MIN
27-14
MIL
17-23
MIN · top performer
Julius Randle
F · #30
29
Pts
8
Reb
6
Ast
MIL · top performer
Giannis Antetokounmpo
F · #34
25
Pts
8
Reb
5
Ast
Biggest swing: 17pp · 1st Quarter · 3:34
NBA · Minnesota Timberwolves at Milwaukee Bucks · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 30 | 29 | 12-18 | 4-7 | 1-2 | +23 | 8 | 6 | |
| 30 | 17 | 6-9 | 4-6 | 1-2 | +24 | 6 | 5 | |
| 28 | 19 | 8-12 | 2-6 | 1-3 | +18 | 3 | 2 | |
| 21 | 9 | 3-7 | 3-7 | — | 0 | 3 | 5 | |
| 30 | 11 | 4-6 | 3-5 | — | +23 | 4 | 7 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 8 | 0 | — | — | — | -5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 8 | 7 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 3-4 | -5 | 2 | 0 | |
| 30 | 13 | 6-7 | — | 1-1 | +30 | 5 | 2 | |
| 18 | 4 | 2-6 | — | — | +26 | 6 | 2 | |
| 8 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | — | -5 | 1 | 2 | |
| 21 | 23 | 9-16 | 5-7 | — | +41 | 2 | 5 | |
| 8 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-2 | — | -5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 139 | 55-92 | 22-42 | 7-12 | 44 | 37 | ||
| DNP: R. Gobert | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 31 | 25 | 9-13 | 0-1 | 7-14 | -11 | 8 | 5 | |
| 27 | 14 | 6-12 | 2-4 | — | -19 | 7 | 1 | |
| 29 | 13 | 5-11 | 2-4 | 1-2 | -16 | 4 | 8 | |
| 27 | 9 | 3-9 | 3-9 | — | -8 | 0 | 2 | |
| 31 | 11 | 5-14 | 1-5 | — | -23 | 7 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 8 | 2 | 1-3 | — | — | +5 | 1 | 0 | |
| 21 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | -37 | 0 | 2 | |
| 9 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-2 | — | +1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 4 | 0 | — | — | — | -11 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | — | -19 | 1 | 2 | |
| 9 | 10 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 3-3 | +1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 14 | 6 | 2-5 | 2-5 | — | -30 | 0 | 1 | |
| 9 | 2 | 1-2 | — | — | +1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 9 | 4 | 2-5 | 0-2 | — | +1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Team | 106 | 41-85 | 13-36 | 11-19 | 32 | 29 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
60
FG %
48
37
Ast
29
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
MIL
Home
55-92
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
41-85
60
FG %
48
22-42
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
13-36
7-12
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
11-19
37
Assists
29
15
Turnovers
19
Season series
MIN wins series 2-0
MIL100@MIN103MIN139@MIL106todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIL -1.5
Between — and 5
Total
229.5
Standard · +3.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MIN+11048%MIL-13057%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
229.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
MIN beat MIL 139-106. J. Randle paced them with 29 PTS, 8 REB, 6 AST. MIN outscored the other side 38-20 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIL vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 61% of ptsStarters(5)
85 PTS · 24 REB · 25 AST
GS 78
Bench(7)
54 PTS · 20 REB · 12 AST
GS 49
MILstarters 68% of ptsStarters(5)
72 PTS · 26 REB · 19 AST
GS 53
Bench(9)
34 PTS · 6 REB · 10 AST
GS 30
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactKevin Porter Jr. · out of bounds bad pass turnover
Giannis Antetokounmpo · enters the game for Jericho Sims
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 38 | 38 | 30 | 33 | 139 |
| MIL | 20 | 25 | 33 | 28 | 106 |
Period scoring
MIN won 3 · MIL won 1
Q1
McDaniels 14
Jr. 12
Q2
Randle 16
Antetokounmpo 16
Q3
Reid 11
Antetokounmpo 10
Q4
DiVincenzo 9
Miller 16
Shooting comparison
60%
55-92
FG
48%
41-85
52%
22-42
3PT
36%
13-36
58%
7-12
FT
58%
11-19
Play-by-play · 435 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 139·MIL 106
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 139·MIL 106
- Q4·0.1
Timberwolves offensive team rebound
MIN 139·MIL 106
- Q4·0.5
Rob Dillingham misses two point shot
MIN 139·MIL 106
- Q4·11.5
Amir Coffey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Andre Jackson Jr. assists)
·
MIN 139·MIL 106
- Q4·26.9
Leonard Miller lost ball turnover (Cole Anthony steals)
·
MIN 139·MIL 103
- Q4·37.6
Amir Coffey makes free throw 1 of 1
MIN 139·MIL 103
- Q4·37.6
Rob Dillingham shooting foul
MIN 139·MIL 102
- Q4·37.6
Amir Coffey makes layup (Pete Nance assists)
·
MIN 139·MIL 102
- Q4·46.1
Leonard Miller makes 1-foot running dunk (Joe Ingles assists)
·
MIN 139·MIL 100
- Q4·48.6
Thanasis Antetokounmpo bad pass turnover (Joe Ingles steals)
· ·
MIN 137·MIL 100
- Q4·56.8
Joan Beringer makes 1-foot reverse layup (Johnny Juzang assists)
·
MIN 137·MIL 100
- Q4·59.0
Johnny Juzang offensive rebound
MIN 135·MIL 100
- Q4·1:02
Leonard Miller misses 29-foot three point jumper
MIN 135·MIL 100
- Q4·1:11
Pete Nance makes 8-foot two point shot (Cole Anthony assists)
·
MIN 135·MIL 100
- Q4·1:24
Leonard Miller makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 135·MIL 98
- Q4·1:24
Timberwolves offensive team rebound
MIN 134·MIL 98
- Q4·1:24
Leonard Miller misses free throw 1 of 2
MIN 134·MIL 98
- Q4·1:24
Cole Anthony shooting foul
MIN 134·MIL 98
- Q4·1:28
Amir Coffey makes tip shot
MIN 134·MIL 98
- Q4·1:28
Amir Coffey offensive rebound
MIN 134·MIL 96
- Q4·1:31
Thanasis Antetokounmpo misses two point shot
·
MIN 134·MIL 96
- Q4·1:35
Joe Ingles bad pass turnover (Thanasis Antetokounmpo steals)
· ·
MIN 134·MIL 96
- Q4·1:38
Joe Ingles defensive rebound
MIN 134·MIL 96
- Q4·1:42
Pete Nance misses 25-foot three point jumper
MIN 134·MIL 96
- Q4·1:58
Johnny Juzang makes 12-foot two point shot
MIN 134·MIL 96
- Q4·2:09
Pete Nance personal foul
MIN 132·MIL 96
- Q4·2:18
Andre Jackson Jr. makes running dunk
MIN 132·MIL 96
- Q4·2:29
Joe Ingles bad pass turnover (Pete Nance steals)
·
MIN 132·MIL 94
- Q4·2:33
Amir Coffey bad pass turnover (Joe Ingles steals)
·
MIN 132·MIL 94
Betting line
MIL -1.5·O/U 229.5·MIN +110/MIL -130
Recap · NBA
innesota Timberwolves went into Milwaukee Bucks and beat them, 139–106. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
MIN +1.5 cashed (MIL lost outright). Total cleared the 229.5 OVER by 15.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 13 players in cohort- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA · FUSG%36.699+
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL · GDRIVES16.799
Ryan RollinsMIL · GDEFL4.098
Joan BeringerMIN · FTS%68.397
Pete NanceMIL · FTS%63.990
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIL vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
155
projections · 130 high confidence
Points
- Anthony EdwardsMIN23.7± 9.4high
- LaMelo BallMIN22.2± 8.0high
- Ryan RollinsMIL19.5± 7.1high
Rebounds
- Rudy GobertMIN10.1± 3.9high
- Anthony EdwardsMIN5.4± 4.1high
- Jaden McDanielsMIN5.3± 3.0high
Assists
- LaMelo BallMIN7.3± 2.5high
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL6.9± 2.8high
- Ryan RollinsMIL5.5± 1.9high
Blocks
- Rudy GobertMIN1.4± 1.2high
- Joan BeringerMIN1.1± 2.1high
- Jaden McDanielsMIN0.9± 0.4high
Steals
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL2.1± 1.4high
- Ryan RollinsMIL1.5± 1.1high
- Donte DiVincenzoMIN1.2± 1.3high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
MIN
league avg
MIL
55.1%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶56.5%
47.6%
FG%
47.0
47.7%
116.8
PPG
114.9
110.6
25.7
Assists / G
25.0
25.8
14.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
14.5