NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6MIA

PHX

24-16

121127

MIA

21-19

NBATue, Jan 13FinalSeriesMIA leads series 1-0VegasMIA -1.5

PHX · top performer

Devin Booker

G · #1

19.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIA · top performer

Bam Adebayo

C · #13

29.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHX ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 21pp · 4th Quarter · 48.3

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. O'NealeF · #00	32	8	3-10	2-8	—	+3	4	4
D. BrooksF · #3	36	25	11-24	1-10	2-3	+1	4	0
M. WilliamsC · #15	31	18	8-13	—	2-2	-6	14	1
D. BookerG · #1	40	24	6-19	1-5	11-11	-3	9	9
C. GillespieG · #12	24	13	4-8	3-7	2-2	+8	5	1
Bench
O. IghodaroF · #11	16	3	1-2	—	1-1	-3	3	3
R. DunnF · #0	16	3	1-2	1-2	—	-12	1	2
N. RichardsC · #2	0	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
G. AllenG · #8	27	25	9-19	6-14	1-1	-2	4	1
J. GoodwinG · #23	17	2	1-5	0-2	—	-16	4	1
Team		121	44-102	14-48	19-20		48	22
DNP: N. Hayes-Davis, R. Fleming, K. Maluach

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. WigginsF · #22	29	8	2-11	0-5	4-4	+11	6	1
B. AdebayoC · #13	32	29	11-15	4-6	3-4	+9	9	4
N. PowellG · #24	32	27	10-18	4-10	3-4	+13	5	3
D. MitchellG · #45	19	9	4-6	1-2	—	+9	3	6
T. HerroG · #14	39	23	8-18	2-8	5-6	+4	2	3
Bench
J. Jaquez Jr.F · #11	31	16	7-16	0-4	2-2	+10	4	8
N. JovicF · #5	6	1	—	—	1-2	-2	3	0
K. WareC · #7	16	10	4-6	2-3	—	-3	5	1
D. SmithG · #12	9	2	1-1	—	—	-19	1	0
P. LarssonG · #9	27	2	1-1	—	—	-2	3	2
Team		127	48-92	13-38	18-22		41	28
DNP: S. Fontecchio, K. Johnson, K. Jakucionis

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHX

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

44-102

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

48-92

FG %

14-48

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-38

19-20

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-22

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIA leads series 1-0

Jan 14

PHX121@

MIA127today

Jan 26

MIA111@

PHX102

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

232.5

Standard · +6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHX+10250%

MIA-12255%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

232.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIA beat PHX 127-121. B. Adebayo paced them with 29 PTS, 9 REB, 4 AST. PHX outscored the other side 38-21 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIA vs PHX

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHXstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

88 PTS · 36 REB · 15 AST

GS 67

Bench(5)

33 PTS · 12 REB · 7 AST

GS 27

MIAstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

96 PTS · 25 REB · 17 AST

GS 75

Bench(5)

31 PTS · 16 REB · 11 AST

GS 29

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIA4th Quarter · 2:27 · 114-113

+15pp→ 37% WP

Bam Adebayo · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)

MIA4th Quarter · 1:49 · 114-116

+18pp→ 63% WP

Bam Adebayo · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)

MIA4th Quarter · 48.3 · 118-121

+21pp→ 75% WP

Norman Powell · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHX	28	26	38	29	121
MIA	36	35	21	35	127

