NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+12SAC

LAL

23-14

112124

SAC

10-30

NBAMon, Jan 12FinalSeriesLAL lead series 2-1VegasLAL -9.5

LAL · top performer

Luka Doncic

G · #77

38.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SAC · top performer

DeMar DeRozan

G · #10

30.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLAL ↔ SAC

Biggest swing: 21pp · 3rd Quarter · 12:00

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	33	22	8-17	0-5	6-6	-9	4	3
J. LaRaviaF · #12	31	2	1-7	0-5	—	-10	2	3
D. AytonC · #5	27	13	4-7	—	5-8	-12	13	1
M. SmartG · #36	31	1	0-5	0-3	1-2	-20	2	2
L. DoncicG · #77	37	42	16-25	2-9	8-8	-10	7	8
Bench
M. KleberF · #14	2	0	—	—	—	+4	0	1
J. VanderbiltF · #2	26	0	0-3	0-3	—	-3	4	0
D. KnechtF · #4	13	5	2-6	1-4	—	+3	2	1
J. HayesC · #11	19	12	5-6	—	2-4	-4	5	1
G. VincentG · #7	18	9	3-6	3-5	—	-7	0	1
N. Smith Jr.G · #20	2	0	—	—	—	+4	0	0
B. JamesG · #9	2	6	2-2	2-2	—	+4	0	0
Team		112	41-84	8-36	22-28		39	21
DNP: R. Hachimura

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	30	9	4-7	1-1	—	+15	7	0
M. RaynaudC · #42	31	11	5-8	1-2	—	+7	4	1
R. WestbrookG · #18	34	22	8-16	4-8	2-4	+10	5	7
D. DeRozanG · #10	37	32	14-19	—	4-5	+4	2	6
Z. LaVineG · #8	32	19	6-11	3-4	4-4	+9	4	1
Bench
D. CardwellC · #32	17	2	1-3	—	—	+5	7	0
M. MonkG · #0	32	26	9-15	7-9	1-1	+5	1	8
K. EllisG · #23	12	3	1-1	1-1	—	+3	0	0
N. CliffordG · #5	15	0	0-2	0-1	—	+2	2	0
Team		124	48-82	17-26	11-14		32	23
DNP: D. McDermott, D. Saric, D. Eubanks, D. Schroder, D. Carter

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

LAL

Away

Stat

SAC

Home

41-84

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

48-82

FG %

8-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

17-26

22-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

11-14

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAL lead series 2-1

Oct 27

LAL127@

SAC120

Dec 29

SAC101@

LAL125

Jan 13

LAL112@

SAC124today

Mar 2

SAC104@

LAL128

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAL -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

231.5

Standard · +5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAL-36078%

SAC+28526%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAL -9.5↗SpreadBet LAL -9.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

0.0 since open

Total

231.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SAC beat LAL 124-112. D. DeRozan paced them with 32 PTS, 2 REB, 6 AST. Zach LaVine's play in the 3rd quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SAC vs LAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LALstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 28 REB · 17 AST

GS 70

Bench(7)

32 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST

GS 26

SACstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

93 PTS · 22 REB · 15 AST

GS 77

Bench(4)

31 PTS · 10 REB · 8 AST

GS 25

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SAC2nd Quarter · 6:49 · 33-43

+7pp→ 63% WP

Malik Monk · makes 25-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)

SAC2nd Quarter · 3:42 · 41-54

+6pp→ 75% WP

Russell Westbrook · makes 24-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)

LAL3rd Quarter · 12:00 · 54-61

+21pp→ 39% WP

Zach LaVine · enters the game for Malik Monk

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LAL	28	26	29	29	112
SAC	32	29	34	29	124

Period scoring

LAL won 0 · SAC won 3

Doncic 11

LaVine 9

Doncic 15

Monk 18

Doncic 14

Westbrook 13

Vincent 6

DeRozan 9

LAL

SAC

Shooting comparison

LAL

SAC

49%

41-84

59%

48-82

22%

8-36

3PT

65%

17-26

79%

22-28

79%

11-14

Play-by-play · 429 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAL 112·SAC 124
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAL 112·SAC 124
Q4·8.6
Bronny James makes 24-foot three point jumper (Maxi Kleber assists)
· ·
LAL 112·SAC 124
Q4·15.2
shot clock turnover
LAL 109·SAC 124
Q4·39.2
Dalton Knecht makes 3-foot driving dunk
LAL 109·SAC 124
Q4·46.3
Maxime Raynaud makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot
LAL 107·SAC 124
Q4·1:06
Bronny James makes 24-foot three pointer (Dalton Knecht assists)
· ·
LAL 107·SAC 122
Q4·1:18
DeMar DeRozan makes 8-foot two point shot
LAL 104·SAC 122
Q4·1:37
Precious Achiuwa defensive rebound
LAL 104·SAC 120
Q4·1:38
Dalton Knecht misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
LAL 104·SAC 120
Q4·1:53
Dalton Knecht enters the game for Luka Doncic
·
LAL 104·SAC 120
Q4·1:53
Jarred Vanderbilt enters the game for Marcus Smart
·
LAL 104·SAC 120
Q4·1:53
Maxi Kleber enters the game for LeBron James
· ·
LAL 104·SAC 120
Q4·1:53
Nick Smith Jr. enters the game for Jake LaRavia
·
LAL 104·SAC 120
Q4·1:53
Bronny James enters the game for Deandre Ayton
· ·
LAL 104·SAC 120
Q4·1:53
Lakers Full timeout
LAL 104·SAC 120
Q4·1:53
Precious Achiuwa makes 23-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)
·
LAL 104·SAC 120
Q4·2:13
Russell Westbrook defensive rebound
LAL 104·SAC 117
Q4·2:14
Luka Doncic misses 29-foot three point jumper
LAL 104·SAC 117
Q4·2:27
Malik Monk makes 26-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)
·
LAL 104·SAC 117
+1pp
Q4·2:41
LeBron James bad pass turnover (Malik Monk steals)
· ·
LAL 104·SAC 114
+1pp
Q4·2:59
DeMar DeRozan makes 18-foot pullup jump shot
LAL 104·SAC 114
+2pp
Q4·3:09
Maxime Raynaud enters the game for Dylan Cardwell
·
LAL 104·SAC 112
Q4·3:09
Precious Achiuwa enters the game for Zach LaVine
·
LAL 104·SAC 112
Q4·3:09
Lakers Full timeout
LAL 104·SAC 112
Q4·3:09
Kings Full timeout
LAL 104·SAC 112
Q4·3:09
Luka Doncic makes 9-foot two point shot
LAL 104·SAC 112
−2pp
Q4·3:15
Luka Doncic defensive rebound
LAL 102·SAC 112
Q4·3:17
Dylan Cardwell misses 19-foot two point shot
LAL 102·SAC 112
−0.6pp
Q4·3:43
Deandre Ayton makes 5-foot two point shot
LAL 102·SAC 112
−0.7pp

Betting line

LAL -9.5·O/U 231.5·LAL -360/SAC +285

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

acramento Kings held off Los Angeles Lakers, 124–112.

SAC +9.5 cashed (LAL lost outright). Total cleared the 231.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
Deandre AytonLAL · C
CONT10.399
LeBron JamesLAL · F
TOUCHES78.997
Maxime RaynaudSAC · C
CONT7.593
Russell WestbrookSAC · G
DRIVES11.692

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · LAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SAC vs LAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Luka DoncicLAL
35.3± 12.2high
Austin ReavesLAL
21.0± 6.8high
DeMar DeRozanSAC
18.0± 12.6high

Rebounds

Walker KesslerLAL
10.7± 2.2low
Domantas SabonisSAC
10.6± 3.5high
Deandre AytonLAL
9.1± 4.7high

Assists

Luka DoncicLAL
7.6± 3.5high
Austin ReavesLAL
5.4± 2.6high
DeMar DeRozanSAC
4.8± 3.7high

Blocks

Walker KesslerLAL
1.8± 2.5low
Dylan CardwellSAC
1.7± 1.7high
Keegan MurraySAC
1.4± 0.8high

Steals

Luka DoncicLAL
2.0± 1.4high
Collin SextonLAL
1.6± 1.3high
Walker KesslerLAL
1.5± 1.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

LAL

league avg

SAC

57.0%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

49.9%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.7%

114.8

PPG

◀

114.9

111.0

25.7

Assists / G

25.0

25.5

14.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR