NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6LAC

LAC

15-23

9892

DET

28-10

NBASat, Jan 10FinalSeriesLAC win series 2-0VegasDET -1.5

LAC · top performer

John Collins

F · #20

25.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DET · top performer

Duncan Robinson

F · #55

12.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLAC ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 75pp · 4th Quarter · 3:22

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. LeonardF · #2	31	26	8-13	4-7	6-9	+12	8	1
J. CollinsF · #20	37	25	9-14	5-8	2-4	+19	7	1
I. ZubacC · #40	32	17	6-9	—	5-8	+18	6	1
J. HardenG · #1	37	19	4-20	1-7	10-11	-1	7	7
K. DunnG · #8	38	2	1-3	0-1	—	+6	1	6
Bench
N. BatumF · #33	14	0	—	—	—	-12	1	0
B. LopezC · #11	12	0	0-4	0-4	—	-6	3	0
J. MillerG · #22	28	9	3-8	1-3	2-4	+1	1	1
K. SandersG · #4	10	0	0-1	0-1	—	-7	3	0
Team		98	31-72	11-31	25-36		37	17
DNP: Y. Niederhauser, K. Brown, C. Christie

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. RobinsonF · #55	28	20	7-10	5-7	1-2	+1	2	1
P. ReedF · #7	22	8	3-6	0-1	2-6	-6	7	3
J. GreenG · #31	33	7	2-6	1-5	2-2	-5	7	0
J. IveyG · #23	20	8	4-12	0-5	—	-2	3	0
A. ThompsonG · #9	34	6	3-6	—	—	-21	3	6
Bench
T. SmithF · #35	26	9	1-7	—	7-8	0	14	1
R. Holland IIF · #5	25	16	6-15	1-7	3-3	+8	6	1
C. LeVertG · #8	23	8	4-9	0-3	—	+4	1	4
M. SasserG · #25	7	0	0-4	0-4	—	0	0	3
D. JenkinsG · #24	21	10	3-8	1-3	3-4	-9	4	2
Team		92	33-83	8-35	18-25		47	21
DNP: B. Klintman, I. Jones, C. Lanier

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

LAC

Away

Stat

DET

Home

31-72

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

33-83

FG %

11-31

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-35

25-36

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-25

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAC win series 2-0

Dec 29

DET99@

LAC112

Jan 11

LAC98@

DET92today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

213.5

Defensive · -12.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAC-10551%

DET-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

213.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAC beat DET 98-92. J. Collins paced them with 25 PTS, 7 REB, 1 AST. DET outscored the other side 28-14 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DET vs LAC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LACstarters 91% of pts

Starters(5)

89 PTS · 29 REB · 16 AST

GS 79

Bench(4)

9 PTS · 8 REB · 1 AST

DETstarters 53% of pts

Starters(5)

49 PTS · 22 REB · 10 AST

GS 39

Bench(5)

43 PTS · 25 REB · 11 AST

GS 34

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LAC4th Quarter · 2:59 · 89-90

+15pp→ 52% WP

Duncan Robinson · shooting foul

DET4th Quarter · 2:20 · 91-92

+16pp→ 64% WP

Ivica Zubac · misses free throw 2 of 2

DET4th Quarter · 3:22 · 87-90

+75pp→ 75% WP

Ausar Thompson · blocks Ivica Zubac's dunk

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LAC	14	27	27	30	98
DET	28	27	21	16	92

Period scoring

LAC won 2 · DET won 1

Harden 10

Robinson 13

Leonard 11

Robinson 7

Harden 9

Ivey 6

Leonard 7

Jenkins 10

LAC

DET

Shooting comparison

LAC

DET

43%

31-72

40%

33-83

35%

11-31

3PT

23%

8-35

69%

25-36

72%

18-25

Play-by-play · 514 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAC 98·DET 92
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAC 98·DET 92
Q4·2.1
John Collins defensive rebound
LAC 98·DET 92
Q4·5.3
John Collins blocks Ronald Holland II 's 29-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
LAC 98·DET 92
−1pp
Q4·9.3
Ivica Zubac makes free throw 2 of 2
LAC 98·DET 92
+0.8pp
Q4·9.3
Ivica Zubac makes free throw 1 of 2
LAC 97·DET 92
Q4·9.3
Javonte Green personal take foul
LAC 96·DET 92
−3pp
Q4·12.2
Ausar Thompson enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
LAC 96·DET 92
Q4·12.2
Ronald Holland II enters the game for Daniss Jenkins
·
LAC 96·DET 92
Q4·13.7
Kawhi Leonard vs. Javonte Green
·
LAC 96·DET 92
Q4·13.7
Duncan Robinson enters the game for Ausar Thompson
·
LAC 96·DET 92
Q4·13.7
Daniss Jenkins enters the game for Ronald Holland II
·
LAC 96·DET 92
Q4·14.2
Kawhi Leonard defensive rebound
LAC 96·DET 92
−0.8pp
Q4·17.4
Paul Reed misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LAC 96·DET 92
−6pp
Q4·17.4
Ausar Thompson enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
LAC 96·DET 92
Q4·17.4
Ronald Holland II enters the game for Daniss Jenkins
·
LAC 96·DET 92
Q4·17.4
Pistons offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
LAC 96·DET 92
−6pp
Q4·17.4
Paul Reed misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
LAC 96·DET 92
−8pp
Q4·17.4
John Collins shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LAC 96·DET 92
+12pp
Q4·22.7
James Harden makes free throw 2 of 2
LAC 96·DET 92
+2pp
Q4·22.7
Ivica Zubac enters the game for Nicolas Batum
·
LAC 95·DET 92
Q4·22.7
Duncan Robinson enters the game for Ronald Holland II
·
LAC 95·DET 92
Q4·22.7
Daniss Jenkins enters the game for Ausar Thompson
·
LAC 95·DET 92
Q4·22.7
Clippers offensive team rebound
LAC 95·DET 92
+3pp
Q4·22.7
James Harden misses free throw 1 of 2
LAC 95·DET 92
+3pp
Q4·22.7
Ausar Thompson personal foulBIG MOMENT
LAC 95·DET 92
−7pp
Q4·25.7
Nicolas Batum enters the game for Ivica Zubac
·
LAC 95·DET 92
Q4·25.7
Ronald Holland II enters the game for Daniss Jenkins
·
LAC 95·DET 92
Q4·25.7
Clippers Full timeout
LAC 95·DET 92
Q4·27.1
Paul Reed lost ball turnover (Kawhi Leonard steals)BIG MOMENT
·
LAC 95·DET 92
−10pp

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 213.5·LAC -105/DET -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

A Clippers went into Detroit Pistons and beat them, 98–92.

LAC +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 213.5 by 23.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kawhi LeonardTOR · F
USG%33.399
Ivica ZubacIND · C
CONT9.298
Kris DunnLAC · G
DEFL3.697
Ausar ThompsonDET · G
DEFL3.596
Brook LopezLAC · C
CONT8.396

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · LAC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs LAC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Cade CunninghamDET
26.1± 9.6high
Darius GarlandLAC
19.0± 5.5high
Brandon IngramLAC
18.7± 10.3high

Rebounds

Jalen DurenDET
9.1± 3.9high
John CollinsDET
5.8± 2.5high
Brook LopezLAC
5.5± 2.4high

Assists

Cade CunninghamDET
8.2± 2.8high
Darius GarlandLAC
6.3± 2.3high
Kris DunnLAC
3.8± 2.7high

Blocks

Brook LopezLAC
1.3± 1.4high
Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC
1.3± 1.5high
Isaiah JacksonLAC
1.2± 0.8high

Steals

Kris DunnLAC
1.6± 1.1high
Cade CunninghamDET
1.4± 1.2high
Duncan RobinsonDET
1.2± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

LAC

league avg

DET

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

54.2%

48.5%

FG%

◀

47.0

48.0%

113.9

PPG

114.9

▶

115.9

23.8

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.0

13.6

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR