NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8LAC

CHA

14-26

109117

LAC

16-23

NBAMon, Jan 12FinalSeriesLAC win series 2-0VegasLAC -4.5

CHA · top performer

Moussa Diabate

F · #14

18.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAC · top performer

Kawhi Leonard

F · #2

28.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHA ↔ LAC

Biggest swing: 12pp · 4th Quarter · 6:53

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	34	11	3-10	1-4	4-4	-15	6	1
M. DiabateF · #14	35	13	6-10	—	1-2	-4	15	4
B. MillerF · #24	33	13	5-11	1-3	2-4	-7	6	5
L. BallG · #1	32	25	11-24	3-11	—	-6	9	5
K. KnueppelG · #7	35	18	8-12	0-3	2-2	-9	5	4
Bench
G. WilliamsF · #2	13	7	2-3	1-2	2-3	+3	2	0
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	13	2	1-2	—	—	-4	0	0
J. GreenG · #10	13	3	1-4	1-4	—	+9	2	1
T. MannG · #23	13	9	4-6	1-2	—	-1	1	1
S. JamesG · #4	19	8	2-6	2-4	2-2	-6	3	3
Team		109	43-88	10-33	13-17		49	24
DNP: T. Salaun, P. Connaughton

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. LeonardF · #2	31	35	11-19	5-9	8-9	+8	5	3
J. CollinsF · #20	30	3	1-4	1-2	—	+16	5	1
I. ZubacC · #40	27	9	4-6	—	1-2	+3	11	2
J. HardenG · #1	38	32	11-28	3-11	7-8	+1	4	10
K. DunnG · #8	21	0	0-6	0-6	—	+7	2	0
Bench
N. BatumF · #33	22	7	2-2	2-2	1-2	-3	2	2
B. LopezC · #11	20	9	3-6	3-6	—	+7	4	1
Y. NiederhauserC · #14	0	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
J. MillerG · #22	27	14	6-11	2-6	—	+1	1	2
K. BrownG · #24	0	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
K. SandersG · #4	23	8	3-10	2-7	—	+6	3	1
C. ChristieG · #12	0	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
Team		117	41-92	18-49	17-21		37	22

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHA

Away

Stat

LAC

Home

43-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-92

FG %

10-33

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-49

13-17

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-21

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAC win series 2-0

Nov 22

LAC131@

CHA116

Jan 13

CHA109@

LAC117today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAC -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

222.5

Standard · -3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHA+16038%

LAC-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAC -4.5↗SpreadBet LAC -4.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

222.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAC beat CHA 117-109. K. Leonard led the way with 35 points and 5 rebounds.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAC vs CHA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHAstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 41 REB · 19 AST

GS 67

Bench(5)

29 PTS · 8 REB · 5 AST

GS 20

LACstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 27 REB · 16 AST

GS 64

Bench(7)

38 PTS · 10 REB · 6 AST

GS 30

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LAC4th Quarter · 9:52 · 91-92

+10pp→ 55% WP

Kobe Sanders · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)

LAC4th Quarter · 6:53 · 100-102

+12pp→ 62% WP

Jordan Miller · makes 29-foot three point jumper (John Collins assists)

LAC4th Quarter · 6:19 · 100-105

+10pp→ 79% WP

James Harden · makes 31-foot three point step back jumpshot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHA	26	17	41	25	109
LAC	24	21	41	31	117

Period scoring

CHA won 1 · LAC won 2

Diabate 6

Harden 11

Williams 5

Leonard 6

Ball 13

Leonard 19

Mann 7

Miller 10

CHA

LAC

Shooting comparison

CHA

LAC

49%

43-88

45%

41-92

30%

10-33

3PT

37%

18-49

76%

13-17

81%

17-21

Play-by-play · 446 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHA 109·LAC 117
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHA 109·LAC 117
Q4·22.6
Kon Knueppel makes 1-foot driving dunk (Sion James assists)
·
CHA 109·LAC 117
Q4·25.5
Sion James enters the game for Miles Bridges
·
CHA 107·LAC 117
Q4·25.5
Kobe Brown enters the game for John Collins
·
CHA 107·LAC 117
Q4·25.5
Yanic Konan Niederhauser enters the game for Brook Lopez
·
CHA 107·LAC 117
Q4·25.5
Cam Christie enters the game for Kawhi Leonard
·
CHA 107·LAC 117
Q4·25.5
Hornets Full timeout
CHA 107·LAC 117
Q4·28.3
Moussa Diabate defensive rebound
CHA 107·LAC 117
Q4·30.7
Kawhi Leonard misses free throw 2 of 2
CHA 107·LAC 117
Q4·30.7
Kobe Sanders enters the game for James Harden
· ·
CHA 107·LAC 117
Q4·30.7
Kawhi Leonard makes free throw 1 of 2
CHA 107·LAC 117
Q4·30.7
Brandon Miller personal foul
·
CHA 107·LAC 116
Q4·33.7
John Collins defensive rebound
CHA 107·LAC 116
Q4·37.1
Miles Bridges misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
CHA 107·LAC 116
Q4·42.7
Jordan Miller makes tip shot
·
CHA 107·LAC 116
+0.6pp
Q4·42.7
Jordan Miller offensive rebound
·
CHA 107·LAC 114
+1pp
Q4·44.0
James Harden misses driving layup
·
CHA 107·LAC 114
−0.8pp
Q4·57.6
John Collins offensive rebound
CHA 107·LAC 114
+2pp
Q4·59.7
Brook Lopez misses 22-foot three point jumper
CHA 107·LAC 114
−3pp
Q4·1:15
Miles Bridges personal foul
CHA 107·LAC 114
+2pp
Q4·1:22
LaMelo Ball makes 3-foot driving floating jump shot
CHA 107·LAC 114
−1pp
Q4·1:29
Moussa Diabate defensive rebound
CHA 105·LAC 114
Q4·1:33
Jordan Miller misses 24-foot three point jumper
·
CHA 105·LAC 114
−0.5pp
Q4·1:54
LaMelo Ball makes 6-foot two point shot (Kon Knueppel assists)
·
CHA 105·LAC 114
Q4·2:08
Hornets defensive team rebound
CHA 103·LAC 114
Q4·2:09
John Collins misses 24-foot turnaround jump shot
CHA 103·LAC 114
Q4·2:31
Brook Lopez defensive rebound
CHA 103·LAC 114
Q4·2:33
Kon Knueppel misses 4-foot two point shot
CHA 103·LAC 114
+0.5pp
Q4·2:39
Kon Knueppel defensive rebound
CHA 103·LAC 114

Betting line

LAC -4.5·O/U 222.5·CHA +160/LAC -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

A Clippers held off Charlotte Hornets, 117–109.

LAC -4.5 cashed (won by 8). Total cleared the 222.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
Kawhi LeonardTOR · F
USG%33.399
Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC · C
TS%69.198
Ivica ZubacIND · C
CONT9.298
Kris DunnLAC · G
DEFL3.697

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHA

league avg

LAC

55.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.5%

115.8

PPG

◀

114.9

113.9

26.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

23.8

14.4

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR