LAL
24-16
POR
21-22
LAL · top performer
Drew Timme
F · #17
21
Pts
2
Reb
4
Ast
POR · top performer
Shaedon Sharpe
G · #17
25
Pts
3
Reb
4
Ast
Biggest swing: 8pp · 2nd Quarter · 4:29
NBA · Los Angeles Lakers at Portland Trail Blazers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 32 | 20 | 6-16 | 1-3 | 7-7 | -16 | 9 | 8 | |
| 21 | 11 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 2-2 | -19 | 5 | 1 | |
| 28 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | -10 | 5 | 4 | |
| 25 | 25 | 9-17 | 4-6 | 3-5 | -14 | 2 | 0 | |
| 23 | 3 | 1-6 | 1-4 | — | +4 | 0 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 19 | 11 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 2-2 | -11 | 1 | 1 | |
| 18 | 6 | 3-3 | — | — | -10 | 2 | 1 | |
| 29 | 21 | 9-12 | 3-4 | — | -2 | 2 | 4 | |
| 5 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | — | +3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 10 | 5 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 1-1 | -5 | 0 | 3 | |
| 22 | 9 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | — | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 116 | 42-85 | 13-31 | 19-21 | 27 | 25 | ||
| DNP: C. Manon | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 26 | 9 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 1-2 | +12 | 2 | 1 | |
| 27 | 18 | 7-14 | 1-7 | 3-5 | +16 | 11 | 4 | |
| 20 | 9 | 4-8 | 1-5 | — | -3 | 3 | 4 | |
| 29 | 25 | 9-18 | 4-8 | 3-4 | +20 | 3 | 4 | |
| 29 | 14 | 5-7 | 1-3 | 3-5 | +1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 22 | 22 | 6-12 | 3-4 | 7-9 | +19 | 3 | 2 | |
| 17 | 8 | 2-2 | — | 4-4 | +6 | 6 | 0 | |
| 13 | 5 | 1-1 | — | 3-3 | -3 | 5 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | — | — | — | -6 | 0 | 0 | |
| 31 | 22 | 8-15 | 4-8 | 2-2 | +23 | 1 | 7 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | -3 | 1 | 0 | |
| 21 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-3 | — | -2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Team | 132 | 45-86 | 16-42 | 26-34 | 42 | 24 | ||
| DNP: K. Murray, D. Avdija, M. Thybulle | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
49
FG %
52
25
Ast
24
Team stats
LAL
Away
Stat
POR
Home
42-85
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
45-86
49
FG %
52
13-31
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
16-42
19-21
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
26-34
25
Assists
24
15
Turnovers
15
Season series
POR wins series 2-1
POR122@LAL108LAL123@POR115LAL116@POR132todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
POR -3.5
Between — and 5
Total
223.5
Standard · -2.5 vs avg
Moneyline
LAL+13043%POR-15561%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
3.5
0.0 since open
Total
223.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
POR beat LAL 132-116. S. Sharpe paced them with 25 PTS, 3 REB, 4 AST. POR outscored the other side 40-27 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
POR vs LAL
Starters vs bench
production by unitLALstarters 53% of ptsStarters(5)
61 PTS · 21 REB · 14 AST
GS 43
Bench(7)
55 PTS · 6 REB · 11 AST
GS 45
PORstarters 57% of ptsStarters(5)
75 PTS · 24 REB · 13 AST
GS 61
Bench(7)
57 PTS · 18 REB · 11 AST
GS 51
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLeBron James · makes free throw 1 of 2
Jerami Grant · makes 25-foot running jump shot (Caleb Love assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAL | 27 | 34 | 29 | 26 | 116 |
| POR | 40 | 31 | 36 | 25 | 132 |
Period scoring
LAL won 2 · POR won 2
Q1
Kleber 9
Love 8
Q2
James 8
Grant 10
Q3
Smart 14
Sharpe 10
Q4
Bufkin 5
Love 9
Shooting comparison
49%
42-85
FG
52%
45-86
42%
13-31
3PT
38%
16-42
90%
19-21
FT
76%
26-34
Play-by-play · 492 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAL 116·POR 132
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAL 116·POR 132
- Q4·22.3
Nick Smith Jr. makes free throw 1 of 1
LAL 116·POR 132
- Q4·22.3
Rayan Rupert shooting foul
LAL 115·POR 132
- Q4·22.3
Nick Smith Jr. makes 15-foot pullup jump shot
LAL 115·POR 132
- Q4·36.0
Yang Hansen traveling turnover
LAL 113·POR 132
- Q4·44.9
Javonte Cooke defensive rebound
LAL 113·POR 132
- Q4·46.9
Duop Reath blocks Drew Timme 's 1-foot driving layup
·
LAL 113·POR 132
- Q4·1:00
Javonte Cooke enters the game for Caleb Love
·
LAL 113·POR 132
- Q4·1:00
Rayan Rupert out of bounds lost ball turnover
LAL 113·POR 132
- Q4·1:04
Duop Reath defensive rebound
LAL 113·POR 132
- Q4·1:06
Sidy Cissoko blocks Bronny James 's 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
· ·
LAL 113·POR 132
- Q4·1:19
Caleb Love makes 20-foot pullup jump shot
LAL 113·POR 132
- Q4·1:36
Dalton Knecht makes 27-foot running jump shot (Kobe Bufkin assists)
·
LAL 113·POR 130
- Q4·1:40
Kobe Bufkin defensive rebound
LAL 110·POR 130
- Q4·1:42
Rayan Rupert misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
LAL 110·POR 130
- Q4·2:06
Drew Timme bad pass turnover (Rayan Rupert steals)
·
LAL 110·POR 130
- Q4·2:09
Caleb Love lost ball turnover (Drew Timme steals)
·
LAL 110·POR 130
- Q4·2:22
Nick Smith Jr. makes running layup (Drew Timme assists)
·
LAL 110·POR 130
- Q4·2:25
Caleb Love lost ball turnover (Drew Timme steals)
·
LAL 108·POR 130
- Q4·2:48
Drew Timme makes driving layup (Nick Smith Jr. assists)
·
LAL 108·POR 130
- Q4·3:05
Caleb Love makes driving layup
LAL 106·POR 130
- Q4·3:28
Yang Hansen enters the game for Robert Williams III
·
LAL 106·POR 128
- Q4·3:28
Drew Timme out of bounds bad pass turnover
LAL 106·POR 128
- Q4·3:40
Bronny James enters the game for Maxi Kleber
· ·
LAL 106·POR 128
- Q4·3:40
Nick Smith Jr. enters the game for Jake LaRavia
·
LAL 106·POR 128
- Q4·3:40
Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Toumani Camara
·
LAL 106·POR 128
- Q4·3:40
Rayan Rupert enters the game for Shaedon Sharpe
·
LAL 106·POR 128
- Q4·3:40
Duop Reath enters the game for Jerami Grant
·
LAL 106·POR 128
- Q4·3:40
Lakers Full timeout
LAL 106·POR 128
Betting line
POR -3.5·O/U 223.5·LAL +130/POR -155
Recap · NBA
ortland Trail Blazers held off Los Angeles Lakers, 132–116.
POR -3.5 cashed (won by 16). Total cleared the 223.5 OVER by 24.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 14 players in cohort
Robert Williams IIIPOR · CTS%72.299
Jrue HolidayPOR · GTOUCHES84.698
LeBron JamesLAL · FTOUCHES78.997- Shaedon SharpePOR · GUSG%29.996
Donovan ClinganPOR · CCONT7.694
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · LAL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
POR vs LAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 155 high confidence
Points
- Luka DoncicLAL35.3± 12.2high
- Deni AvdijaPOR25.3± 7.7high
- Austin ReavesLAL21.0± 6.8high
Rebounds
- Walker KesslerLAL10.7± 2.2low
- Donovan ClinganPOR10.3± 2.7high
- Deandre AytonLAL9.1± 4.7high
Assists
- Ja MorantPOR8.1± 3.9high
- Luka DoncicLAL7.6± 3.5high
- Deni AvdijaPOR6.3± 3.2high
Blocks
- Walker KesslerLAL1.8± 2.5low
- Donovan ClinganPOR1.5± 1.2high
- Robert Williams IIIPOR1.1± 0.9high
Steals
- Luka DoncicLAL2.0± 1.4high
- Matisse ThybullePOR1.7± 1.8high
- Collin SextonLAL1.6± 1.3high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
LAL
league avg
POR
57.0%
Effective FG%
54.4
53.0%
49.9%
FG%
47.0
45.1%
114.8
PPG
114.9
114.6
25.7
Assists / G
25.0
25.0
14.1
Turnovers / G
14.0
16.2