NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8DAL

BKN

11-26

105113

DAL

15-25

NBAMon, Jan 12FinalSeriesDAL leads series 2-0VegasDAL -3.5

BKN · top performer

Michael Porter Jr.

F · #17

19.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DAL · top performer

Cooper Flagg

F · #32

27.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBKN ↔ DAL

Biggest swing: 14pp · 1st Quarter · 10:05

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. Porter Jr.F · #17	33	28	9-17	6-10	4-4	-3	9	3
N. ClowneyF · #21	29	13	4-9	1-6	4-4	-7	2	2
N. ClaxtonC · #33	25	13	6-9	—	1-2	-10	6	5
T. MannG · #14	29	5	2-6	1-3	—	+3	3	6
D. PowellG · #4	25	10	5-10	0-4	—	-7	1	0
Bench
J. WilsonF · #22	15	6	2-5	0-3	2-2	-5	3	0
D. WolfF · #2	19	3	1-6	0-3	1-2	-1	4	1
D. SharpeC · #20	23	14	4-7	—	6-6	+2	12	0
T. MartinG · #13	20	7	3-8	1-4	—	-2	2	0
N. TraoreG · #88	22	6	3-9	0-4	—	-10	1	6
Team		105	39-86	9-37	18-20		43	23
DNP: C. Johnson, T. Etienne

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. PowellF · #7	35	5	2-2	—	1-2	+5	10	3
N. MarshallF · #13	32	22	9-14	0-1	4-4	+12	4	9
C. FlaggF · #32	35	27	10-17	2-3	5-6	+5	5	5
M. ChristieG · #00	34	10	4-12	1-8	1-2	-1	5	2
J. HardyG · #1	22	14	5-14	4-10	—	+2	2	0
Bench
C. MartinF · #16	10	1	0-1	—	1-2	-1	2	0
M. CisseC · #30	12	2	1-2	—	—	+4	6	0
K. ThompsonG · #31	27	18	6-13	6-9	—	+7	2	1
R. NembhardG · #9	22	9	4-8	1-2	—	+2	1	8
M. KellyG · #14	11	5	2-2	1-1	—	+5	0	0
Team		113	43-85	15-34	12-16		37	28
DNP: D. Gafford, D. Russell

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BKN

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

39-86

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-85

FG %

9-37

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-34

18-20

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

12-16

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DAL leads series 2-0

Dec 13

BKN111@

DAL119

Jan 13

BKN105@

DAL113today

Feb 25

DAL123@

BKN114

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

218.5

Defensive · -7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BKN+13043%

DAL-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -3.5↗SpreadBet DAL -3.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

218.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat BKN 113-105. C. Flagg paced them with 27 PTS, 5 REB, 5 AST. DAL outscored the other side 32-23 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DAL vs BKN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BKNstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 21 REB · 16 AST

GS 52

Bench(5)

36 PTS · 22 REB · 7 AST

GS 28

DALstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 26 REB · 19 AST

GS 72

Bench(5)

35 PTS · 11 REB · 9 AST

GS 25

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

BKN1st Quarter · 10:05 · 4-5

+14pp→ 36% WP

Michael Porter Jr. · bad pass turnover (Naji Marshall steals)

BKN4th Quarter · 11:46 · 80-84

+8pp→ 26% WP

Tyrese Martin · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Danny Wolf assists)

DAL4th Quarter · 6:21 · 90-96

+10pp→ 83% WP

Klay Thompson · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Naji Marshall assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BKN	23	22	32	28	105
DAL	32	24	28	29	113

Period scoring

BKN won 1 · DAL won 3

Jr. 9

Nembhard 14

Clowney 5

Flagg 12

Jr. 10

Marshall 6

Jr. 6

Marshall 12

BKN

DAL

Shooting comparison

BKN

DAL

45%

39-86

51%

43-85

24%

9-37

3PT

44%

15-34

90%

18-20

75%

12-16

Play-by-play · 448 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BKN 105·DAL 113
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BKN 105·DAL 113
Q4·14.0
Max Christie defensive rebound
BKN 105·DAL 113
Q4·15.7
Michael Porter Jr. misses alley oop layup
BKN 105·DAL 113
+0.5pp
Q4·20.4
Cooper Flagg makes free throw 2 of 2
BKN 105·DAL 113
Q4·20.4
Mavericks offensive team rebound
BKN 105·DAL 112
Q4·20.4
Cooper Flagg misses free throw 1 of 2
BKN 105·DAL 112
Q4·20.4
Terance Mann shooting foul
BKN 105·DAL 112
+0.6pp
Q4·26.3
Mavericks defensive team rebound
BKN 105·DAL 112
Q4·27.1
Drake Powell misses driving floating jump shot
·
BKN 105·DAL 112
+2pp
Q4·34.5
Max Christie traveling turnover
BKN 105·DAL 112
−1pp
Q4·43.6
Noah Clowney makes two point shot
BKN 105·DAL 112
−0.5pp
Q4·43.6
Noah Clowney offensive rebound
BKN 103·DAL 112
−0.6pp
Q4·45.3
Nic Claxton misses free throw 2 of 2
BKN 103·DAL 112
+1pp
Q4·45.3
Ryan Nembhard enters the game for Dwight Powell
· ·
BKN 103·DAL 112
Q4·45.3
Nic Claxton makes free throw 1 of 2
BKN 103·DAL 112
−0.8pp
Q4·45.3
Dwight Powell shooting foul
·
BKN 102·DAL 112
Q4·45.3
Nic Claxton offensive rebound
BKN 102·DAL 112
Q4·48.2
Michael Porter Jr. misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot
BKN 102·DAL 112
Q4·54.9
Michael Porter Jr. defensive rebound
BKN 102·DAL 112
Q4·56.8
Max Christie misses 23-foot three point jumper
BKN 102·DAL 112
Q4·1:06
Nic Claxton personal foul
BKN 102·DAL 112
Q4·1:16
Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
BKN 102·DAL 112
Q4·1:22
Noah Clowney misses 25-foot three point jumper
BKN 102·DAL 112
+0.6pp
Q4·1:32
Cooper Flagg makes 24-foot three pointer (Dwight Powell assists)
· ·
BKN 102·DAL 112
+2pp
Q4·1:41
Mavericks offensive team rebound
BKN 102·DAL 109
+2pp
Q4·1:41
Nic Claxton blocks Cooper Flagg 's 5-foot driving layup
·
BKN 102·DAL 109
−2pp
Q4·1:53
Drake Powell makes 14-foot step back jumpshot (Nic Claxton assists)
· ·
BKN 102·DAL 109
−0.6pp
Q4·2:12
Nets Full timeout
BKN 100·DAL 109
Q4·2:12
Cooper Flagg makes running dunk (Max Christie assists)
·
BKN 100·DAL 109
+2pp

Betting line

DAL -3.5·O/U 218.5·BKN +130/DAL -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

allas Mavericks held off Brooklyn Nets, 113–105.

DAL -3.5 cashed (won by 8). Total stayed UNDER 218.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Dwight PowellDAL · F
TS%69.999
Michael Porter Jr.BKN · F
USG%29.995
Cooper FlaggDAL · F
DRIVES12.894
Nic ClaxtonCHI · C
CONT7.392
Day'Ron SharpeBKN · C
TS%63.890

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · BKN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BKN

league avg

DAL

52.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

52.7%

44.3%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.6%

105.9

PPG

114.9

▶

114.1

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.3

15.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR