NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+13SAC

HOU

22-14

98111

SAC

9-30

NBASun, Jan 11FinalSeriesSAC leads series 2-1VegasHOU -14.5

HOU · top performer

Amen Thompson

G · #1

27.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SAC · top performer

DeMar DeRozan

G · #10

20.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowHOU ↔ SAC

Biggest swing: 31pp · 4th Quarter · 8:34

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	38	23	9-18	4-9	1-1	-9	4	6
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	33	9	4-13	0-3	1-3	-10	7	0
A. SengunC · #28	35	19	8-20	1-5	2-6	-11	9	4
A. HolidayG · #0	28	3	1-7	1-7	—	-19	1	4
A. ThompsonG · #1	41	31	11-17	0-1	9-12	-13	13	6
Bench
D. Finney-SmithF · #2	16	4	1-3	0-2	2-2	+2	3	0
S. AdamsC · #12	24	3	—	—	3-4	0	6	1
J. OkogieG · #20	9	0	0-2	0-1	—	-1	1	0
R. SheppardG · #15	15	6	2-4	1-2	1-1	-4	0	2
Team		98	36-84	7-30	19-29		44	23
DNP: J. Green, J. Tate, I. Crawford, C. Capela, J. Davison

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	39	10	4-7	0-3	2-2	+8	7	3
M. RaynaudC · #42	20	12	6-10	—	—	+8	9	1
R. WestbrookG · #18	34	15	6-12	3-6	—	+7	6	10
D. DeRozanG · #10	37	22	8-13	—	6-6	+13	2	6
Z. LaVineG · #8	28	18	5-11	3-6	5-6	-1	2	1
Bench
D. EubanksF · #19	9	2	1-6	0-1	—	+2	1	0
D. CardwellC · #32	19	9	4-11	—	1-4	+3	11	1
M. MonkG · #0	26	15	6-12	2-4	1-1	+22	4	3
K. EllisG · #23	7	0	—	—	—	-3	1	0
N. CliffordG · #5	22	8	4-9	0-3	0-1	+6	2	0
Team		111	44-91	8-23	15-20		45	25
DNP: D. McDermott, D. Saric, D. Schroder, D. Carter

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

SAC

Home

36-84

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

44-91

FG %

7-30

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-23

19-29

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-20

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

SAC leads series 2-1

Dec 4

SAC95@

HOU121

Dec 22

HOU124@

SAC125

Jan 12

HOU98@

SAC111today

Feb 26

SAC97@

HOU128

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -14.5

Between 10 and —

Total

223.5

Standard · -2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOU-75088%

SAC+52516%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -14.5↗SpreadBet HOU -14.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

14.5

0.0 since open

Total

223.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SAC beat HOU 111-98. D. DeRozan led with 22 PTS, 2 REB, 6 AST. SAC outscored the other side 33-22 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SAC vs HOU

Starters vs bench

production by unit

HOUstarters 87% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 34 REB · 20 AST

GS 64

Bench(4)

13 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST

GS 12

SACstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 26 REB · 21 AST

GS 68

Bench(5)

34 PTS · 19 REB · 4 AST

GS 20

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SAC2nd Quarter · 0.0 · 48-51

+20pp→ 41% WP

End of the 2nd Quarter

SAC3rd Quarter · 10.1 · 76-78

+18pp→ 53% WP

Zach LaVine · enters the game for Precious Achiuwa

HOU4th Quarter · 8:34 · 85-90

+31pp→ 31% WP

Steven Adams · blocks Dylan Cardwell's layup

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
HOU	23	25	28	22	98
SAC	22	29	27	33	111