Period scoring

PHX won 1 · MIA won 3

Allen 11

Adebayo 10

Brooks 11

Herro 17

Brooks 10

Herro 11

Allen 9

Adebayo 13

PHX

MIA

Shooting comparison

PHX

MIA

43%

44-102

52%

48-92

29%

14-48

3PT

34%

13-38

95%

19-20

82%

18-22

Play-by-play · 520 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 121·MIA 127
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 121·MIA 127
Q4·0.1
Suns offensive team rebound
PHX 121·MIA 127
Q4·1.1
Royce O'Neale misses 31-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHX 121·MIA 127
+0.6pp
Q4·4.8
Andrew Wiggins makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 121·MIA 127
Q4·4.8
Pelle Larsson enters the game for Norman Powell
·
PHX 121·MIA 126
Q4·4.8
Andrew Wiggins makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 121·MIA 126
Q4·4.8
Ryan Dunn personal take foul
PHX 121·MIA 125
+2pp
Q4·6.3
Ryan Dunn enters the game for Collin Gillespie
·
PHX 121·MIA 125
Q4·6.3
Jordan Goodwin enters the game for Dillon Brooks
·
PHX 121·MIA 125
Q4·6.3
Oso Ighodaro enters the game for Devin Booker
·
PHX 121·MIA 125
Q4·6.3
Norman Powell enters the game for Pelle Larsson
·
PHX 121·MIA 125
Q4·6.3
Heat Full timeout
PHX 121·MIA 125
Q4·6.6
Grayson Allen makes 23-foot fade away jump shot (Royce O'Neale assists)
·
PHX 121·MIA 125
−2pp
Q4·10.2
Collin Gillespie enters the game for Mark Williams
·
PHX 118·MIA 125
Q4·10.2
Grayson Allen enters the game for Jordan Goodwin
·
PHX 118·MIA 125
Q4·10.2
Dillon Brooks enters the game for Oso Ighodaro
·
PHX 118·MIA 125
Q4·10.2
Suns Full timeout
PHX 118·MIA 125
Q4·10.2
Tyler Herro makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 118·MIA 125
Q4·10.2
Mark Williams enters the game for Ryan Dunn
·
PHX 118·MIA 124
Q4·10.2
Pelle Larsson enters the game for Norman Powell
·
PHX 118·MIA 124
Q4·10.2
Tyler Herro makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 118·MIA 124
Q4·10.2
Ryan Dunn personal take foul
PHX 118·MIA 123
+1pp
Q4·11.5
Jordan Goodwin enters the game for Mark Williams
·
PHX 118·MIA 123
Q4·11.5
Andrew Wiggins makes free throw flagrant 2 of 2
PHX 118·MIA 123
+0.6pp
Q4·11.5
Andrew Wiggins makes free throw flagrant 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
PHX 118·MIA 122
+10pp
Q4·11.5
Oso Ighodaro enters the game for Grayson Allen
·
PHX 118·MIA 121
Q4·11.5
Ryan Dunn enters the game for Dillon Brooks
·
PHX 118·MIA 121
Q4·11.5
(00:11.5) [Suns] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)
PHX 118·MIA 121
−4pp
Q4·11.5
Dillon Brooks offensive foul turnover
PHX 118·MIA 121
+3pp

Betting line

MIA -1.5·O/U 232.5·PHX +102/MIA -122

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

iami Heat held off Phoenix Suns, 127–121.

MIA -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total cleared the 232.5 OVER by 15.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Devin BookerPHX · G
USG%31.397
Mark WilliamsPHX · C
CONT8.496
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIL · F
DRIVES13.295
Dillon BrooksPHX · F
USG%28.694
Andrew WigginsMIA · F
CONT7.693

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHX favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs PHX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
25.0± 4.5high
Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
Jalen GreenPHX
21.0± 10.3high

Rebounds

Bam AdebayoMIA
10.3± 3.7high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
9.9± 4.4high
Bobby PortisMIA
6.2± 2.9high

Assists

Davion MitchellMIA
5.9± 2.8high
Devin BookerPHX
5.8± 2.3high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
5.1± 2.6high

Blocks

Andrew WigginsMIA
0.9± 0.9high
Oso IghodaroPHX
0.8± 0.7high
Jalen GreenPHX
0.7± 1.4high

Steals

Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high
Dru SmithMIA
1.3± 1.8high
Bam AdebayoMIA
1.2± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHX

league avg

MIA

53.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

54.2%

45.5%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.8%

112.2

PPG

114.9

▶

120.9

24.5

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.0

13.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR