NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4DEN

MIL

17-22

104108

DEN

26-13

NBASun, Jan 11FinalSeriesDEN leads series 1-0VegasMIL -6.5

MIL · top performer

Giannis Antetokounmpo

F · #34

31.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DEN · top performer

Tim Hardaway Jr.

G · #10

20.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIL ↔ DEN

Biggest swing: 10pp · 4th Quarter · 3:39

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
G. AntetokounmpoF · #34	33	31	10-17	1-3	10-14	+16	8	11
M. TurnerC · #3	24	16	5-8	3-4	3-4	-5	5	0
K. Porter Jr.G · #7	38	10	4-17	1-6	1-1	-3	9	7
A. GreenG · #20	37	14	5-8	4-7	—	+11	5	4
R. RollinsG · #13	35	2	1-9	0-5	—	+9	6	4
Bench
B. PortisF · #9	17	14	6-9	2-2	—	-3	2	0
K. KuzmaF · #18	26	11	5-13	1-3	0-1	-14	6	0
G. HarrisG · #11	15	6	2-2	2-2	—	-10	3	1
G. Trent Jr.G · #5	15	0	0-2	0-2	—	-21	0	2
Team		104	38-85	14-34	14-20		44	29
DNP: T. Antetokounmpo, J. Sims, A. Coffey, A. Jackson Jr., C. Anthony

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. GordonF · #32	32	23	7-16	2-4	7-9	-11	6	4
H. TysonF · #5	13	2	0-1	0-1	2-3	-12	3	2
S. JonesF · #21	25	5	2-9	1-7	—	-17	2	0
J. PickettG · #24	37	13	5-13	2-5	1-1	-9	8	4
P. WatsonG · #8	39	19	7-19	4-6	1-2	+2	8	6
Bench
Z. NnajiF · #22	28	14	5-9	0-2	4-5	+22	10	3
T. Hardaway Jr.G · #10	35	25	8-12	5-9	4-5	+27	2	0
B. BrownG · #11	24	7	1-7	0-1	5-6	+15	6	4
J. StrawtherG · #3	8	0	0-1	—	—	+3	0	0
Team		108	35-87	14-35	24-31		45	23
DNP: D. Holmes II, C. Braun

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

DEN

Home

38-85

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-87

FG %

14-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-35

14-20

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

24-31

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DEN leads series 1-0

Jan 12

MIL104@

DEN108today

Jan 24

DEN102@

MIL100

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

219.5

Standard · -6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIL-21869%

DEN+18036%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -6.5↗SpreadBet MIL -6.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

219.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DEN beat MIL 108-104. T. Hardaway Jr. paced them with 25 PTS, 2 REB, 0 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DEN vs MIL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MILstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

73 PTS · 33 REB · 26 AST

GS 65

Bench(4)

31 PTS · 11 REB · 3 AST

GS 23

DENstarters 57% of pts

Starters(5)

62 PTS · 27 REB · 16 AST

GS 43

Bench(4)

46 PTS · 18 REB · 7 AST

GS 44

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DEN4th Quarter · 6:36 · 87-95

+9pp→ 89% WP

Kyle Kuzma · misses layup

DEN4th Quarter · 3:39 · 95-102

+10pp→ 89% WP

Tim Hardaway Jr. · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Zeke Nnaji assists)

DEN4th Quarter · 24.5 · 102-105

+9pp→ 86% WP

Ryan Rollins · misses driving floating jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIL	23	29	22	30	104
DEN	27	35	23	23	108

Period scoring

MIL won 1 · DEN won 3

Turner 11

Gordon 6

Antetokounmpo 8

Jr. 8

Antetokounmpo 7

Watson 10

Antetokounmpo 14

Gordon 8

MIL

DEN

Shooting comparison

MIL

DEN

45%

38-85

40%

35-87

41%

14-34

3PT

40%

14-35

70%

14-20

77%

24-31

Play-by-play · 462 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIL 104·DEN 108
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIL 104·DEN 108
+0.7pp
Q4·0.7
Bucks offensive team rebound
MIL 104·DEN 108
Q4·1.0
Kevin Porter Jr. misses tip shot
MIL 104·DEN 108
+1pp
Q4·2.1
Kevin Porter Jr. offensive rebound
MIL 104·DEN 108
Q4·3.1
Giannis Antetokounmpo misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
MIL 104·DEN 108
+3pp
Q4·4.4
Aaron Gordon makes free throw 2 of 2
MIL 104·DEN 108
−2pp
Q4·4.4
Spencer Jones enters the game for Jalen Pickett
·
MIL 104·DEN 107
Q4·4.4
Zeke Nnaji enters the game for Tim Hardaway Jr.
·
MIL 104·DEN 107
Q4·4.4
Aaron Gordon makes free throw 1 of 2
MIL 104·DEN 107
+0.6pp
Q4·4.4
Kyle Kuzma personal take foulBIG MOMENT
MIL 104·DEN 106
+7pp
Q4·5.9
Jalen Pickett enters the game for Spencer Jones
·
MIL 104·DEN 106
Q4·5.9
Bruce Brown enters the game for Zeke Nnaji
·
MIL 104·DEN 106
Q4·5.9
Nuggets Full timeout
MIL 104·DEN 106
Q4·5.9
Kyle Kuzma makes driving layup
MIL 104·DEN 106
−0.7pp
Q4·9.2
Bucks Full timeout
MIL 102·DEN 106
Q4·9.2
Aaron Gordon makes free throw 2 of 2
MIL 102·DEN 106
−2pp
Q4·9.2
Nuggets offensive team rebound
MIL 102·DEN 105
−3pp
Q4·9.2
Aaron Gordon misses free throw 1 of 2
MIL 102·DEN 105
−2pp
Q4·9.2
AJ Green personal foulBIG MOMENT
MIL 102·DEN 105
+6pp
Q4·11.2
Aaron Gordon defensive rebound
MIL 102·DEN 105
+3pp
Q4·12.8
Ryan Rollins misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
MIL 102·DEN 105
+8pp
Q4·15.8
Kevin Porter Jr. offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
MIL 102·DEN 105
−6pp
Q4·19.5
Zeke Nnaji blocks AJ Green 's 28-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
·
MIL 102·DEN 105
+8pp
Q4·22.5
Ryan Rollins offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
MIL 102·DEN 105
−7pp
Q4·24.5
Ryan Rollins misses driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
MIL 102·DEN 105
+9pp
Q4·32.0
Spencer Jones enters the game for Jalen Pickett
·
MIL 102·DEN 105
Q4·32.0
Bucks Full timeout
MIL 102·DEN 105
Q4·32.0
Ryan Rollins defensive rebound
MIL 102·DEN 105
−2pp
Q4·34.3
Jalen Pickett misses 16-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
MIL 102·DEN 105
−5pp

Betting line

MIL -6.5·O/U 219.5·MIL -218/DEN +180

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

enver Nuggets held off Milwaukee Bucks, 108–104. Decided by 4.

DEN +6.5 cashed (MIL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 219.5 by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA · F
USG%36.699+
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL · G
DRIVES16.799
Ryan RollinsMIL · G
DEFL4.098
Myles TurnerMIL · C
CONT8.195
Aaron GordonDEN · F
CONT6.790

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DEN vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Nikola JokicDEN
26.6± 7.0high
Jamal MurrayDEN
24.2± 8.1high
Ryan RollinsMIL
19.5± 7.1high

Rebounds

Nikola JokicDEN
12.5± 3.1high
Marvin Bagley IIIDEN
5.9± 3.4high
Aaron GordonDEN
5.3± 2.9high

Assists

Nikola JokicDEN
9.7± 4.5high
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
6.9± 2.8high
Jamal MurrayDEN
6.4± 1.9high

Blocks

Nikola JokicDEN
1.0± 1.0high
Spencer JonesDEN
0.7± 1.0high
Marvin Bagley IIIDEN
0.6± 0.7high

Steals

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
2.1± 1.4high
Ryan RollinsMIL
1.5± 1.1high
Bruce BrownDEN
1.3± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIL

league avg

DEN

56.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.2%

47.7%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.2%

110.6

PPG

114.9

▶

121.1

25.8

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.7

14.5

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR