NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5HOU

MIN

27-15

105110

HOU

24-15

NBAFri, Jan 16FinalSeriesHOU leads series 1-0VegasHOU -3.5

MIN · top performer

Naz Reid

C · #11

23.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

HOU · top performer

Kevin Durant

F · #7

32.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIN ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 15pp · 4th Quarter · 1:09

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. RandleF · #30	40	39	14-25	2-5	9-11	-12	4	2
J. McDanielsF · #3	35	15	5-14	1-4	4-5	-5	7	4
R. GobertC · #27	32	10	4-7	—	2-10	-3	13	1
M. ConleyG · #10	26	6	2-8	1-5	1-2	+8	1	1
D. DiVincenzoG · #0	40	8	3-10	2-7	—	+5	8	4
Bench
J. BeringerF · #19	7	0	0-1	—	—	0	1	0
N. ReidC · #11	32	25	8-11	5-7	4-5	0	9	4
J. ClarkG · #22	11	0	—	—	—	-7	2	0
B. HylandG · #8	17	2	1-4	0-2	0-2	-11	0	5
Team		105	37-80	11-30	20-35		45	21
DNP: J. Ingles, L. Miller, J. Juzang, R. Dillingham

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	40	39	11-18	6-8	11-14	+15	4	7
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	38	9	3-12	1-4	2-5	-5	5	2
A. SengunC · #28	32	25	11-22	0-1	3-9	-7	14	3
J. OkogieG · #20	33	1	0-4	0-3	1-2	+2	2	0
A. ThompsonG · #1	36	14	5-12	1-3	3-4	+7	7	4
Bench
D. Finney-SmithF · #2	16	0	0-1	0-1	—	-3	3	0
J. TateF · #8	11	4	2-2	—	—	+2	3	0
C. CapelaC · #30	12	4	2-2	—	—	+8	3	1
J. DavisonG · #4	4	0	0-2	0-2	—	-5	1	0
R. SheppardG · #15	19	14	5-9	4-6	—	+11	0	2
Team		110	39-84	12-28	20-34		42	19
DNP: J. Green, S. Adams, A. Holiday

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

37-80

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-84

FG %

11-30

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-28

20-35

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-34

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

HOU leads series 1-0

Jan 17

MIN105@

HOU110today

Mar 26

HOU108@

MIN110

Apr 11

MIN136@

HOU132

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

221.5

Standard · -4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN+13642%

HOU-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -3.5↗SpreadBet HOU -3.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

221.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

HOU beat MIN 110-105. K. Durant led the way with 39 points and 7 assists.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

HOU vs MIN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MINstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 33 REB · 12 AST

GS 54

Bench(4)

27 PTS · 12 REB · 9 AST

GS 24

HOUstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

88 PTS · 32 REB · 16 AST

GS 61

Bench(5)

22 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST

GS 22

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

HOU4th Quarter · 9:33 · 85-90

+13pp→ 77% WP

Julius Randle · misses layup

MIN4th Quarter · 1:09 · 102-105

+15pp→ 41% WP

Jae'Sean Tate · shooting foul

HOU4th Quarter · 51.9 · 103-105

+12pp→ 87% WP

Jaden McDaniels · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIN	34	21	27	23	105
HOU	29	24	28	29	110

Period scoring

MIN won 1 · HOU won 3

Reid 11

Sheppard 9

Reid 6

Durant 11

Randle 17

Sengun 11

Randle 10

Durant 14

MIN

HOU

Shooting comparison

MIN

HOU

46%

37-80

46%

39-84

37%

11-30

3PT

43%

12-28

57%

20-35

59%

20-34

Play-by-play · 536 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 105·HOU 110
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 105·HOU 110
Q4·0.0
Timberwolves offensive team rebound
MIN 105·HOU 110
Q4·0.0
Bones Hyland misses heave jump shot
MIN 105·HOU 110
+0.6pp
Q4·1.3
Jabari Smith Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 105·HOU 110
Q4·1.3
Rockets offensive team rebound
MIN 105·HOU 109
Q4·1.3
Jabari Smith Jr. misses free throw 1 of 2
MIN 105·HOU 109
Q4·1.3
Jaylen Clark enters the game for Jaden McDaniels
·
MIN 105·HOU 109
Q4·1.3
Jaden McDaniels personal take foul
MIN 105·HOU 109
+1pp
Q4·3.1
Julius Randle makes 1-foot driving dunk (Naz Reid assists)
·
MIN 105·HOU 109
Q4·5.4
Timberwolves Full timeout
MIN 103·HOU 109
Q4·5.4
Amen Thompson out of bounds bad pass turnover
MIN 103·HOU 109
Q4·14.6
Jae'Sean Tate defensive rebound
MIN 103·HOU 109
+0.7pp
Q4·17.3
Donte DiVincenzo misses 27-foot three point jumper
MIN 103·HOU 109
+2pp
Q4·22.1
Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 103·HOU 109
−2pp
Q4·22.1
Kevin Durant makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIN 103·HOU 108
+11pp
Q4·22.1
Bones Hyland enters the game for Rudy Gobert
·
MIN 103·HOU 107
Q4·22.1
(00:22.1) [Timberwolves] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Timberwolves] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
MIN 103·HOU 107
−6pp
Q4·22.1
Timberwolves Full timeout
MIN 103·HOU 107
−4pp
Q4·22.1
Donte DiVincenzo personal foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 103·HOU 107
+7pp
Q4·38.5
Julius Randle lost ball turnover (Jae'Sean Tate steals)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 103·HOU 107
+8pp
Q4·51.9
Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIN 103·HOU 107
−6pp
Q4·51.9
Kevin Durant makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 103·HOU 106
+1pp
Q4·51.9
Jaden McDaniels shooting foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 103·HOU 105
+12pp
Q4·1:09
Jaden McDaniels makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 103·HOU 105
+0.9pp
Q4·1:09
Timberwolves offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
MIN 102·HOU 105
+8pp
Q4·1:09
Jaden McDaniels misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIN 102·HOU 105
+7pp
Q4·1:09
Jae'Sean Tate shooting foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 102·HOU 105
−14pp
Q4·1:19
Josh Okogie enters the game for Reed Sheppard
·
MIN 102·HOU 105
Q4·1:19
Jae'Sean Tate enters the game for Alperen Sengun
·
MIN 102·HOU 105

Betting line

HOU -3.5·O/U 221.5·MIN +136/HOU -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ouston Rockets held off Minnesota Timberwolves, 110–105. Decided by 5.

HOU -3.5 cashed (won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 221.5 by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Rudy GobertMIN · C
CONT1299+
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298
Joan BeringerMIN · F
TS%68.397
Alperen SengunHOU · C
CONT8.296
Josh OkogieHOU · G
DEFL393

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

170

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Anthony EdwardsMIN
23.7± 9.4high
LaMelo BallMIN
22.2± 8.0high

Rebounds

Rudy GobertMIN
10.1± 3.9high
Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high

Assists

LaMelo BallMIN
7.3± 2.5high
Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high
Amen ThompsonHOU
5.7± 2.0high

Blocks

Rudy GobertMIN
1.4± 1.2high
Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high
Joan BeringerMIN
1.1± 2.1high

Steals

Marcus SmartHOU
2.1± 1.8high
Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
Tari EasonHOU
1.8± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIN

league avg

HOU

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.7%

47.6%

FG%

47.0

47.4%

116.8

PPG

◀

114.9

114.1

25.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.1

14.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR