NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+12OKC

MIA

20-19

112124

OKC

33-7

NBASun, Jan 11FinalSeriesOKC leads series 1-0VegasOKC -14.5

MIA · top performer

Davion Mitchell

G · #45

17.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

OKC · top performer

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

G · #2

23.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIA ↔ OKC

Biggest swing: 11pp · 1st Quarter · 3:40

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. WigginsF · #22	37	23	8-16	7-10	—	-14	5	3
B. AdebayoC · #13	32	6	3-10	0-1	0-2	-9	14	4
D. MitchellG · #45	31	13	5-7	3-3	—	-4	3	10
T. HerroG · #14	27	19	8-15	1-3	2-3	-5	2	3
P. LarssonG · #9	28	16	6-11	1-4	3-4	0	3	3
Bench
S. FontecchioF · #0	2	3	1-2	1-2	—	+3	2	0
M. GardnerF · #15	2	0	—	—	—	+3	0	0
K. JohnsonF · #16	2	0	—	—	—	+3	0	0
J. Jaquez Jr.F · #11	20	5	2-3	1-2	—	-10	0	3
N. JovicF · #5	25	13	5-7	3-4	—	-12	4	2
K. WareC · #7	16	8	4-8	0-3	—	-3	1	0
D. SmithG · #12	17	6	2-3	—	2-4	-15	3	6
K. JakucionisG · #25	2	0	—	—	—	+3	0	1
Team		112	44-82	17-32	7-13		37	35
DNP: N. Powell

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. HolmgrenC · #7	32	16	7-13	1-4	1-2	+9	10	2
S. Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #2	32	29	10-19	2-6	7-9	+8	5	8
L. DortG · #5	19	4	1-3	0-1	2-2	+3	4	0
Jal. WilliamsG · #8	29	18	9-13	0-1	0-2	+4	4	4
C. WallaceG · #22	26	3	1-6	0-3	1-2	-12	4	2
Bench
Jay. WilliamsF · #6	14	9	1-3	1-2	6-6	+8	5	1
B. CarlsonC · #15	2	0	0-1	0-1	—	-5	0	0
A. CarusoG · #9	14	7	3-5	1-2	—	+8	1	2
K. WilliamsG · #34	7	0	—	—	—	-6	4	0
I. JoeG · #11	19	11	3-5	2-4	3-5	+16	3	1
A. WigginsG · #21	19	11	4-10	3-7	—	+5	2	2
A. MitchellG · #25	27	16	8-15	0-3	—	+22	4	1
Team		124	47-93	10-34	20-28		46	23
DNP: B. Barnhizer, O. Dieng, C. Youngblood

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

OKC

Home

44-82

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

47-93

FG %

17-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-34

7-13

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-28

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

OKC leads series 1-0

Jan 12

MIA112@

OKC124today

Jan 18

OKC120@

MIA122

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OKC -14.5

Between 10 and —

Total

234.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIA+55015%

OKC-80089%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OKC -14.5↗SpreadBet OKC -14.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

14.5

0.0 since open

Total

234.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OKC beat MIA 124-112. S. Gilgeous-Alexander paced them with 29 PTS, 5 REB, 8 AST. OKC outscored the other side 39-26 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

OKC vs MIA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MIAstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 27 REB · 23 AST

GS 59

Bench(8)

35 PTS · 10 REB · 12 AST

GS 28

OKCstarters 56% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 27 REB · 16 AST

GS 60

Bench(7)

54 PTS · 19 REB · 7 AST

GS 46

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIA1st Quarter · 3:33 · 27-18

+8pp→ 42% WP

Dru Smith · makes running layup (Tyler Herro assists)

MIA1st Quarter · 3:40 · 25-18

+11pp→ 40% WP

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · bad pass turnover (Pelle Larsson steals)

OKC3rd Quarter · 5:33 · 74-74

+10pp→ 66% WP

Jaime Jaquez Jr. · traveling turnover

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIA	34	25	26	27	112
OKC	32	22	39	31	124

Period scoring

MIA won 2 · OKC won 2

Wiggins 9

Holmgren 7

Jovic 5

Williams 14

Mitchell 5

Wiggins 27

Wiggins 9

MIA

OKC

Shooting comparison

MIA

OKC

54%

44-82

51%

47-93

53%

17-32

3PT

29%

10-34

54%

7-13

71%

20-28

Play-by-play · 474 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIA 112·OKC 124
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIA 112·OKC 124
Q4·0.7
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
· ·
MIA 112·OKC 124
Q4·4.3
Kel'el Ware misses 27-foot three point jumper
MIA 112·OKC 124
Q4·14.1
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
MIA 112·OKC 124
Q4·18.0
Branden Carlson misses 23-foot three point jumper
MIA 112·OKC 124
Q4·39.7
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
· ·
MIA 112·OKC 124
Q4·42.6
Simone Fontecchio misses 23-foot running jump shot
MIA 112·OKC 124
Q4·48.0
Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound
MIA 112·OKC 124
Q4·50.0
Cason Wallace misses driving layup
MIA 112·OKC 124
Q4·1:05
Simone Fontecchio makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)
·
MIA 112·OKC 124
Q4·1:17
Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound
MIA 109·OKC 124
Q4·1:18
Aaron Wiggins misses two point shot
·
MIA 109·OKC 124
Q4·1:38
Kel'el Ware enters the game for Davion Mitchell
· ·
MIA 109·OKC 124
Q4·1:38
Keshad Johnson enters the game for Andrew Wiggins
· ·
MIA 109·OKC 124
Q4·1:38
Kasparas Jakucionis enters the game for Tyler Herro
·
MIA 109·OKC 124
Q4·1:38
Myron Gardner enters the game for Bam Adebayo
·
MIA 109·OKC 124
Q4·1:38
Simone Fontecchio enters the game for Pelle Larsson
·
MIA 109·OKC 124
Q4·1:38
Isaiah Joe enters the game for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
·
MIA 109·OKC 124
Q4·1:38
Thunder Full timeout
MIA 109·OKC 124
Q4·1:38
Tyler Herro makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Davion Mitchell assists)
· ·
MIA 109·OKC 124
Q4·1:49
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 107·OKC 124
Q4·1:49
Kenrich Williams enters the game for Ajay Mitchell
· ·
MIA 107·OKC 123
Q4·1:49
Branden Carlson enters the game for Chet Holmgren
·
MIA 107·OKC 123
Q4·1:49
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2
MIA 107·OKC 123
Q4·1:49
Tyler Herro shooting foul
MIA 107·OKC 122
Q4·2:04
Andrew Wiggins makes 24-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)
· ·
MIA 107·OKC 122
Q4·2:24
Ajay Mitchell makes driving layup
·
MIA 104·OKC 122
Q4·2:43
Bam Adebayo lost ball turnover (Aaron Wiggins steals)
· ·
MIA 104·OKC 120
Q4·2:48
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lost ball turnover (Davion Mitchell steals)
· ·
MIA 104·OKC 120

Betting line

OKC -14.5·O/U 234.5·MIA +550/OKC -800

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

klahoma City Thunder held off Miami Heat, 124–112.

MIA +14.5 cashed (OKC won by 12). Total cleared the 234.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Cason WallaceOKC · G
DEFL599+
Chet HolmgrenOKC · C
CONT10.799+
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G
DRIVES18.399
Jalen WilliamsOKC · G
DRIVES12.594
Andrew WigginsMIA · F
CONT7.693

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

OKC vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

140

projections · 125 high confidence

Points

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
27.7± 6.8high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
25.0± 4.5high
Bam AdebayoMIA
18.4± 7.8high

Rebounds

Bam AdebayoMIA
10.3± 3.7high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
9.9± 4.4high
Isaiah HartensteinOKC
8.6± 3.9high

Assists

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
7.6± 3.1high
Davion MitchellMIA
5.9± 2.8high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
5.1± 2.6high

Blocks

Chet HolmgrenOKC
1.4± 0.9high
Andrew WigginsMIA
0.9± 0.9high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
0.8± 0.8high

Steals

Cason WallaceOKC
2.0± 1.0high
Alex CarusoOKC
1.5± 1.1high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
1.5± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIA

league avg

OKC

54.2%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

46.8%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.2%

120.9

PPG

◀

114.9

118.5

29.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.8

13.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.9

Data via ESPN · hoopR