MIA
20-18
IND
8-31
MIA · top performer
Tyler Herro
G · #14
21
Pts
7
Reb
4
Ast
IND · top performer
Andrew Nembhard
G · #2
29
Pts
6
Reb
9
Ast
Biggest swing: 7pp · 1st Quarter · 4:37
NBA · Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 20 | 11 | 5-8 | 0-1 | 1-1 | -8 | 6 | 1 | |
| 25 | 13 | 5-12 | 0-2 | 3-3 | -23 | 9 | 2 | |
| 22 | 6 | 2-12 | 1-7 | 1-2 | -22 | 3 | 1 | |
| 19 | 1 | 0-1 | — | 1-2 | -7 | 2 | 1 | |
| 32 | 21 | 8-19 | 1-8 | 4-4 | -14 | 7 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 8 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-1 | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 12 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-4 | — | +3 | 7 | 0 | |
| 6 | 6 | 3-5 | 0-2 | — | +4 | 0 | 0 | |
| 25 | 16 | 6-12 | — | 4-6 | -22 | 7 | 2 | |
| 17 | 4 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | -12 | 1 | 0 | |
| 17 | 2 | 1-2 | — | — | -5 | 3 | 0 | |
| 12 | 8 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 3-3 | +4 | 1 | 4 | |
| 16 | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 4-6 | -20 | 3 | 0 | |
| 9 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 | — | +2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Team | 99 | 36-92 | 4-30 | 23-29 | 51 | 17 | ||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 26 | 11 | 4-15 | 0-3 | 3-4 | +9 | 7 | 5 | |
| 29 | 29 | 10-16 | 4-7 | 5-6 | +27 | 6 | 9 | |
| 27 | 12 | 4-12 | 1-5 | 3-4 | +16 | 9 | 2 | |
| 23 | 6 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | +15 | 1 | 1 | |
| 20 | 10 | 4-6 | 2-2 | — | +2 | 7 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 30 | 13 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 2-2 | +31 | 9 | 4 | |
| 4 | 3 | 0-3 | — | 3-4 | -4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 19 | 8 | 4-9 | 0-4 | — | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| 16 | 14 | 5-7 | 4-6 | — | +16 | 4 | 0 | |
| 17 | 12 | 5-10 | 2-2 | — | +7 | 1 | 7 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -4 | 1 | 1 | |
| 20 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-2 | — | +9 | 4 | 3 | |
| 4 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | — | -4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 123 | 44-98 | 17-40 | 18-22 | 54 | 37 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
39
FG %
45
17
Ast
37
Team stats
MIA
Away
Stat
IND
Home
36-92
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
44-98
39
FG %
45
4-30
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
17-40
23-29
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
18-22
17
Assists
37
19
Turnovers
16
Season series
Series tied 1-1
IND116@MIA142MIA99@IND123todayMIA118@IND135Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIA -6.5
Half-pt below key 7
Total
235.5
High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MIA-24571%IND+20033%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
6.5
0.0 since open
Total
235.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
IND beat MIA 123-99. A. Nembhard paced them with 29 PTS, 6 REB, 9 AST. IND outscored the other side 36-18 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
IND vs MIA
Starters vs bench
production by unitMIAstarters 53% of ptsStarters(5)
52 PTS · 27 REB · 9 AST
GS 31
Bench(9)
47 PTS · 24 REB · 8 AST
GS 31
INDstarters 55% of ptsStarters(5)
68 PTS · 30 REB · 19 AST
GS 54
Bench(8)
55 PTS · 24 REB · 18 AST
GS 54
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactAaron Nesmith · makes free throw 1 of 3
Tyler Herro · makes 27-foot three pointer
Micah Potter · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 18 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 99 |
| IND | 36 | 25 | 38 | 24 | 123 |
Period scoring
MIA won 2 · IND won 2
Q1
Adebayo 5
Nembhard 10
Q2
Herro 8
Walker 6
Q3
Herro 9
Nembhard 11
Q4
Smith 8
Huff 6
Shooting comparison
39%
36-92
FG
45%
44-98
13%
4-30
3PT
43%
17-40
79%
23-29
FT
82%
18-22
Play-by-play · 523 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIA 99·IND 123
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIA 99·IND 123
- Q4·11.3
Jarace Walker makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 99·IND 123
- Q4·11.3
Jarace Walker makes free throw 1 of 2
MIA 99·IND 122
- Q4·11.3
Myron Gardner personal foul
MIA 99·IND 121
- Q4·17.0
Keshad Johnson makes 2-foot dunk (Dru Smith assists)
·
MIA 99·IND 121
- Q4·20.9
Myron Gardner offensive rebound
MIA 97·IND 121
- Q4·24.9
Keshad Johnson misses 28-foot three point jumper
MIA 97·IND 121
- Q4·33.7
Tony Bradley makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 97·IND 121
- Q4·33.7
Pacers offensive team rebound
MIA 97·IND 120
- Q4·33.7
Tony Bradley misses free throw 1 of 2
MIA 97·IND 120
- Q4·33.7
Myron Gardner shooting foul
MIA 97·IND 120
- Q4·41.3
Ethan Thompson defensive rebound
MIA 97·IND 120
- Q4·44.2
Ethan Thompson blocks Simone Fontecchio 's 3-foot running layup
·
MIA 97·IND 120
- Q4·48.3
Kam Jones bad pass turnover (Simone Fontecchio steals)
·
MIA 97·IND 120
- Q4·59.1
Jarace Walker defensive rebound
MIA 97·IND 120
- Q4·1:01
Kasparas Jakucionis misses driving floating jump shot
MIA 97·IND 120
- Q4·1:09
Kam Jones makes 5-foot two point shot (Ethan Thompson assists)
·
MIA 97·IND 120
- Q4·1:29
Keshad Johnson makes driving layup (Dru Smith assists)
·
MIA 97·IND 118
- Q4·1:36
Tony Bradley makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 95·IND 118
- Q4·1:36
Tony Bradley makes free throw 1 of 2
MIA 95·IND 117
- Q4·1:36
Myron Gardner personal foul
MIA 95·IND 116
- Q4·1:44
Simone Fontecchio makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)
·
MIA 95·IND 116
- Q4·1:47
Myron Gardner offensive rebound
MIA 92·IND 116
- Q4·1:51
Kasparas Jakucionis misses 26-foot three point jumper
MIA 92·IND 116
- Q4·2:11
Micah Potter makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tony Bradley assists)
·
MIA 92·IND 116
- Q4·2:22
Dru Smith makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 92·IND 113
- Q4·2:22
Jarace Walker enters the game for Johnny Furphy
·
MIA 91·IND 113
- Q4·2:22
Dru Smith makes free throw 1 of 2
MIA 91·IND 113
- Q4·2:22
Tony Bradley shooting foul
MIA 90·IND 113
Betting line
MIA -6.5·O/U 235.5·MIA -245/IND +200
Recap · NBA
ndiana Pacers held off Miami Heat, 123–99. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
IND +6.5 cashed (MIA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 235.5 by 13.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort- Andrew NembhardIND · GTOUCHES87.498
Jay HuffIND · CCONT8.796
Pascal SiakamIND · FUSG%30.096
Andrew WigginsMIA · FCONT7.693
Bam AdebayoMIA · CCONT6.891
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · MIA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
IND vs MIA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
160
projections · 140 high confidence
Points
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA25.0± 4.5high
- Pascal SiakamIND23.8± 7.9high
- Bam AdebayoMIA18.4± 7.8high
Rebounds
- Bam AdebayoMIA10.3± 3.7high
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA9.9± 4.4high
- Bobby PortisMIA6.2± 2.9high
Assists
- Andrew NembhardIND8.5± 4.7high
- Tyrese HaliburtonIND8.1± 4.3high
- T.J. McConnellIND6.2± 3.1high
Blocks
- Jay HuffIND1.9± 1.9high
- Jalen SlawsonIND1.0± 1.4medium
- Andrew WigginsMIA0.9± 0.9high
Steals
- Tyrese HaliburtonIND1.6± 1.3high
- Jalen SlawsonIND1.5± 1.7medium
- Dru SmithMIA1.3± 1.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
MIA
league avg
IND
54.2%
Effective FG%
54.4
53.3%
46.8%
FG%
47.0
45.8%
120.9
PPG
114.9
112.4
29.0
Assists / G
25.0
27.7
13.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
13.8