NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5BOS

BOS

25-15

119114

MIA

21-20

NBAThu, Jan 15FinalSeriesBOS leads series 2-0VegasBOS -2.5

BOS · top performer

Anfernee Simons

G · #4

27.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIA · top performer

Norman Powell

G · #24

22.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBOS ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 17pp · 4th Quarter · 1:38

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. HauserF · #30	29	17	6-11	3-8	2-2	+1	3	3
N. QuetaC · #88	20	9	4-5	—	1-2	-1	9	0
D. WhiteG · #9	36	8	1-7	0-3	6-6	+12	6	5
J. BrownG · #7	30	27	9-24	2-7	7-7	-10	7	0
P. PritchardG · #11	24	2	1-4	0-2	—	-20	3	8
Bench
L. GarzaC · #52	28	11	4-8	1-3	2-2	+5	4	1
A. SimonsG · #4	34	39	13-28	7-16	6-6	+18	4	4
B. ScheiermanG · #55	5	0	—	—	—	0	3	0
J. WalshG · #27	20	4	2-2	—	—	+1	8	1
H. GonzalezG · #28	14	2	1-2	—	—	+19	4	0
Team		119	41-91	13-39	24-25		51	22
DNP: C. Boucher, X. Tillman, A. Williams, R. Harper Jr., M. Shulga

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. WigginsF · #22	35	16	5-10	3-6	3-3	+3	8	4
B. AdebayoC · #13	33	22	8-19	3-7	3-4	+13	4	5
N. PowellG · #24	32	26	10-15	1-3	5-5	+11	3	2
T. HerroG · #14	31	22	9-15	4-7	—	-11	2	3
P. LarssonG · #9	30	7	2-6	0-3	3-4	+1	3	2
Bench
S. FontecchioF · #0	17	3	0-3	0-2	3-3	0	4	0
N. JovicF · #5	15	3	1-6	0-4	1-4	-19	5	0
K. WareC · #7	9	3	1-5	1-4	—	-8	5	0
D. SmithG · #12	12	0	0-4	0-2	—	-9	1	1
K. JakucionisG · #25	27	12	3-4	3-4	3-4	-6	5	8
Team		114	39-87	15-42	21-27		40	25
DNP: K. Johnson, J. Jaquez Jr., D. Mitchell

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

41-91

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-87

FG %

13-39

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-42

24-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-27

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

BOS leads series 2-0

Dec 20

MIA116@

BOS129

Jan 16

BOS119@

MIA114today

Feb 7

MIA96@

BOS98

Apr 1

BOS147@

MIA129

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

235.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS-14860%

MIA+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -2.5↗SpreadBet BOS -2.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

235.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat MIA 119-114. A. Simons led the way with 39 points and 4 assists. BOS outscored the other side 36-21 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIA vs BOS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BOSstarters 53% of pts

Starters(5)

63 PTS · 28 REB · 16 AST

GS 49

Bench(5)

56 PTS · 23 REB · 6 AST

GS 47

MIAstarters 82% of pts

Starters(5)

93 PTS · 20 REB · 16 AST

GS 76

Bench(5)

21 PTS · 20 REB · 9 AST

GS 15

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

BOS4th Quarter · 5:21 · 101-100

+13pp→ 51% WP

Sam Hauser · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)

BOS4th Quarter · 4:05 · 107-105

+15pp→ 59% WP

Jaylen Brown · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Sam Hauser assists)

BOS4th Quarter · 1:38 · 113-107

+17pp→ 91% WP

Sam Hauser · makes tip shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BOS	25	29	29	36	119
MIA	36	28	29	21	114

Period scoring

BOS won 2 · MIA won 1

Simons 11

Adebayo 10

Garza 6

Larsson 11

Brown 15

Powell 9

Simons 18

Jakucionis 8

BOS

MIA

Shooting comparison

BOS

MIA

45%

41-91

45%

39-87

33%

13-39

3PT

36%

15-42

96%

24-25

78%

21-27

Play-by-play · 486 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BOS 119·MIA 114
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BOS 119·MIA 114
−1pp
Q4·3.1
Anfernee Simons makes free throw 2 of 2
BOS 119·MIA 114
+0.6pp
Q4·3.1
Anfernee Simons makes free throw 1 of 2
BOS 118·MIA 114
Q4·3.1
Tyler Herro personal take foul
BOS 117·MIA 114
−3pp
Q4·4.7
Norman Powell makes driving layup
BOS 117·MIA 114
Q4·8.5
Anfernee Simons enters the game for Baylor Scheierman
·
BOS 117·MIA 112
Q4·8.5
Heat Full timeout
BOS 117·MIA 112
Q4·8.5
Sam Hauser makes free throw 2 of 2
BOS 117·MIA 112
+2pp
Q4·8.5
Sam Hauser makes free throw 1 of 2
BOS 116·MIA 112
−0.6pp
Q4·8.5
Andrew Wiggins personal take foulBIG MOMENT
BOS 115·MIA 112
−6pp
Q4·11.1
Bam Adebayo makes 30-foot three pointer (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)BIG MOMENT
·
BOS 115·MIA 112
+6pp
Q4·13.7
Baylor Scheierman enters the game for Anfernee Simons
·
BOS 115·MIA 109
Q4·13.7
Tyler Herro enters the game for Pelle Larsson
·
BOS 115·MIA 109
Q4·13.7
Heat Full timeout
BOS 115·MIA 109
Q4·13.7
Anfernee Simons makes free throw 2 of 2
BOS 115·MIA 109
+1pp
Q4·13.7
Jordan Walsh enters the game for Payton Pritchard
·
BOS 114·MIA 109
Q4·13.7
Anfernee Simons makes free throw 1 of 2
BOS 114·MIA 109
Q4·13.7
Kasparas Jakucionis personal take foul
BOS 113·MIA 109
−4pp
Q4·15.0
Payton Pritchard enters the game for Luka Garza
·
BOS 113·MIA 109
Q4·15.0
Pelle Larsson enters the game for Tyler Herro
·
BOS 113·MIA 109
Q4·15.0
Celtics Full timeout
BOS 113·MIA 109
−1pp
Q4·20.8
Jaylen Brown defensive rebound
BOS 113·MIA 109
−3pp
Q4·25.5
Bam Adebayo misses running pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
BOS 113·MIA 109
−6pp
Q4·31.0
Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound
BOS 113·MIA 109
+1pp
Q4·33.4
Anfernee Simons misses 10-foot step back jumpshot
BOS 113·MIA 109
+3pp
Q4·52.2
Jaylen Brown defensive rebound
BOS 113·MIA 109
−2pp
Q4·55.2
Tyler Herro misses driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
BOS 113·MIA 109
−6pp
Q4·59.1
Tyler Herro defensive rebound
BOS 113·MIA 109
+2pp
Q4·1:01
Jaylen Brown misses 9-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
BOS 113·MIA 109
+8pp

Betting line

BOS -2.5·O/U 235.5·BOS -148/MIA +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oston Celtics went into Miami Heat and beat them, 119–114. Decided by 5.

BOS -2.5 cashed (won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 235.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296
Andrew WigginsMIA · F
CONT7.693
Bam AdebayoMIA · C
CONT6.891
Norman PowellCHI · G
USG%26.790

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BOS

league avg

MIA

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

54.2%

46.5%

FG%

47.0

46.8%

114.2

PPG

114.9

▶

120.9

24.6

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.0

11.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR