-4	0-2	—	0	5	5
Team		110	44-89	11-34	11-13		52	30

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. Holmes IIF · #14	26	7	2-7	2-7	1-2	-11	3	2
S. JonesF · #21	31	2	1-3	0-1	—	-27	6	0
J. MurrayG · #27	25	16	7-12	0-2	2-2	-22	1	2
J. PickettG · #24	34	12	4-7	2-4	2-2	-8	5	7
P. WatsonG · #8	29	11	4-12	0-4	3-4	-29	4	0
Bench
H. TysonF · #5	21	1	0-9	0-8	1-2	-12	2	2
Z. NnajiF · #22	23	8	4-10	0-2	—	+9	5	1
T. Hardaway Jr.G · #10	13	6	1-5	1-5	3-3	-9	1	2
B. BrownG · #11	18	9	4-7	1-2	—	-3	0	3
J. StrawtherG · #3	20	15	5-7	2-3	3-3	-3	2	2
Team		87	32-79	8-38	15-18		29	21
DNP: A. Gordon

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHA

Away

Stat

DEN

Home

44-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

32-79

FG %

11-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-38

11-13

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 7

DEN115@

CHA106

Jan 19

CHA110@

DEN87today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHA -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

225.5

Standard · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHA-13557%

DEN+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHA -2.5↗SpreadBet CHA -2.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

225.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHA beat DEN 110-87. R. Kalkbrenner led with 17 PTS, 6 REB, 1 AST. CHA outscored the other side 33-18 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DEN vs CHA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHAstarters 53% of pts

Starters(5)

58 PTS · 22 REB · 13 AST

GS 46

Bench(7)

52 PTS · 30 REB · 17 AST

GS 48

DENstarters 55% of pts

Starters(5)

48 PTS · 19 REB · 11 AST

GS 37

Bench(5)

39 PTS · 10 REB · 10 AST

GS 28

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHA	33	27	27	23	110
DEN	18	16	23	30	87

Period scoring

CHA won 3 · DEN won 1

Miller 11

Murray 8

Sexton 9

Watson 9

Ball 5

Murray 6

Kalkbrenner 13

II 10

CHA

DEN

Shooting comparison

CHA

DEN

49%

44-89

41%

32-79

32%

11-34

3PT

21%

8-38

85%

11-13

83%

15-18

Play-by-play · 431 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHA 110·DEN 87
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHA 110·DEN 87
Q4·24.4
Jalen Pickett makes 26-foot three point jumper (Hunter Tyson assists)
·
CHA 110·DEN 87
Q4·37.0
Ryan Kalkbrenner makes dunk (Sion James assists)
·
CHA 110·DEN 84
Q4·59.4
Julian Strawther makes driving layup (Zeke Nnaji assists)
·
CHA 108·DEN 84
Q4·1:10
shot clock turnover
CHA 108·DEN 82
Q4·1:10
Tidjane Salaun offensive rebound
CHA 108·DEN 82
Q4·1:10
Ryan Kalkbrenner misses 6-foot floating jump shot
CHA 108·DEN 82
Q4·1:31
Sion James defensive rebound
CHA 108·DEN 82
Q4·1:34
DaRon Holmes II misses free throw 2 of 2
CHA 108·DEN 82
Q4·1:34
DaRon Holmes II makes free throw 1 of 2
CHA 108·DEN 82
Q4·1:34
Tidjane Salaun personal foul
CHA 108·DEN 81
Q4·1:34
DaRon Holmes II offensive rebound
CHA 108·DEN 81
Q4·1:37
Zeke Nnaji misses 26-foot three point jumper
CHA 108·DEN 81
Q4·1:53
Ryan Kalkbrenner makes 2-foot dunk (Pat Connaughton assists)
·
CHA 108·DEN 81
Q4·2:13
Julian Strawther makes free throw 1 of 1
CHA 106·DEN 81
Q4·2:13
Tidjane Salaun shooting foul
CHA 106·DEN 80
Q4·2:13
Julian Strawther makes running layup
CHA 106·DEN 80
Q4·2:18
Julian Strawther defensive rebound
CHA 106·DEN 78
Q4·2:20
Sion James misses two point shot
CHA 106·DEN 78
Q4·2:26
Sion James defensive rebound
CHA 106·DEN 78
Q4·2:29
Jalen Pickett misses 24-foot three point jumper
CHA 106·DEN 78
Q4·2:44
Ryan Kalkbrenner makes two point shot
CHA 106·DEN 78
Q4·2:44
Ryan Kalkbrenner offensive rebound
CHA 104·DEN 78
Q4·2:48
Pat Connaughton misses two point shot
CHA 104·DEN 78
Q4·2:59
Tidjane Salaun defensive rebound
CHA 104·DEN 78
Q4·3:01
Julian Strawther misses running pullup jump shot
CHA 104·DEN 78
Q4·3:05
Jalen Pickett defensive rebound
CHA 104·DEN 78
Q4·3:10
Tidjane Salaun misses 27-foot three point jumper
CHA 104·DEN 78
Q4·3:33
Jalen Pickett makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot
CHA 104·DEN 78

Betting line

CHA -2.5·O/U 225.5·CHA -135/DEN +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

harlotte Hornets went into Denver Nuggets and beat them, 110–87. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

CHA -2.5 cashed (won by 23). Total stayed UNDER 225.5 by 28.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
Jamal MurrayDEN · G
TOUCHES82.297
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397
Moussa DiabateCHA · F
CONT7.794
Brandon MillerCHA · F
USG%27.893

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHA

league avg

DEN

55.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.2%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.2%

115.8

PPG

114.9

▶

121.1

26.2

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.7

14.4

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR