SAC
8-30
GS
21-18
SAC · top performer
DeMar DeRozan
G · #10
24
Pts
2
Reb
3
Ast
GS · top performer
Stephen Curry
G · #30
27
Pts
0
Reb
10
Ast
Biggest swing: 13pp · 2nd Quarter · 11:40
NBA · Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 26 | 8 | 4-6 | 0-1 | — | -17 | 7 | 2 | |
| 28 | 13 | 6-11 | 1-4 | — | -21 | 4 | 7 | |
| 35 | 24 | 10-19 | 1-2 | 3-5 | -22 | 2 | 3 | |
| 30 | 15 | 7-15 | 1-7 | — | -29 | 3 | 3 | |
| 25 | 5 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 2-2 | -16 | 2 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 5 | 1 | — | — | 1-2 | +2 | 0 | 1 | |
| 22 | 6 | 3-5 | — | — | -17 | 8 | 1 | |
| 20 | 15 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 4-4 | -15 | 3 | 3 | |
| 19 | 8 | 4-10 | 0-4 | — | -17 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | -5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 25 | 6 | 2-6 | 2-3 | — | -13 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 103 | 43-86 | 7-27 | 10-13 | 31 | 23 | ||
| DNP: D. McDermott, D. Saric, D. Eubanks | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 23 | 15 | 6-10 | 0-1 | 3-3 | +20 | 6 | 6 | |
| 27 | 11 | 4-7 | 3-4 | — | +16 | 6 | 8 | |
| 13 | 11 | 4-9 | 3-8 | — | +10 | 2 | 2 | |
| 32 | 27 | 10-21 | 6-12 | 1-1 | +14 | 0 | 10 | |
| 22 | 7 | 3-6 | 1-2 | — | +6 | 0 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 4 | 0 | 0-2 | — | — | +5 | 2 | 0 | |
| 18 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-2 | — | +7 | 1 | 1 | |
| 16 | 9 | 4-6 | 1-2 | — | +13 | 5 | 2 | |
| 4 | 6 | 2-4 | 2-4 | — | +5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 18 | 12 | 6-7 | — | — | +9 | 9 | 1 | |
| 19 | 19 | 6-10 | 3-6 | 4-4 | +14 | 0 | 1 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | +5 | 1 | 2 | |
| 22 | 14 | 4-6 | 0-2 | 6-6 | +28 | 4 | 2 | |
| 16 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | — | +18 | 2 | 1 | |
| Team | 137 | 52-95 | 19-45 | 14-14 | 41 | 39 | ||
| DNP: J. Kuminga | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
50
FG %
55
23
Ast
39
Team stats
SAC
Away
Stat
GS
Home
43-86
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
52-95
50
FG %
55
7-27
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
19-45
10-13
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
14-14
23
Assists
39
12
Turnovers
10
Season series
Series tied 1-1
GS116@SAC121SAC103@GS137todaySAC105@GS110GS118@SAC124Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
GS -15.5
Between 10 and —
Total
231.5
Standard · +5.5 vs avg
Moneyline
SAC+55015%GS-80089%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
15.5
0.0 since open
Total
231.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
GS beat SAC 137-103. S. Curry paced them with 27 PTS, 0 REB, 10 AST. GS outscored the other side 40-19 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
GS vs SAC
Starters vs bench
production by unitSACstarters 63% of ptsStarters(5)
65 PTS · 18 REB · 16 AST
GS 50
Bench(6)
38 PTS · 13 REB · 7 AST
GS 30
GSstarters 52% of ptsStarters(5)
71 PTS · 14 REB · 28 AST
GS 67
Bench(9)
66 PTS · 27 REB · 11 AST
GS 63
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactStephen Curry · makes 28-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)
De'Anthony Melton · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)
Malik Monk · bad pass turnover (Draymond Green steals)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAC | 29 | 30 | 25 | 19 | 103 |
| GS | 34 | 29 | 34 | 40 | 137 |
Period scoring
SAC won 1 · GS won 3
Q1
LaVine 7
Curry 11
Q2
DeRozan 8
Curry 7
Q3
DeRozan 11
Melton 12
Q4
Westbrook 6
Santos 73
Shooting comparison
50%
43-86
FG
55%
52-95
26%
7-27
3PT
42%
19-45
77%
10-13
FT
100%
14-14
Play-by-play · 437 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
SAC 103·GS 137
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SAC 103·GS 137
- Q4·5.3
Warriors offensive team rebound
SAC 103·GS 137
- Q4·8.2
Pat Spencer misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
SAC 103·GS 137
- Q4·13.2
Buddy Hield offensive rebound
SAC 103·GS 137
- Q4·14.0
Trayce Jackson-Davis misses dunk
SAC 103·GS 137
- Q4·14.0
Trayce Jackson-Davis offensive rebound
SAC 103·GS 137
- Q4·21.1
Quinten Post misses 25-foot three point jumper
SAC 103·GS 137
- Q4·31.7
Buddy Hield defensive rebound
SAC 103·GS 137
- Q4·34.5
Malik Monk misses 31-foot three point jumper
SAC 103·GS 137
- Q4·44.5
Buddy Hield makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Quinten Post assists)
·
SAC 103·GS 137
- Q4·1:03
Nique Clifford makes 23-foot three pointer (Malik Monk assists)
·
SAC 103·GS 134
- Q4·1:17
Quinten Post makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pat Spencer assists)
·
SAC 100·GS 134
- Q4·1:18
Pat Spencer offensive rebound
SAC 100·GS 131
- Q4·1:20
Quinten Post misses 23-foot three point jumper
SAC 100·GS 131
- Q4·1:35
Dylan Cardwell makes dunk
SAC 100·GS 131
- Q4·1:35
Dylan Cardwell offensive rebound
SAC 98·GS 131
- Q4·1:36
Nique Clifford misses driving layup
SAC 98·GS 131
- Q4·1:42
Pat Spencer out of bounds bad pass turnover
SAC 98·GS 131
- Q4·1:44
Will Richard defensive rebound
SAC 98·GS 131
- Q4·1:46
Quinten Post blocks Malik Monk 's 7-foot driving layup
·
SAC 98·GS 131
- Q4·1:53
Dylan Cardwell offensive rebound
SAC 98·GS 131
- Q4·1:55
Keon Ellis misses 22-foot three point jumper
SAC 98·GS 131
- Q4·2:04
Dylan Cardwell defensive rebound
SAC 98·GS 131
- Q4·2:08
Buddy Hield misses 28-foot three point jumper
SAC 98·GS 131
- Q4·2:24
Nique Clifford out of bounds bad pass turnover
SAC 98·GS 131
- Q4·2:25
Dylan Cardwell defensive rebound
SAC 98·GS 131
- Q4·2:29
Trayce Jackson-Davis misses layup
SAC 98·GS 131
- Q4·2:46
Devin Carter makes 1-foot driving dunk (Dylan Cardwell assists)
·
SAC 98·GS 131
- Q4·3:11
Quinten Post makes 25-foot three point jumper (Buddy Hield assists)
·
SAC 96·GS 131
Betting line
GS -15.5·O/U 231.5·SAC +550/GS -800
Recap · NBA
olden State Warriors held off Sacramento Kings, 137–103. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
GS -15.5 cashed (won by 34). Total cleared the 231.5 OVER by 8.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 players in cohort- Stephen CurryGS · GUSG%31.597
Maxime RaynaudSAC · CCONT7.593
Draymond GreenGS · FCONT7.593
Russell WestbrookSAC · GDRIVES11.692
Jimmy Butler IIIGS · FDRIVES11.391
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · SAC favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs SAC.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
155
projections · 140 high confidence
Points
- Stephen CurryGS25.2± 8.3high
- Jimmy Butler IIIGS20.4± 6.0high
- DeMar DeRozanSAC18.0± 12.6high
Rebounds
- Domantas SabonisSAC10.6± 3.5high
- Maxime RaynaudSAC8.3± 2.4high
- Precious AchiuwaSAC8.2± 4.6high
Assists
- Draymond GreenGS6.6± 3.0high
- Jimmy Butler IIIGS4.8± 1.7high
- DeMar DeRozanSAC4.8± 3.7high
Blocks
- Dylan CardwellSAC1.7± 1.7high
- Keegan MurraySAC1.4± 0.8high
- Al HorfordGS1.1± 1.3high
Steals
- De'Anthony MeltonGS1.5± 1.4high
- Jimmy Butler IIIGS1.5± 1.3high
- Stephen CurryGS1.3± 1.2high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
SAC
league avg
GS
52.5%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶55.1%
46.7%
FG%
47.0
46.2%
111.0
PPG
114.9
▶114.5
25.5
Assists / G
25.0
▶28.8
13.7
Turnovers / G
14.0
15.1