NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+18CHI

DAL

14-25

107125

CHI

18-20

NBASat, Jan 10FinalSeriesCHI leads series 1-0VegasCHI -4.5

DAL · top performer

Naji Marshall

F · #13

12.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHI · top performer

Ayo Dosunmu

G · #11

23.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDAL ↔ CHI

Biggest swing: 9pp · 1st Quarter · 1:50

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GaffordF · #21	25	6	2-6	—	2-3	-10	7	0
N. MarshallF · #13	24	14	4-11	1-4	5-8	-10	4	3
C. FlaggF · #32	28	11	4-13	0-1	3-3	-14	1	2
M. ChristieG · #00	27	10	4-9	2-5	—	-12	3	2
R. NembhardG · #9	29	16	5-11	3-6	3-4	-15	3	6
Bench
D. PowellF · #7	1	0	—	—	—	+2	2	1
C. MartinF · #16	20	8	3-6	0-1	2-5	-4	4	4
M. CisseC · #30	19	5	2-3	—	1-2	-6	10	0
K. ThompsonG · #31	20	10	4-10	2-6	—	-19	2	1
D. RussellG · #5	19	8	4-10	0-2	—	-3	2	4
M. KellyG · #14	15	5	2-4	1-3	—	-2	3	2
J. HardyG · #1	13	14	5-8	4-7	—	+3	1	0
Team		107	39-91	13-35	16-25		42	25

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
I. OkoroF · #35	29	13	5-9	3-6	—	+15	4	2
M. BuzelisF · #14	25	15	7-16	1-7	—	+19	6	2
N. VucevicC · #9	29	15	6-11	1-5	2-2	+9	12	3
T. JonesG · #30	28	13	6-8	1-3	—	+4	3	5
C. WhiteG · #0	29	22	9-15	2-7	2-2	+18	4	3
Bench
J. SmithF · #25	16	7	3-11	0-5	1-2	+15	9	0
P. WilliamsF · #44	20	4	1-5	1-2	1-2	-5	5	1
D. TerryF · #7	3	0	0-2	—	—	-6	0	0
J. PhillipsF · #15	6	0	—	—	—	-4	1	0
J. CarterG · #5	3	3	1-1	1-1	—	-6	0	0
K. HuerterG · #13	24	13	5-10	2-6	1-1	+22	3	6
A. DosunmuG · #11	26	20	7-9	3-4	3-3	+15	4	8
Olbrich	--	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
Team		125	50-97	15-46	10-12		52	31

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

39-91

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

50-97

FG %

13-35

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-46

16-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

10-12

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CHI leads series 1-0

Jan 11

DAL107@

CHI125today

Apr 13

CHI128@

DAL149

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHI -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

233.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL+14541%

CHI-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHI -4.5↗SpreadBet CHI -4.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

233.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHI beat DAL 125-107. A. Dosunmu led with 20 PTS, 4 REB, 8 AST. CHI outscored the other side 36-28 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHI vs DAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DALstarters 53% of pts

Starters(5)

57 PTS · 18 REB · 13 AST

GS 39

Bench(7)

50 PTS · 24 REB · 12 AST

GS 42

CHIstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 29 REB · 15 AST

GS 65

Bench(8)

47 PTS · 22 REB · 15 AST

GS 45

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DAL1st Quarter · 10:48 · 3-5

+7pp→ 37% WP

Max Christie · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ryan Nembhard assists)

DAL1st Quarter · 1:50 · 23-31

+9pp→ 23% WP

Moussa Cisse · lost ball turnover (Ayo Dosunmu steals)

CHI3rd Quarter · 11:40 · 55-66

+7pp→ 84% WP

Isaac Okoro · lost ball turnover (Naji Marshall steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	28	27	24	28	107
CHI	36	30	28	31	125

Period scoring

DAL won 0 · CHI won 4

Christie 8

Dosunmu 9

Nembhard 8

Williams 23

Marshall 9

White 8

Hardy 11

Huerter 8

DAL

CHI

Shooting comparison

DAL

CHI

43%

39-91

52%

50-97

37%

13-35

3PT

33%

15-46

64%

16-25

83%

10-12

Play-by-play · 497 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 107·CHI 125
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 107·CHI 125
Q4·21.7
Moussa Cisse makes running dunk (D'Angelo Russell assists)
·
DAL 107·CHI 125
Q4·22.5
D'Angelo Russell defensive rebound
DAL 105·CHI 125
Q4·24.5
Dalen Terry misses driving layup
DAL 105·CHI 125
Q4·48.5
Caleb Martin makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 105·CHI 125
Q4·48.5
Mavericks offensive team rebound
DAL 104·CHI 125
Q4·48.5
Caleb Martin misses free throw 1 of 2
DAL 104·CHI 125
Q4·48.5
Julian Phillips shooting foul
DAL 104·CHI 125
Q4·1:03
Jevon Carter makes 25-foot three pointer (Lachlan Olbrich assists)
·
DAL 104·CHI 125
Q4·1:12
Jaden Hardy makes 24-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)
·
DAL 104·CHI 122
Q4·1:22
Dalen Terry bad pass turnover (Moussa Cisse steals)
·
DAL 101·CHI 122
Q4·1:29
Lachlan Olbrich defensive rebound
DAL 101·CHI 122
Q4·1:33
Jaden Hardy misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
DAL 101·CHI 122
Q4·1:39
Julian Phillips enters the game for Ayo Dosunmu
·
DAL 101·CHI 122
Q4·1:49
Caleb Martin defensive rebound
DAL 101·CHI 122
Q4·1:52
Patrick Williams misses 5-foot two point shot
DAL 101·CHI 122
Q4·2:13
Jaden Hardy makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Miles Kelly assists)
·
DAL 101·CHI 122
Q4·2:15
Miles Kelly defensive rebound
DAL 98·CHI 122
Q4·2:22
Dalen Terry misses 20-foot step back jumpshot
DAL 98·CHI 122
Q4·2:44
Patrick Williams defensive rebound
DAL 98·CHI 122
Q4·2:47
Caleb Martin misses free throw 2 of 2
DAL 98·CHI 122
Q4·2:47
Lachlan Olbrich enters the game for Kevin Huerter
·
DAL 98·CHI 122
Q4·2:47
Dalen Terry enters the game for Isaac Okoro
·
DAL 98·CHI 122
Q4·2:47
Jevon Carter enters the game for Tre Jones
·
DAL 98·CHI 122
Q4·2:47
Patrick Williams enters the game for Nikola Vucevic
·
DAL 98·CHI 122
Q4·2:47
Ayo Dosunmu enters the game for Coby White
·
DAL 98·CHI 122
Q4·2:47
Mavericks offensive team rebound
DAL 98·CHI 122
Q4·2:47
Caleb Martin misses free throw 1 of 2
DAL 98·CHI 122
Q4·2:47
Isaac Okoro shooting foul
DAL 98·CHI 122

Betting line

CHI -4.5·O/U 233.5·DAL +145/CHI -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hicago Bulls held off Dallas Mavericks, 125–107.

CHI -4.5 cashed (won by 18). Total stayed UNDER 233.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Dwight PowellDAL · F
TS%69.999
Daniel GaffordDAL · F
TS%67.796
Matas BuzelisCHI · F
CONT7.995
Tre JonesCHI · G
DRIVES12.995
Coby WhiteCHA · G
USG%29.195

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DAL

league avg

CHI

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

54.7%

46.6%

FG%

47.0

46.9%

114.1

PPG

114.9

▶

116.3

25.3

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.5

14.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR