NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+17MEM

ORL

23-19

109126

MEM

18-23

NBASun, Jan 18FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasORL -2.5

ORL · top performer

Wendell Carter Jr.

C · #34

19.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MEM · top performer

Ja Morant

G · #12

25.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowORL ↔ MEM

Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 7:45

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	36	16	7-20	1-4	1-1	-7	8	9
F. WagnerF · #22	26	14	5-13	0-2	4-4	-20	4	3
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	33	18	6-11	4-7	2-2	-15	7	4
D. BaneG · #3	37	11	4-12	1-4	2-2	-20	4	3
A. BlackG · #0	37	19	7-15	2-6	3-4	-14	2	6
Bench
J. IsaacF · #1	3	0	0-1	0-1	—	+4	0	0
J. CainF · #8	3	2	1-1	—	—	+4	0	0
T. da SilvaF · #23	18	4	2-5	0-1	—	-7	3	0
N. PendaF · #93	8	5	1-4	1-4	2-2	-9	2	0
G. BitadzeC · #35	15	9	4-4	—	1-1	-2	6	1
T. JonesG · #2	3	0	0-1	0-1	—	-6	2	1
J. RichardsonG · #11	20	11	5-8	1-3	—	+7	4	3
Team		109	42-95	10-33	15-16		42	30
DNP: M. Wagner

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. Jackson Jr.F · #8	30	17	7-15	2-4	1-1	+17	5	0
S. AldamaF · #7	25	9	3-5	0-1	3-6	+23	5	3
C. CowardF · #23	23	13	6-10	0-3	1-1	+18	4	3
J. WellsF · #0	21	10	3-5	3-4	1-2	+2	2	0
J. MorantG · #12	28	24	7-13	3-4	7-9	+26	5	13
Bench
GG JacksonF · #45	18	7	3-7	0-2	1-2	+6	4	0
J. LandaleC · #31	23	21	9-11	1-2	2-2	+4	8	3
K. Caldwell-PopeG · #3	17	7	3-8	1-4	—	+6	1	1
J. KoncharG · #46	17	3	1-3	0-1	1-2	-4	3	3
V. Williams Jr.G · #5	20	5	2-8	1-6	—	-9	5	2
C. SpencerG · #24	18	10	4-6	2-4	—	-4	0	3
Team		126	48-91	13-35	17-25		42	31
DNP: S. Pippen Jr.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ORL

Away

Stat

MEM

Home

42-95

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

48-91

FG %

10-33

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-35

15-16

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-25

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 15

MEM111@

ORL118

Jan 18

ORL109@

MEM126today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ORL -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

229.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ORL-14259%

MEM+12045%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ORL -2.5↗SpreadBet ORL -2.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

229.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MEM beat ORL 126-109. J. Morant led with 24 PTS, 5 REB, 13 AST. MEM outscored the other side 40-23 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MEM vs ORL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ORLstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 25 REB · 25 AST

GS 58

Bench(7)

31 PTS · 17 REB · 5 AST

GS 24

MEMstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

73 PTS · 21 REB · 19 AST

GS 63

Bench(6)

53 PTS · 21 REB · 12 AST

GS 51

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ORL	23	30	28	28	109
MEM	40	32	28	26	126

Period scoring

ORL won 1 · MEM won 2

Wagner 6

Landale 8

Jr. 11

Morant 15

Black 7

Jackson 9

Banchero 5

Landale 6

ORL

MEM

Shooting comparison

ORL

MEM

44%

42-95

53%

48-91

30%

10-33

3PT

37%

13-35

94%

15-16

68%

17-25

Play-by-play · 492 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ORL 109·MEM 126
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ORL 109·MEM 126
Q4·6.3
Goga Bitadze makes dunk
ORL 109·MEM 126
Q4·7.7
Goga Bitadze offensive rebound
ORL 107·MEM 126
Q4·10.1
Jonathan Isaac misses 25-foot three point jumper
ORL 107·MEM 126
Q4·18.4
Jase Richardson defensive rebound
ORL 107·MEM 126
Q4·22.2
Jaylen Wells misses 13-foot two point shot
ORL 107·MEM 126
Q4·35.6
Jamal Cain lost ball turnover (John Konchar steals)
·
ORL 107·MEM 126
Q4·44.0
John Konchar makes layup (Cam Spencer assists)
·
ORL 107·MEM 126
Q4·55.9
Grizzlies defensive team rebound
ORL 107·MEM 124
Q4·58.0
Noah Penda misses 25-foot three point jumper
ORL 107·MEM 124
Q4·1:08
Goga Bitadze defensive rebound
ORL 107·MEM 124
Q4·1:11
GG Jackson misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
ORL 107·MEM 124
Q4·1:26
Noah Penda makes free throw 2 of 2
ORL 107·MEM 124
Q4·1:26
Noah Penda makes free throw 1 of 2
ORL 106·MEM 124
Q4·1:26
John Konchar shooting foul
ORL 105·MEM 124
Q4·1:30
Vince Williams Jr. bad pass turnover (Noah Penda steals)
·
ORL 105·MEM 124
Q4·1:40
Noah Penda makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jase Richardson assists)
·
ORL 105·MEM 124
Q4·1:51
Jaylen Wells makes free throw 2 of 2
ORL 102·MEM 124
Q4·1:51
Grizzlies offensive team rebound
ORL 102·MEM 123
Q4·1:51
Jaylen Wells misses free throw 1 of 2
ORL 102·MEM 123
Q4·1:51
(01:51) [Magic] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
ORL 102·MEM 123
Q4·1:51
Jase Richardson shooting foul
ORL 102·MEM 123
Q4·1:57
Jaylen Wells offensive rebound
ORL 102·MEM 123
Q4·2:00
Vince Williams Jr. misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
ORL 102·MEM 123
Q4·2:19
Jamal Cain makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot
ORL 102·MEM 123
Q4·2:31
Goga Bitadze defensive rebound
ORL 100·MEM 123
Q4·2:33
GG Jackson misses two point shot
ORL 100·MEM 123
Q4·2:42
Vince Williams Jr. enters the game for Jaren Jackson Jr.
· ·
ORL 100·MEM 123
Q4·2:42
GG Jackson enters the game for Jock Landale
·
ORL 100·MEM 123

Betting line

ORL -2.5·O/U 229.5·ORL -142/MEM +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

emphis Grizzlies held off Orlando Magic, 126–109.

MEM +2.5 cashed (ORL lost outright). Total cleared the 229.5 OVER by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Franz WagnerORL · F
DEFL4.399
Ja MorantPOR · G
DRIVES15.798
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197
Anthony BlackORL · G
DEFL3.797

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ORL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MEM vs ORL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 125 high confidence

Points

Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
Ty JeromeMEM
18.9± 4.2medium
Desmond BaneORL
18.8± 7.4high

Rebounds

Zach EdeyMEM
11.3± 7.8low
Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
7.4± 4.7high

Assists

Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high
Ty JeromeMEM
5.4± 2.7medium
Walter Clayton Jr.MEM
4.7± 2.9high

Blocks

Zach EdeyMEM
1.9± 2.3low
Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
1.3± 0.7high

Steals

Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM
1.9± 2.1low
Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Taylor HendricksMEM
1.5± 2.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ORL

league avg

MEM

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

53.3%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

45.6%

114.2

PPG

114.9

114.7

26.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.8

13.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR