POR
19-22
GS
22-19
POR · top performer
Shaedon Sharpe
G · #17
19
Pts
2
Reb
2
Ast
GS · top performer
Jimmy Butler III
F · #10
16
Pts
6
Reb
5
Ast
Biggest swing: 18pp · 1st Quarter · 6:15
NBA · Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 29 | 6 | 2-8 | 2-6 | — | -18 | 4 | 2 | |
| 22 | 7 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 2-2 | -7 | 9 | 1 | |
| 34 | 17 | 5-16 | 2-9 | 5-8 | -14 | 3 | 7 | |
| 28 | 19 | 9-15 | 1-5 | 0-2 | -17 | 2 | 2 | |
| 26 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-4 | — | -7 | 3 | 0 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 16 | 11 | 5-5 | 1-1 | — | -13 | 8 | 0 | |
| 11 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-3 | — | +2 | 2 | 0 | |
| 13 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-3 | — | -9 | 2 | 1 | |
| 21 | 12 | 4-12 | 2-8 | 2-3 | +1 | 8 | 3 | |
| 13 | 3 | 1-5 | 1-3 | — | -10 | 3 | 2 | |
| 27 | 13 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 2-2 | -18 | 1 | 2 | |
| Team | 97 | 36-83 | 14-47 | 11-17 | 45 | 20 | ||
| DNP: J. Grant, K. Murray, D. Avdija, M. Thybulle | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 26 | 16 | 5-7 | 1-2 | 5-5 | +17 | 6 | 5 | |
| 22 | 10 | 4-9 | 2-6 | — | +10 | 7 | 0 | |
| 14 | 3 | 1-5 | 1-5 | — | -11 | 0 | 1 | |
| 25 | 7 | 2-9 | 2-8 | 1-1 | +8 | 4 | 11 | |
| 23 | 14 | 5-9 | 4-8 | — | +12 | 2 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 6 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -6 | 0 | 1 | |
| 21 | 6 | 2-4 | 2-3 | — | +24 | 4 | 6 | |
| 20 | 6 | 2-6 | 2-6 | — | +18 | 2 | 4 | |
| 6 | 3 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | -6 | 1 | 0 | |
| 13 | 8 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 2-2 | +11 | 1 | 1 | |
| 18 | 23 | 9-14 | 4-6 | 1-1 | +20 | 2 | 1 | |
| 6 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -6 | 1 | 0 | |
| 22 | 15 | 6-10 | 3-5 | — | +18 | 4 | 1 | |
| 19 | 8 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 2-2 | +1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 119 | 42-89 | 23-57 | 12-13 | 34 | 34 | ||
| DNP: J. Kuminga | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
43
FG %
47
20
Ast
34
Team stats
POR
Away
Stat
GS
Home
36-83
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
42-89
43
FG %
47
14-47
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
23-57
11-17
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
12-13
20
Assists
34
22
Turnovers
14
Season series
POR wins series 3-1
GS119@POR139POR127@GS123GS131@POR136POR97@GS119todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
GS -10.5
Half-pt above key 10
Total
225.5
Standard · -0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
POR+36022%GS-47082%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
10.5
0.0 since open
Total
225.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
GS beat POR 119-97. J. Butler III led with 16 PTS, 6 REB, 5 AST. GS outscored the other side 38-24 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
GS vs POR
Starters vs bench
production by unitPORstarters 54% of ptsStarters(5)
52 PTS · 21 REB · 12 AST
GS 29
Bench(6)
45 PTS · 24 REB · 8 AST
GS 33
GSstarters 42% of ptsStarters(5)
50 PTS · 19 REB · 20 AST
GS 44
Bench(9)
69 PTS · 15 REB · 14 AST
GS 65
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impact(06:15) [Trail Blazers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL REPLAYCENTER)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR | 24 | 17 | 30 | 26 | 97 |
| GS | 38 | 29 | 28 | 24 | 119 |
Period scoring
POR won 2 · GS won 2
Q1
Clingan 7
Post 19
Q2
Rupert 6
Curry 15
Q3
Holiday 8
Podziemski 9
Q4
Love 11
Love 16
Shooting comparison
43%
36-83
FG
47%
42-89
30%
14-47
3PT
40%
23-57
65%
11-17
FT
92%
12-13
Play-by-play · 464 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
POR 97·GS 119
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
POR 97·GS 119
- Q4·21.1
Warriors defensive team rebound
POR 97·GS 119
- Q4·23.7
Rayan Rupert misses 23-foot three point jumper
POR 97·GS 119
- Q4·35.2
Quinten Post makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trayce Jackson-Davis assists)
·
POR 97·GS 119
- Q4·49.4
Caleb Love makes two point shot
POR 97·GS 116
- Q4·49.4
Caleb Love offensive rebound
POR 95·GS 116
- Q4·51.5
Yang Hansen misses 22-foot three point jumper
POR 95·GS 116
- Q4·1:10
Will Richard makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 95·GS 116
- Q4·1:10
Will Richard makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 95·GS 115
- Q4·1:10
Rayan Rupert shooting foul
POR 95·GS 114
- Q4·1:20
Rayan Rupert makes 3-foot driving dunk (Caleb Love assists)
·
POR 95·GS 114
- Q4·1:32
Trail Blazers defensive team rebound
POR 93·GS 114
- Q4·1:33
Buddy Hield misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
POR 93·GS 114
- Q4·1:43
Caleb Love makes 19-foot step back jumpshot (Yang Hansen assists)
·
POR 93·GS 114
- Q4·1:51
Trail Blazers offensive team rebound
POR 91·GS 114
- Q4·1:52
Caleb Love misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
POR 91·GS 114
- Q4·1:59
Rayan Rupert defensive rebound
POR 91·GS 114
- Q4·2:02
Buddy Hield misses free throw 2 of 2
POR 91·GS 114
- Q4·2:02
Buddy Hield makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 91·GS 114
- Q4·2:02
Caleb Love personal foul
POR 91·GS 113
- Q4·2:25
Duop Reath makes 25-foot three point jumper (Caleb Love assists)
·
POR 91·GS 113
- Q4·2:47
Buddy Hield traveling turnover
POR 88·GS 113
- Q4·2:58
Yang Hansen enters the game for Sidy Cissoko
·
POR 88·GS 113
- Q4·2:58
Quinten Post enters the game for Gui Santos
·
POR 88·GS 113
- Q4·2:58
Trail Blazers Full timeout
POR 88·GS 113
- Q4·2:58
Duop Reath personal foul
POR 88·GS 113
- Q4·3:03
Caleb Love bad pass turnover (Will Richard steals)
·
POR 88·GS 113
- Q4·3:05
Duop Reath defensive rebound
POR 88·GS 113
- Q4·3:10
Buddy Hield misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
POR 88·GS 113
Betting line
GS -10.5·O/U 225.5·POR +360/GS -470
Recap · NBA
olden State Warriors held off Portland Trail Blazers, 119–97. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
GS -10.5 cashed (won by 22). Total stayed UNDER 225.5 by 9.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Robert Williams IIIPOR · CTS%72.299
Stephen CurryGS · GUSG%31.597- Shaedon SharpePOR · GUSG%29.996
Donovan ClinganPOR · CCONT7.694
Draymond GreenGS · FCONT7.593
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · POR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs POR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 155 high confidence
Points
- Deni AvdijaPOR25.3± 7.7high
- Stephen CurryGS25.2± 8.3high
- Jimmy Butler IIIGS20.4± 6.0high
Rebounds
- Donovan ClinganPOR10.3± 2.7high
- Robert Williams IIIPOR7.4± 1.6high
- Deni AvdijaPOR6.1± 2.1high
Assists
- Ja MorantPOR8.1± 3.9high
- Draymond GreenGS6.6± 3.0high
- Deni AvdijaPOR6.3± 3.2high
Blocks
- Donovan ClinganPOR1.5± 1.2high
- Al HorfordGS1.1± 1.3high
- Robert Williams IIIPOR1.1± 0.9high
Steals
- Matisse ThybullePOR1.7± 1.8high
- De'Anthony MeltonGS1.5± 1.4high
- Jimmy Butler IIIGS1.5± 1.3high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
POR
league avg
GS
53.0%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶55.1%
45.1%
FG%
47.0
▶46.2%
114.6
PPG
114.9
114.5
25.0
Assists / G
25.0
▶28.8
16.2
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶15.1