NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6POR

HOU

22-13

105111

POR

19-20

NBAFri, Jan 9FinalSeriesPOR leads series 2-1VegasHOU -6.5

HOU · top performer

Kevin Durant

F · #7

27.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

POR · top performer

Toumani Camara

F · #33

17.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowHOU ↔ POR

Biggest swing: 27pp · 4th Quarter · 1:48

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	39	30	11-20	4-9	4-4	+5	12	4
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	41	13	6-21	0-10	1-2	-19	8	1
T. EasonF · #17	16	6	2-4	1-2	1-2	-1	3	2
S. AdamsC · #12	33	5	2-2	—	1-4	-14	9	3
A. ThompsonG · #1	37	24	9-17	0-3	6-8	-12	9	3
Bench
D. Finney-SmithF · #2	18	3	1-7	1-7	—	-3	3	1
C. CapelaC · #30	11	0	0-1	—	—	+11	4	1
J. OkogieG · #20	12	4	1-3	0-2	2-4	+2	5	2
R. SheppardG · #15	34	20	8-21	4-11	—	+1	3	4
Team		105	40-96	10-44	15-24		56	21
DNP: J. Green, J. Tate, A. Holiday, J. Davison

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. CamaraF · #33	40	25	9-16	5-11	2-2	-5	2	2
D. AvdijaF · #8	36	20	5-15	2-6	8-8	+3	3	6
D. ClinganC · #23	33	8	3-9	0-4	2-2	+8	15	6
S. SharpeG · #17	35	20	8-22	2-7	2-2	+11	8	5
S. CissokoG · #91	22	13	4-4	2-2	3-3	+28	1	1
Bench
R. Williams IIIC · #35	7	0	—	—	—	-2	3	1
D. ReathC · #26	11	3	1-1	1-1	—	+13	5	1
Y. HansenC · #16	13	2	1-5	0-3	—	0	1	1
C. LoveG · #2	25	18	6-13	4-8	2-2	-7	4	1
R. RupertG · #21	19	2	0-4	0-2	2-4	-19	1	2
Team		111	37-89	16-44	21-23		43	26
DNP: J. Grant, K. Murray, J. Holiday, M. Thybulle, J. Cooke

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

POR

Home

40-96

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

37-89

FG %

10-44

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-44

15-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-23

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

POR leads series 2-1

Nov 15

POR116@

HOU140

Jan 8

HOU102@

POR103

Jan 10

HOU105@

POR111today

Mar 7

POR99@

HOU106

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

222.5

Standard · -3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOU-25872%

POR+21032%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -6.5↗SpreadBet HOU -6.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

222.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

POR beat HOU 111-105. T. Camara paced them with 25 PTS, 2 REB, 2 AST. POR outscored the other side 34-15 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

POR vs HOU

Starters vs bench

production by unit

HOUstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 41 REB · 13 AST

GS 65

Bench(4)

27 PTS · 15 REB · 8 AST

GS 20

PORstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 29 REB · 20 AST

GS 72

Bench(5)

25 PTS · 14 REB · 6 AST

GS 19

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

POR4th Quarter · 2:43 · 99-100

+14pp→ 75% WP

Jabari Smith Jr. · shooting foul

POR4th Quarter · 1:48 · 101-102

+16pp→ 79% WP

Jabari Smith Jr. · shooting foul

POR4th Quarter · 1:48 · 101-103

+27pp→ 81% WP

Sidy Cissoko · makes free throw 1 of 3

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
HOU	29	27	34	15	105
POR	28	27	22	34	111

Period scoring

HOU won 2 · POR won 1

Thompson 8

Camara 16

Durant 8

Love 8

Sheppard 11

Avdija 7

Durant 7

Cissoko 7

HOU

POR

Shooting comparison

HOU

POR

42%

40-96

42%

37-89

23%

10-44

3PT

36%

16-44

63%

15-24

91%

21-23

Play-by-play · 502 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
HOU 105·POR 111
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
HOU 105·POR 111
+0.5pp
Q4·6.0
Kevin Durant bad pass turnover (Sidy Cissoko steals)
·
HOU 105·POR 111
+1pp
Q4·7.8
Donovan Clingan makes free throw 2 of 2
HOU 105·POR 111
−1pp
Q4·7.8
Donovan Clingan makes free throw 1 of 2
HOU 105·POR 110
Q4·7.8
Amen Thompson personal take foul
HOU 105·POR 109
+2pp
Q4·7.8
Donovan Clingan defensive rebound
HOU 105·POR 109
+2pp
Q4·10.1
Reed Sheppard misses 24-foot three point jumper
HOU 105·POR 109
+5pp
Q4·13.8
Steven Adams enters the game for Josh Okogie
·
HOU 105·POR 109
Q4·13.8
Donovan Clingan enters the game for Caleb Love
·
HOU 105·POR 109
Q4·13.8
Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Duop Reath
·
HOU 105·POR 109
Q4·13.8
Toumani Camara out of bounds bad pass turnover
HOU 105·POR 109
−5pp
Q4·14.1
Caleb Love enters the game for Sidy Cissoko
·
HOU 105·POR 109
Q4·14.1
Duop Reath enters the game for Donovan Clingan
·
HOU 105·POR 109
Q4·14.1
Trail Blazers Full timeout
HOU 105·POR 109
Q4·14.1
Josh Okogie enters the game for Steven Adams
·
HOU 105·POR 109
Q4·16.1
Amen Thompson makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Kevin Durant assists)
·
HOU 105·POR 109
−0.8pp
Q4·30.5
Toumani Camara makes free throw 2 of 2
HOU 103·POR 109
−2pp
Q4·30.5
Toumani Camara makes free throw 1 of 2
HOU 103·POR 108
+0.6pp
Q4·30.5
Reed Sheppard personal foulBIG MOMENT
HOU 103·POR 107
+5pp
Q4·38.4
Jabari Smith Jr. lost ball turnover (Sidy Cissoko steals)BIG MOMENT
·
HOU 103·POR 107
+6pp
Q4·41.7
Jabari Smith Jr. offensive rebound
HOU 103·POR 107
−4pp
Q4·45.7
Kevin Durant misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
HOU 103·POR 107
+5pp
Q4·51.3
Rockets offensive team rebound
HOU 103·POR 107
Q4·51.3
Steven Adams vs. Deni Avdija
·
HOU 103·POR 107
−4pp
Q4·57.6
Jabari Smith Jr. misses 23-foot three point jumper
HOU 103·POR 107
+5pp
Q4·1:03
Sidy Cissoko makes dunk (Shaedon Sharpe assists)BIG MOMENT
·
HOU 103·POR 107
+5pp
Q4·1:07
Amen Thompson lost ball turnover (Deni Avdija steals)BIG MOMENT
·
HOU 103·POR 105
+8pp
Q4·1:11
Sidy Cissoko bad pass turnover (Amen Thompson steals)BIG MOMENT
·
HOU 103·POR 105
−8pp
Q4·1:13
Sidy Cissoko offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
HOU 103·POR 105
+6pp

Betting line

HOU -6.5·O/U 222.5·HOU -258/POR +210

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ortland Trail Blazers held off Houston Rockets, 111–105.

POR +6.5 cashed (HOU lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 222.5 by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Deni AvdijaPOR · F
DRIVES20.899+
Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Robert Williams IIIPOR · C
TS%72.299
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298
Shaedon SharpePOR · G
USG%29.996

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

POR vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

180

projections · 165 high confidence

Points

Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Deni AvdijaPOR
25.3± 7.7high
Amen ThompsonHOU
20.2± 7.7high

Rebounds

Donovan ClinganPOR
10.3± 2.7high
Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high

Assists

Ja MorantPOR
8.1± 3.9high
Deni AvdijaPOR
6.3± 3.2high
Jrue HolidayPOR
6.3± 3.0high

Blocks

Donovan ClinganPOR
1.5± 1.2high
Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high
Robert Williams IIIPOR
1.1± 0.9high

Steals

Marcus SmartHOU
2.1± 1.8high
Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
Tari EasonHOU
1.8± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

HOU

league avg

POR

53.7%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.0%

47.4%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.1%

114.1

PPG

114.9

114.6

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

14.3

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

16.2

Data via ESPN · hoopR