Period scoring

HOU won 2 · SAC won 2

Durant 7

LaVine 8

Thompson 6

Raynaud 16

Thompson 16

Westbrook 17

Durant 8

Jr. 17

HOU

SAC

Shooting comparison

HOU

SAC

43%

36-84

48%

44-91

23%

7-30

3PT

35%

8-23

66%

19-29

75%

15-20

Play-by-play · 482 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
HOU 98·SAC 111
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
HOU 98·SAC 111
Q4·11.3
shot clock turnover
HOU 98·SAC 111
Q4·36.6
Kevin Durant makes 26-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)
·
HOU 98·SAC 111
Q4·43.0
Maxime Raynaud makes 5-foot two point shot (Russell Westbrook assists)
·
HOU 95·SAC 111
+1pp
Q4·1:00
Maxime Raynaud defensive rebound
HOU 95·SAC 109
Q4·1:02
Alperen Sengun misses free throw 2 of 2
HOU 95·SAC 109
Q4·1:02
Rockets offensive team rebound
HOU 95·SAC 109
Q4·1:02
Alperen Sengun misses free throw 1 of 2
HOU 95·SAC 109
Q4·1:02
Maxime Raynaud shooting foul
HOU 95·SAC 109
Q4·1:06
Rockets offensive team rebound
HOU 95·SAC 109
Q4·1:06
Malik Monk blocks Jabari Smith Jr. 's 3-foot layup
·
HOU 95·SAC 109
Q4·1:07
Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
HOU 95·SAC 109
Q4·1:10
Alperen Sengun misses 25-foot three point jumper
HOU 95·SAC 109
Q4·1:18
Maxime Raynaud makes 5-foot floating jump shot (Precious Achiuwa assists)
·
HOU 95·SAC 109
Q4·1:19
Jabari Smith Jr. lost ball turnover (Precious Achiuwa steals)BIG MOMENT
·
HOU 95·SAC 107
+26pp
Q4·1:20
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
HOU 95·SAC 107
Q4·1:21
DeMar DeRozan misses 16-foot pullup jump shot
HOU 95·SAC 107
Q4·1:42
Amen Thompson makes free throw 2 of 2
HOU 95·SAC 107
Q4·1:42
Rockets offensive team rebound
HOU 94·SAC 107
Q4·1:42
Amen Thompson misses free throw 1 of 2
HOU 94·SAC 107
Q4·1:42
Malik Monk personal foul
HOU 94·SAC 107
Q4·1:46
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
HOU 94·SAC 107
Q4·1:50
Aaron Holiday misses 29-foot three point step back jumpshot
HOU 94·SAC 107
Q4·2:01
Russell Westbrook makes 22-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)
·
HOU 94·SAC 107
+0.9pp
Q4·2:22
Kevin Durant makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Alperen Sengun assists)
·
HOU 94·SAC 104
Q4·2:33
Maxime Raynaud makes two point shot
HOU 92·SAC 104
+0.6pp
Q4·2:34
Maxime Raynaud offensive rebound
HOU 92·SAC 102
+0.7pp
Q4·2:35
Maxime Raynaud misses driving floating jump shot
HOU 92·SAC 102
−1pp
Q4·2:47
Aaron Holiday personal foul
HOU 92·SAC 102
+2pp

Betting line

HOU -14.5·O/U 223.5·HOU -750/SAC +525

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

acramento Kings held off Houston Rockets, 111–98.

SAC +14.5 cashed (HOU lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 223.5 by 14.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298
Alperen SengunHOU · C
CONT8.296
Maxime RaynaudSAC · C
CONT7.593
Josh OkogieHOU · G
DEFL393
Russell WestbrookSAC · G
DRIVES11.692

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SAC vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 150 high confidence

Points

Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Amen ThompsonHOU
20.2± 7.7high
Alperen SengunHOU
19.1± 6.9high

Rebounds

Domantas SabonisSAC
10.6± 3.5high
Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high

Assists

Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high
Amen ThompsonHOU
5.7± 2.0high
Alperen SengunHOU
5.6± 2.4high

Blocks

Dylan CardwellSAC
1.7± 1.7high
Keegan MurraySAC
1.4± 0.8high
Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high

Steals

Marcus SmartHOU
2.1± 1.8high
Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
Tari EasonHOU
1.8± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

HOU

league avg

SAC

53.7%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

47.4%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.7%

114.1

PPG

◀

114.9

111.0

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.5

14.3

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR