IND
10-33
DET
30-10
IND · top performer
Tony Bradley
C · #13
12
Pts
3
Reb
1
Ast
DET · top performer
Javonte Green
G · #31
16
Pts
3
Reb
0
Ast
NBA · Indiana Pacers at Detroit Pistons · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 26 | 13 | 4-12 | 2-5 | 3-6 | -31 | 5 | 2 | |
| 13 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-3 | — | -18 | 1 | 1 | |
| 14 | 8 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 3-5 | -26 | 0 | 0 | |
| 20 | 8 | 3-10 | 0-3 | 2-2 | -33 | 1 | 2 | |
| 24 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 0-2 | -34 | 5 | 0 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 17 | 10 | 5-7 | — | 0-1 | -13 | 5 | 0 | |
| 18 | 12 | 5-6 | 1-1 | 1-1 | -11 | 3 | 1 | |
| 33 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | -17 | 9 | 5 | |
| 29 | 10 | 3-13 | 1-8 | 3-6 | -14 | 5 | 2 | |
| 29 | 2 | 1-10 | 0-4 | 0-2 | -14 | 4 | 3 | |
| 17 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-5 | — | -4 | 4 | 2 | |
| Team | 78 | 28-79 | 8-35 | 14-27 | 42 | 18 | ||
| DNP: P. Siakam, A. Nesmith | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 18 | 7 | 3-5 | 1-1 | — | +27 | 5 | 4 | |
| 22 | 16 | 6-9 | 4-6 | — | +40 | 2 | 2 | |
| 23 | 15 | 6-12 | — | 3-5 | +30 | 8 | 4 | |
| 21 | 16 | 6-14 | 2-3 | 2-2 | +31 | 3 | 5 | |
| 16 | 7 | 2-3 | — | 3-5 | +29 | 7 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 10 | 3 | 1-1 | — | 1-2 | +1 | 5 | 0 | |
| 21 | 7 | 3-7 | 1-2 | — | +20 | 7 | 5 | |
| 24 | 7 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 1-1 | +18 | 6 | 3 | |
| 20 | 16 | 6-9 | 4-6 | — | +6 | 3 | 0 | |
| 20 | 10 | 4-10 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| 12 | 9 | 3-7 | 2-6 | 1-2 | +4 | 1 | 0 | |
| 21 | 5 | 2-7 | 1-4 | — | +5 | 2 | 0 | |
| 12 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-1 | — | +4 | 1 | 4 | |
| Team | 121 | 46-93 | 16-34 | 13-19 | 51 | 32 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
35
FG %
49
18
Ast
32
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
DET
Home
28-79
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
46-93
35
FG %
49
8-35
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
16-34
14-27
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-19
18
Assists
32
24
Turnovers
19
Season series
DET leads series 3-0
IND112@DET127DET122@IND117IND78@DET121todayDET133@IND121Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DET -15.5
Between 10 and —
Total
225.5
Standard · -0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
IND+62514%DET-95090%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
15.5
0.0 since open
Total
225.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
DET beat IND 121-78. J. Green led with 16 PTS, 3 REB, 0 AST. DET outscored the other side 31-11 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DET vs IND
Starters vs bench
production by unitINDstarters 47% of ptsStarters(5)
37 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST
GS 13
Bench(6)
41 PTS · 30 REB · 13 AST
GS 27
DETstarters 50% of ptsStarters(5)
61 PTS · 25 REB · 16 AST
GS 50
Bench(8)
60 PTS · 26 REB · 16 AST
GS 52
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 11 | 14 | 28 | 25 | 78 |
| DET | 31 | 28 | 33 | 29 | 121 |
Period scoring
IND won 0 · DET won 4
Q1
Jackson 4
Cunningham 19
Q2
Walker 8
Stewart 7
Q3
Furphy 5
Duren 6
Q4
Bradley 14
Green 10
Shooting comparison
35%
28-79
FG
49%
46-93
23%
8-35
3PT
47%
16-34
52%
14-27
FT
68%
13-19
Play-by-play · 516 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 78·DET 121
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 78·DET 121
- Q4·0.8
Javonte Green defensive rebound
IND 78·DET 121
- Q4·0.8
Taelon Peter misses 23-foot three point jumper
IND 78·DET 121
- Q4·13.6
Daniss Jenkins bad pass turnover (Taelon Peter steals)
·
IND 78·DET 121
- Q4·35.7
Paul Reed defensive rebound
IND 78·DET 121
- Q4·38.7
Taelon Peter misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
IND 78·DET 121
- Q4·45.9
Marcus Sasser makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
IND 78·DET 121
- Q4·1:05
Javonte Green defensive rebound
IND 78·DET 118
- Q4·1:11
Ethan Thompson misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
·
IND 78·DET 118
- Q4·1:22
Marcus Sasser makes 23-foot running jump shot (Daniss Jenkins assists)
·
IND 78·DET 118
- Q4·1:26
Micah Potter lost ball turnover (Daniss Jenkins steals)
·
IND 78·DET 115
- Q4·1:36
Ethan Thompson defensive rebound
·
IND 78·DET 115
- Q4·1:40
Daniss Jenkins misses 14-foot pullup jump shot
IND 78·DET 115
- Q4·1:51
Kam Jones makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot
IND 78·DET 115
- Q4·2:05
Javonte Green makes 22-foot three point jumper (Daniss Jenkins assists)
·
IND 76·DET 115
- Q4·2:28
Tony Bradley makes 24-foot three point jumper (Taelon Peter assists)
·
IND 76·DET 112
- Q4·2:46
Javonte Green makes 2-foot driving dunk
IND 73·DET 112
- Q4·3:08
Tony Bradley makes running layup
IND 73·DET 110
- Q4·3:09
Kam Jones defensive rebound
IND 71·DET 110
- Q4·3:16
Marcus Sasser misses 23-foot three point jumper
IND 71·DET 110
- Q4·3:39
Tony Bradley makes free throw 1 of 1
IND 71·DET 110
- Q4·3:39
Marcus Sasser shooting foul
IND 70·DET 110
- Q4·3:39
Tony Bradley makes running layup (Ethan Thompson assists)
· ·
IND 70·DET 110
- Q4·3:41
Tony Bradley defensive rebound
IND 68·DET 110
- Q4·3:44
Ronald Holland II misses driving layup
IND 68·DET 110
- Q4·3:51
Ronald Holland II defensive rebound
IND 68·DET 110
- Q4·3:55
Micah Potter misses 25-foot three point jumper
IND 68·DET 110
- Q4·3:59
Javonte Green enters the game for Jaden Ivey
·
IND 68·DET 110
- Q4·3:59
Ronald Holland II enters the game for Caris LeVert
·
IND 68·DET 110
Betting line
DET -15.5·O/U 225.5·IND +625/DET -950
Recap · NBA
etroit Pistons held off Indiana Pacers, 121–78. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
DET -15.5 cashed (won by 43). Total stayed UNDER 225.5 by 26.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 14 players in cohort
Cade CunninghamDET · GTOUCHES9799+
Jalen DurenDET · CTS%68.898
Jay HuffIND · CCONT8.796
Ausar ThompsonDET · GDEFL3.596
Micah PotterIND · CTS%67.996
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DET vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
165
projections · 150 high confidence
Points
- Cade CunninghamDET26.1± 9.6high
- Pascal SiakamIND23.8± 7.9high
- Tyrese HaliburtonIND16.8± 8.1high
Rebounds
- Jalen DurenDET9.1± 3.9high
- Micah PotterIND6.1± 4.5high
- Pascal SiakamIND6.1± 2.4high
Assists
- Andrew NembhardIND8.5± 4.7high
- Cade CunninghamDET8.2± 2.8high
- Tyrese HaliburtonIND8.1± 4.3high
Blocks
- Jay HuffIND1.9± 1.9high
- Jalen DurenDET1.0± 1.1high
- Jalen SlawsonIND1.0± 1.4medium
Steals
- Tyrese HaliburtonIND1.6± 1.3high
- Jalen SlawsonIND1.5± 1.7medium
- Cade CunninghamDET1.4± 1.2high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
IND
league avg
DET
53.3%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶54.2%
45.8%
FG%
47.0
▶48.0%
112.4
PPG
114.9
▶115.9
27.7
Assists / G
25.0
27.0
13.8
Turnovers / G
14.0
14.3