NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+55CHA

CHA

14-25

15095

UTAH

13-25

NBASat, Jan 10FinalSeriesCHA wins series 2-0VegasCHA -6.5

CHA · top performer

Miles Bridges

F · #0

18.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

UTAH · top performer

Brice Sensabaugh

F · #28

14.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHA ↔ UTAH

Biggest swing: 7pp · 1st Quarter · 11:34

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	22	15	5-6	3-4	2-2	+23	7	5
M. DiabateF · #14	25	10	3-3	—	4-7	+38	10	1
B. MillerF · #24	22	18	7-19	2-9	2-2	+36	4	4
L. BallG · #1	23	17	5-12	5-11	2-2	+37	5	5
K. KnueppelG · #7	18	12	5-7	2-3	—	+21	0	6
Bench
G. WilliamsF · #2	14	9	3-10	3-10	—	+31	8	0
T. SalaunF · #31	12	5	2-6	1-4	—	+1	5	2
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	24	12	5-7	—	2-2	+17	9	0
C. SextonG · #8	18	15	5-9	2-5	3-4	+17	5	4
J. GreenG · #10	25	13	5-10	2-6	1-2	+29	4	2
T. MannG · #23	12	20	7-10	4-6	2-2	+4	1	1
S. JamesG · #4	26	4	1-2	0-1	2-2	+21	7	5
Team		150	53-101	24-59	20-25		65	35

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. LoveF · #42	15	2	1-5	0-2	—	-26	5	0
T. HendricksF · #0	29	7	2-6	0-4	3-4	-31	4	1
C. WilliamsF · #5	32	15	5-9	1-3	4-5	-60	2	0
B. SensabaughF · #28	30	26	9-16	3-9	5-6	-21	3	0
K. GeorgeG · #3	23	4	2-7	0-2	—	-38	2	5
Bench
K. AndersonF · #2	21	7	3-10	0-1	1-2	-20	4	2
K. FilipowskiF · #22	25	4	2-10	0-1	—	-24	10	1
I. CollierG · #8	34	17	8-16	0-2	1-2	-27	1	9
W. Clayton Jr.G · #13	30	13	4-9	3-7	2-2	-28	0	4
Team		95	36-88	7-31	16-21		31	22
DNP: L. Markkanen, J. Nurkic, S. Mykhailiuk

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHA

Away

Stat

UTAH

Home

53-101

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

36-88

FG %

24-59

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

7-31

20-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-21

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CHA wins series 2-0

Nov 2

UTAH103@

CHA126

Jan 11

CHA150@

UTAH95today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHA -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

241.5

High-scoring · +15.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHA-20567%

UTAH+17037%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHA -6.5↗SpreadBet CHA -6.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

241.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHA beat UTAH 150-95. M. Bridges led with 15 PTS, 7 REB, 5 AST. CHA outscored the other side 45-14 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

UTAH vs CHA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHAstarters 48% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 26 REB · 21 AST

GS 67

Bench(7)

78 PTS · 39 REB · 14 AST

GS 78

UTAHstarters 57% of pts

Starters(5)

54 PTS · 16 REB · 6 AST

GS 31

Bench(4)

41 PTS · 15 REB · 16 AST

GS 28

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHA1st Quarter · 11:34 · 3-0

+7pp→ 62% WP

Brandon Miller · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kon Knueppel assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHA	45	32	38	35	150
UTAH	14	24	26	31	95

Period scoring

CHA won 4 · UTAH won 0

Ball 11

Williams 4

Green 8

Sensabaugh 9

Sexton 8

Sensabaugh 10

Mann 20

Williams 11

CHA

UTAH

Shooting comparison

CHA

UTAH

52%

53-101

41%

36-88

41%

24-59

3PT

23%

7-31

80%

20-25

76%

16-21

Play-by-play · 488 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHA 150·UTAH 95
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHA 150·UTAH 95
Q4·22.3
shot clock turnover
CHA 150·UTAH 95
Q4·46.4
Cody Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
·
CHA 150·UTAH 95
Q4·46.4
Cody Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
·
CHA 150·UTAH 94
Q4·46.4
Josh Green shooting foul
CHA 150·UTAH 93
Q4·53.6
Tre Mann makes 11-foot pullup jump shot
CHA 150·UTAH 93
Q4·1:12
Isaiah Collier makes driving layup
CHA 148·UTAH 93
Q4·1:19
Sion James personal foul
CHA 148·UTAH 91
Q4·1:30
Tre Mann makes 28-foot three pointer
CHA 148·UTAH 91
Q4·1:54
Josh Green defensive rebound
CHA 145·UTAH 91
Q4·1:54
Walter Clayton Jr. misses 25-foot running jump shot
CHA 145·UTAH 91
Q4·1:57
Cody Williams defensive rebound
·
CHA 145·UTAH 91
Q4·2:00
Kyle Filipowski blocks Josh Green 's 1-foot two point shot
·
CHA 145·UTAH 91
Q4·2:05
Tidjane Salaun defensive rebound
CHA 145·UTAH 91
Q4·2:08
Cody Williams misses 24-foot three point jumper
·
CHA 145·UTAH 91
Q4·2:21
Tidjane Salaun makes two point shot (Sion James assists)
·
CHA 145·UTAH 91
Q4·2:40
Walter Clayton Jr. makes 26-foot three pointer
CHA 143·UTAH 91
Q4·2:48
Tre Mann makes free throw 2 of 2
CHA 143·UTAH 88
Q4·2:48
Tre Mann makes free throw 1 of 2
CHA 142·UTAH 88
Q4·2:48
Kyle Filipowski shooting foul
CHA 141·UTAH 88
Q4·3:06
Walter Clayton Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)
·
CHA 141·UTAH 88
Q4·3:15
Kyle Filipowski defensive rebound
CHA 141·UTAH 85
Q4·3:16
Josh Green misses free throw 2 of 2
CHA 141·UTAH 85
Q4·3:16
Josh Green makes free throw 1 of 2
CHA 141·UTAH 85
Q4·3:16
Walter Clayton Jr. shooting foul
CHA 140·UTAH 85
Q4·3:19
Sion James defensive rebound
CHA 140·UTAH 85
Q4·3:21
Cody Williams misses 23-foot three point jumper
·
CHA 140·UTAH 85
Q4·3:39
Sion James makes driving layup
CHA 140·UTAH 85
Q4·3:50
Walter Clayton Jr. makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Taylor Hendricks assists)
·
CHA 138·UTAH 85

Betting line

CHA -6.5·O/U 241.5·CHA -205/UTAH +170

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

harlotte Hornets went into Utah Jazz and beat them, 150–95. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

CHA -6.5 cashed (won by 55). Total cleared the 241.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH · G
TOUCHES78.797
Moussa DiabateCHA · F
CONT7.794
Brandon MillerCHA · F
USG%27.893

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHA

league avg

UTAH

55.0%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.6%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.7%

115.8

PPG

114.9

▶

117.6

26.2

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

14.4

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR