NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4MIL

MIL

17-21

105101

LAL

23-13

NBAFri, Jan 9FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasLAL -3.5

MIL · top performer

Giannis Antetokounmpo

F · #34

22.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAL · top performer

LeBron James

F · #23

24.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIL ↔ LAL

Biggest swing: 29pp · 4th Quarter · 1.5

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
G. AntetokounmpoF · #34	31	21	9-11	—	3-4	+6	6	5
M. TurnerC · #3	23	8	3-6	2-4	—	0	6	0
K. Porter Jr.G · #7	39	22	7-14	1-3	7-10	+5	5	6
A. GreenG · #20	35	11	4-7	3-6	—	+10	2	2
R. RollinsG · #13	31	10	2-13	1-7	5-6	+1	6	2
Bench
B. PortisF · #9	30	11	5-12	1-5	—	+2	12	3
K. KuzmaF · #18	23	13	5-10	1-3	2-2	-4	3	2
G. HarrisG · #11	8	3	1-1	1-1	—	+6	2	1
G. Trent Jr.G · #5	19	6	2-5	2-5	—	-6	2	2
Team		105	38-79	12-34	17-22		44	23
DNP: T. Antetokounmpo, J. Sims, A. Coffey, A. Jackson Jr., C. Anthony

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	33	26	10-21	2-7	4-6	+8	9	10
J. LaRaviaF · #12	34	13	5-8	3-5	—	-15	2	2
D. AytonC · #5	24	4	2-6	—	—	-13	5	0
M. SmartG · #36	30	9	3-9	3-8	—	-1	4	1
L. DoncicG · #77	36	24	8-25	4-6	4-8	-14	9	9
Bench
M. KleberF · #14	3	0	—	—	—	-3	2	1
J. VanderbiltF · #2	27	9	4-7	1-3	—	+2	9	2
D. KnechtF · #4	13	4	2-4	0-2	—	+10	1	0
J. HayesC · #11	24	6	3-6	—	—	+9	2	1
G. VincentG · #7	15	6	2-5	2-5	—	-3	2	2
Team		101	39-91	15-36	8-14		45	28
DNP: N. Smith Jr., B. James

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

LAL

Home

38-79

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-91

FG %

12-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-36

17-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

8-14

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 16

LAL119@

MIL95

Jan 10

MIL105@

LAL101today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAL -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

228.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIL+13043%

LAL-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAL -3.5↗SpreadBet LAL -3.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

228.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIL beat LAL 105-101. G. Antetokounmpo led with 21 PTS, 6 REB, 5 AST. MIL outscored the other side 37-27 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAL vs MIL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MILstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 25 REB · 15 AST

GS 58

Bench(4)

33 PTS · 19 REB · 8 AST

GS 29

LALstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

76 PTS · 29 REB · 22 AST

GS 58

Bench(5)

25 PTS · 16 REB · 6 AST

GS 21

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIL4th Quarter · 1:36 · 101-98

+18pp→ 76% WP

Myles Turner · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)

MIL4th Quarter · 39.2 · 101-101

+22pp→ 52% WP

Giannis Antetokounmpo · blocks LeBron James 's 3-foot driving layup

MIL4th Quarter · 1.5 · 103-101

+29pp→ 98% WP

LeBron James · lost ball turnover (Giannis Antetokounmpo steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIL	24	37	25	19	105
LAL	25	27	25	24	101

Period scoring

MIL won 1 · LAL won 2

Green 8

Doncic 6

Jr. 10

James 8

Antetokounmpo 7

Doncic 12

Jr. 6

James 13

MIL

LAL

Shooting comparison

MIL

LAL

48%

38-79

43%

39-91

35%

12-34

3PT

42%

15-36

77%

17-22

57%

8-14

Play-by-play · 452 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIL 105·LAL 101
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIL 105·LAL 101
Q4·0.1
Lakers offensive team rebound
MIL 105·LAL 101
Q4·0.4
Marcus Smart misses 23-foot three point jumper
MIL 105·LAL 101
Q4·0.6
Kyle Kuzma enters the game for AJ Green
·
MIL 105·LAL 101
Q4·0.6
Dalton Knecht enters the game for Jarred Vanderbilt
·
MIL 105·LAL 101
Q4·0.6
Marcus Smart enters the game for Gabe Vincent
·
MIL 105·LAL 101
Q4·0.6
Lakers Full timeout
MIL 105·LAL 101
Q4·0.6
Kevin Porter Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
MIL 105·LAL 101
Q4·0.6
Kevin Porter Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
MIL 104·LAL 101
Q4·0.6
Jarred Vanderbilt personal take foul
MIL 103·LAL 101
−2pp
Q4·1.5
LeBron James lost ball turnover (Giannis Antetokounmpo steals)BIG MOMENT
· ·
MIL 103·LAL 101
−29pp
Q4·16.2
LeBron James defensive rebound
·
MIL 103·LAL 101
Q4·16.2
Kevin Porter Jr. misses free throw 3 of 3BIG MOMENT
MIL 103·LAL 101
+20pp
Q4·16.2
Jarred Vanderbilt enters the game for Marcus Smart
·
MIL 103·LAL 101
Q4·16.2
Kevin Porter Jr. makes free throw 2 of 3BIG MOMENT
MIL 103·LAL 101
−9pp
Q4·16.2
Kevin Porter Jr. makes free throw 1 of 3
MIL 102·LAL 101
−3pp
Q4·16.2
Gabe Vincent enters the game for Luka Doncic
·
MIL 101·LAL 101
Q4·16.2
Luka Doncic shooting foulBIG MOMENT
MIL 101·LAL 101
−22pp
Q4·35.0
Kevin Porter Jr. defensive rebound
MIL 101·LAL 101
−2pp
Q4·39.2
Giannis Antetokounmpo blocks LeBron James 's 3-foot driving layupBIG MOMENT
· ·
MIL 101·LAL 101
−22pp
Q4·1:00
Kevin Porter Jr. personal foulBIG MOMENT
MIL 101·LAL 101
+22pp
Q4·1:00
Luka Doncic defensive rebound
MIL 101·LAL 101
+2pp
Q4·1:00
Giannis Antetokounmpo misses driving layup
·
MIL 101·LAL 101
+5pp
Q4·1:22
Jake LaRavia makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Luka Doncic assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIL 101·LAL 101
+18pp
Q4·1:36
Myles Turner makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIL 101·LAL 98
−18pp
Q4·1:48
Marcus Smart enters the game for Jarred Vanderbilt
·
MIL 98·LAL 98
Q4·1:48
Bucks defensive team rebound
MIL 98·LAL 98
−2pp
Q4·1:48
Luka Doncic misses driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
MIL 98·LAL 98
−8pp
Q4·2:00
Kevin Porter Jr. makes two point shot (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
MIL 98·LAL 98
−9pp

Betting line

LAL -3.5·O/U 228.5·MIL +130/LAL -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ilwaukee Bucks went into Los Angeles Lakers and beat them, 105–101. Decided by 4.

MIL +3.5 cashed (LAL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 228.5 by 22.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA · F
USG%36.699+
Deandre AytonLAL · C
CONT10.399
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL · G
DRIVES16.799
Ryan RollinsMIL · G
DEFL4.098

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAL vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Luka DoncicLAL
35.3± 12.2high
Austin ReavesLAL
21.0± 6.8high
Ryan RollinsMIL
19.5± 7.1high

Rebounds

Walker KesslerLAL
10.7± 2.2low
Deandre AytonLAL
9.1± 4.7high
Luka DoncicLAL
7.1± 2.1high

Assists

Luka DoncicLAL
7.6± 3.5high
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
6.9± 2.8high
Ryan RollinsMIL
5.5± 1.9high

Blocks

Walker KesslerLAL
1.8± 2.5low
Deandre AytonLAL
0.9± 0.6high
Austin ReavesLAL
0.7± 1.0high

Steals

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
2.1± 1.4high
Luka DoncicLAL
2.0± 1.4high
Collin SextonLAL
1.6± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIL

league avg

LAL

56.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

57.0%

47.7%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.9%

110.6

PPG

114.9

▶

114.8

25.8

Assists / G

25.0

25.7

14.5

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR