NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+22DAL

UTAH

14-27

122144

DAL

16-26

NBAThu, Jan 15FinalSeriesUTAH leads series 2-1VegasDAL -2.5

UTAH · top performer

Brice Sensabaugh

F · #28

22.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DAL · top performer

Naji Marshall

F · #13

21.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowUTAH ↔ DAL

Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 3:05

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. FilipowskiF · #22	20	8	3-8	1-5	1-1	-11	4	0
C. WilliamsF · #5	31	13	6-12	1-2	—	-5	6	0
K. GeorgeG · #3	29	17	6-11	1-3	4-4	-21	3	3
I. CollierG · #8	29	10	4-11	0-4	2-2	-5	5	12
A. BaileyG · #19	30	15	6-15	1-5	2-2	-19	5	3
Bench
K. AndersonF · #2	26	12	5-7	1-1	1-6	-9	6	6
T. HendricksF · #0	16	5	2-6	1-4	—	-22	3	1
B. SensabaughF · #28	28	27	10-15	3-7	4-4	-10	5	1
W. Clayton Jr.G · #13	31	15	5-11	1-5	4-4	-8	2	7
Team		122	47-96	10-36	18-23		39	33
DNP: K. Love, J. Nurkic, S. Mykhailiuk

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. PowellF · #7	25	6	3-4	—	—	+4	7	0
C. MartinF · #16	29	14	6-8	2-2	—	+16	5	6
N. MarshallF · #13	24	22	9-15	2-4	2-2	+16	6	4
B. WilliamsG · #10	25	18	7-8	0-1	4-6	+10	2	3
J. HardyG · #1	25	19	5-15	4-13	5-6	-3	1	5
Bench
J. Robinson-EarlF · #23	22	12	5-8	2-3	—	-1	7	0
M. CisseC · #30	23	10	4-4	—	2-3	+18	13	2
K. ThompsonG · #31	23	26	10-18	6-13	—	+25	1	6
R. NembhardG · #9	23	8	3-9	0-2	2-2	+12	4	10
M. KellyG · #14	22	9	3-8	3-8	—	+13	0	1
Team		144	55-97	19-46	15-19		46	37
DNP: P.J. Washington, D. Russell

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

UTAH

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

47-96

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

55-97

FG %

10-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

19-46

18-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-19

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

UTAH leads series 2-1

Dec 16

DAL133@

UTAH140

Jan 9

DAL114@

UTAH116

Jan 16

UTAH122@

DAL144today

Jan 17

UTAH120@

DAL138

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

238.5

High-scoring · +12.5 vs avg

Moneyline

UTAH+11447%

DAL-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -2.5↗SpreadBet DAL -2.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

238.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat UTAH 144-122. N. Marshall led with 22 PTS, 6 REB, 4 AST. DAL outscored the other side 42-29 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DAL vs UTAH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

UTAHstarters 52% of pts

Starters(5)

63 PTS · 23 REB · 18 AST

GS 47

Bench(4)

59 PTS · 16 REB · 15 AST

GS 54

DALstarters 55% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 21 REB · 18 AST

GS 73

Bench(5)

65 PTS · 25 REB · 19 AST

GS 64

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
UTAH	24	26	29	43	122
DAL	35	35	42	32	144

Period scoring

UTAH won 1 · DAL won 3

Williams 9

Thompson 10

Filipowski 6

Marshall 12

Bailey 5

Martin 9

Sensabaugh 17

Jr. 30

UTAH

DAL

Shooting comparison

UTAH

DAL

49%

47-96

57%

55-97

28%

10-36

3PT

41%

19-46

78%

18-23

79%

15-19

Play-by-play · 467 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
UTAH 122·DAL 144
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
UTAH 122·DAL 144
Q4·16.6
Brice Sensabaugh makes layup (Kyle Anderson assists)
·
UTAH 122·DAL 144
Q4·35.0
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl makes two point shot
UTAH 120·DAL 144
Q4·35.5
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl offensive rebound
UTAH 120·DAL 142
Q4·37.8
Ryan Nembhard misses running pullup jump shot
UTAH 120·DAL 142
Q4·42.4
Ryan Nembhard defensive rebound
UTAH 120·DAL 142
Q4·44.9
Moussa Cisse blocks Isaiah Collier 's 2-foot two point shot
·
UTAH 120·DAL 142
Q4·52.0
Ryan Nembhard makes 19-foot step back jumpshot
UTAH 120·DAL 142
Q4·1:12
Kyle Anderson makes 23-foot jumper (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)
·
UTAH 120·DAL 140
Q4·1:19
Walter Clayton Jr. defensive rebound
UTAH 118·DAL 140
Q4·1:21
Jaden Hardy misses 22-foot three point jumper
UTAH 118·DAL 140
Q4·1:38
Walter Clayton Jr. makes running layup (Isaiah Collier assists)
·
UTAH 118·DAL 140
Q4·1:43
Cody Williams defensive rebound
·
UTAH 116·DAL 140
Q4·1:47
Jaden Hardy misses 25-foot three point jumper
UTAH 116·DAL 140
Q4·1:57
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl defensive rebound
UTAH 116·DAL 140
Q4·2:00
Isaiah Collier misses 25-foot three point jumper
UTAH 116·DAL 140
Q4·2:09
Moussa Cisse loose ball foul
UTAH 116·DAL 140
Q4·2:09
Jazz defensive team rebound
UTAH 116·DAL 140
Q4·2:12
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
UTAH 116·DAL 140
Q4·2:24
Moussa Cisse defensive rebound
UTAH 116·DAL 140
Q4·2:26
Kyle Anderson misses free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 116·DAL 140
Q4·2:26
Jazz offensive team rebound
UTAH 116·DAL 140
Q4·2:26
Kyle Anderson misses free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 116·DAL 140
Q4·2:26
Jazz Full timeout
UTAH 116·DAL 140
Q4·2:26
Moussa Cisse shooting foul
UTAH 116·DAL 140
Q4·2:41
Cody Williams defensive rebound
·
UTAH 116·DAL 140
Q4·2:43
Jaden Hardy misses 23-foot three point jumper
UTAH 116·DAL 140
Q4·3:02
Walter Clayton Jr. makes 13-foot pullup jump shot
UTAH 116·DAL 140
Q4·3:16
Jaden Hardy makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ryan Nembhard assists)
·
UTAH 114·DAL 140

Betting line

DAL -2.5·O/U 238.5·UTAH +114/DAL -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

allas Mavericks held off Utah Jazz, 144–122. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

DAL -2.5 cashed (won by 22). Total cleared the 238.5 OVER by 27.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Dwight PowellDAL · F
TS%69.999
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH · G
TOUCHES78.797
Isaiah CollierUTAH · G
DRIVES11.592
Brandon WilliamsDAL · G
DRIVES10.890
Kyle FilipowskiUTAH · F
CONT5.985

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · UTAH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

UTAH

league avg

DAL

53.6%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.7%

46.7%

FG%

47.0

46.6%

117.6

PPG

◀

114.9

114.1

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.3

15.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR