NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+18CHA

CHA

15-26

135117

LAL

24-15

NBAThu, Jan 15FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasLAL -3.5

CHA · top performer

LaMelo Ball

G · #1

27.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAL · top performer

Luka Doncic

G · #77

27.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHA ↔ LAL

Biggest swing: 8pp · 2nd Quarter · 4:34

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	33	25	9-13	5-7	2-2	+6	8	4
M. DiabateF · #14	30	8	4-5	—	—	+9	6	2
B. MillerF · #24	40	26	9-19	2-6	6-6	+17	2	5
L. BallG · #1	29	30	10-20	9-17	1-1	+5	6	11
K. KnueppelG · #7	33	19	7-10	3-5	2-2	+2	7	4
Bench
G. WilliamsF · #2	13	3	0-1	0-1	3-3	+10	3	0
T. SalaunF · #31	2	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	15	9	4-6	—	1-2	+7	6	1
P. ConnaughtonG · #21	2	0	—	—	—	+2	1	0
C. SextonG · #8	14	6	3-6	0-2	—	+5	0	3
J. GreenG · #10	14	0	0-2	0-1	—	+14	3	2
S. JamesG · #4	17	9	4-10	1-4	—	+11	8	2
Team		135	50-92	20-43	15-16		50	34
DNP: T. Mann

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	33	29	10-19	3-6	6-7	-7	9	6
J. LaRaviaF · #12	37	18	5-10	3-4	5-5	-6	3	3
D. AytonC · #5	32	12	6-10	—	—	-4	6	1
M. SmartG · #36	32	10	3-9	1-5	3-4	-1	4	3
L. DoncicG · #77	36	39	15-26	6-11	3-7	-13	3	4
Bench
R. HachimuraF · #28	18	3	1-4	1-4	—	-17	1	1
J. VanderbiltF · #2	15	6	3-4	0-1	—	-12	5	0
D. TimmeF · #17	2	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
D. KnechtF · #4	2	0	0-1	—	—	-2	0	0
G. VincentG · #7	15	0	0-7	0-5	—	-15	1	0
N. Smith Jr.G · #20	2	0	0-1	0-1	—	-2	0	0
K. BufkinG · #18	17	0	0-2	0-1	—	-7	3	0
B. JamesG · #9	2	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
Team		117	43-93	14-38	17-23		35	18
DNP: M. Kleber

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHA

Away

Stat

LAL

Home

50-92

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-93

FG %

20-43

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-38

15-16

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-23

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 11

LAL121@

CHA111

Jan 16

CHA135@

LAL117today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAL -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

233.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHA+13642%

LAL-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAL -3.5↗SpreadBet LAL -3.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

233.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHA beat LAL 135-117. L. Ball paced them with 30 PTS, 6 REB, 11 AST. CHA outscored the other side 34-16 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAL vs CHA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHAstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

108 PTS · 29 REB · 26 AST

GS 96

Bench(7)

27 PTS · 21 REB · 8 AST

GS 25

LALstarters 92% of pts

Starters(5)

108 PTS · 25 REB · 17 AST

GS 90

Bench(8)

9 PTS · 10 REB · 1 AST

GS 0

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LAL2nd Quarter · 7:54 · 37-42

+7pp→ 75% WP

LeBron James · makes free throw 1 of 2

CHA2nd Quarter · 4:34 · 49-45

+8pp→ 57% WP

Jake LaRavia · out of bounds bad pass turnover

LAL3rd Quarter · 4:00 · 93-89

+8pp→ 35% WP

Luka Doncic · makes 25-foot three pointer

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHA	30	34	40	31	135
LAL	39	16	38	24	117

Period scoring

CHA won 3 · LAL won 1

Bridges 11

Doncic 19

Miller 9

James 5

Ball 15

Doncic 15

Ball 12

James 9

CHA

LAL

Shooting comparison

CHA

LAL

54%

50-92

46%

43-93

47%

20-43

3PT

37%

14-38

94%

15-16

74%

17-23

Play-by-play · 476 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHA 135·LAL 117
−1pp
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHA 135·LAL 117
Q4·2.0
shot clock turnover
CHA 135·LAL 117
Q4·16.0
Bronny James personal foul
· ·
CHA 135·LAL 117
Q4·33.9
Pat Connaughton defensive rebound
CHA 135·LAL 117
Q4·39.2
Nick Smith Jr. misses 25-foot three point jumper
CHA 135·LAL 117
Q4·49.0
Sion James makes layup
· ·
CHA 135·LAL 117
Q4·50.0
Sion James offensive rebound
· ·
CHA 133·LAL 117
Q4·51.1
Kobe Bufkin blocks Sion James 's 13-foot driving floating jump shot
· ·
CHA 133·LAL 117
Q4·1:12
Sion James defensive rebound
· ·
CHA 133·LAL 117
Q4·1:16
Dalton Knecht misses 22-foot pullup jump shot
CHA 133·LAL 117
Q4·1:30
Tidjane Salaun enters the game for Brandon Miller
·
CHA 133·LAL 117
Q4·1:30
Pat Connaughton enters the game for Moussa Diabate
·
CHA 133·LAL 117
Q4·1:30
Sion James enters the game for Kon Knueppel
· ·
CHA 133·LAL 117
Q4·1:30
Collin Sexton enters the game for LaMelo Ball
·
CHA 133·LAL 117
Q4·1:30
Josh Green enters the game for Miles Bridges
·
CHA 133·LAL 117
Q4·1:30
Bronny James enters the game for Marcus Smart
· ·
CHA 133·LAL 117
Q4·1:30
Drew Timme enters the game for Luka Doncic
·
CHA 133·LAL 117
Q4·1:30
Dalton Knecht enters the game for LeBron James
· ·
CHA 133·LAL 117
Q4·1:30
Kobe Bufkin enters the game for Jake LaRavia
·
CHA 133·LAL 117
Q4·1:30
Nick Smith Jr. enters the game for Jarred Vanderbilt
·
CHA 133·LAL 117
Q4·1:30
Lakers Full timeout
CHA 133·LAL 117
Q4·1:30
LaMelo Ball makes 29-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)
·
CHA 133·LAL 117
Q4·1:36
LeBron James lost ball turnover (Brandon Miller steals)
· ·
CHA 130·LAL 117
Q4·1:48
Jarred Vanderbilt offensive rebound
CHA 130·LAL 117
Q4·1:51
LeBron James misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
· ·
CHA 130·LAL 117
Q4·2:01
LaMelo Ball makes 28-foot three point jumper (Moussa Diabate assists)
·
CHA 130·LAL 117
−0.7pp
Q4·2:03
Moussa Diabate offensive rebound
CHA 127·LAL 117
−0.7pp
Q4·2:06
Miles Bridges misses 23-foot three point jumper
CHA 127·LAL 117
Q4·2:30
LeBron James makes 5-foot running pullup jump shot
· ·
CHA 127·LAL 117
+0.5pp

Betting line

LAL -3.5·O/U 233.5·CHA +136/LAL -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

harlotte Hornets went into Los Angeles Lakers and beat them, 135–117.

CHA +3.5 cashed (LAL lost outright). Total cleared the 233.5 OVER by 18.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
Deandre AytonLAL · C
CONT10.399
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397
LeBron JamesLAL · F
TOUCHES78.997

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHA

league avg

LAL

55.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.0%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.9%

115.8

PPG

114.9

114.8

26.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.7

14.4

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR