NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5PHX

24-14

107112

PHX

23-15

NBAFri, Jan 9FinalSeriesPHX leads series 1-0VegasNY -1.5

NY · top performer

Jalen Brunson

G · #11

17.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

Devin Booker

G · #1

23.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNY ↔ PHX

Biggest swing: 23pp · 4th Quarter · 3:04

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. AnunobyF · #8	38	15	3-9	2-5	7-9	+5	8	3
K. TownsC · #32	33	15	5-11	2-5	3-5	-2	12	5
M. BridgesG · #25	33	11	4-10	3-8	—	-2	8	4
J. BrunsonG · #11	37	27	9-19	5-10	4-4	-2	3	5
M. McBrideG · #2	39	17	7-15	3-8	—	+1	2	2
Bench
M. DiawaraF · #51	4	0	—	—	—	-4	0	0
M. RobinsonC · #23	24	8	4-5	—	—	0	14	1
J. ClarksonG · #00	21	12	4-8	1-3	3-3	-6	1	0
K. McCullar Jr.G · #9	1	0	0-1	0-1	—	-9	0	1
T. KolekG · #13	10	2	1-4	0-1	—	-6	2	1
Team		107	37-82	16-41	17-21		50	22
DNP: P. Dadiet, A. Hukporti

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. O'NealeF · #00	33	12	4-6	4-6	—	+5	6	1
D. BrooksF · #3	33	27	8-15	5-9	6-6	+13	7	5
M. WilliamsC · #15	25	10	5-6	—	—	+9	5	0
D. BookerG · #1	39	31	10-23	4-6	7-8	+11	3	8
C. GillespieG · #12	28	6	2-8	2-6	—	-2	2	2
Bench
O. IghodaroF · #11	23	0	0-1	—	0-2	-5	0	3
R. DunnF · #0	12	7	3-3	1-1	—	-6	5	3
R. FlemingF · #20	4	2	1-2	0-1	—	-5	0	0
G. AllenG · #8	26	10	2-10	0-6	6-6	+8	3	1
J. GoodwinG · #23	18	7	3-11	0-7	1-1	-3	6	0
Team		112	38-85	16-42	20-23		37	23
DNP: N. Hayes-Davis, N. Richards, K. Maluach

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

37-82

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-85

FG %

16-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-42

17-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-23

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHX leads series 1-0

Jan 10

NY107@

PHX112today

Jan 18

PHX106@

NY99

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

229.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY-11854%

PHX-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -1.5↗SpreadBet NY -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

229.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHX beat NY 112-107. D. Booker paced them with 31 PTS, 3 REB, 8 AST. OG Anunoby's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHX vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 33 REB · 19 AST

GS 62

Bench(5)

22 PTS · 17 REB · 3 AST

GS 16

PHXstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 23 REB · 16 AST

GS 69

Bench(5)

26 PTS · 14 REB · 7 AST

GS 18

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NY4th Quarter · 3:04 · 100-101

+23pp→ 56% WP

OG Anunoby · makes free throw 1 of 2

PHX4th Quarter · 1:16 · 101-106

+15pp→ 85% WP

Royce O'Neale · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)

PHX4th Quarter · 13.5 · 103-106

+14pp→ 97% WP

Kevin McCullar Jr. · personal take foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NY	23	37	26	21	107
PHX	28	34	32	18	112

Period scoring

NY won 2 · PHX won 2

McBride 10

Brooks 11

Clarkson 9

Booker 12

Brunson 12

O'Neale 46

Anunoby 9

Booker 5

PHX

Shooting comparison

PHX

45%

37-82

45%

38-85

39%

16-41

3PT

38%

16-42

81%

17-21

87%

20-23

Play-by-play · 488 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 107·PHX 112
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 107·PHX 112
Q4·0.8
Knicks offensive team rebound
NY 107·PHX 112
Q4·0.8
Miles McBride misses heave jump shot
NY 107·PHX 112
Q4·0.8
Dillon Brooks makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 107·PHX 112
Q4·0.8
Dillon Brooks makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 107·PHX 111
Q4·0.8
Mikal Bridges personal take foul
NY 107·PHX 110
+2pp
Q4·2.2
OG Anunoby makes free throw 3 of 3
NY 107·PHX 110
Q4·2.2
Miles McBride enters the game for Mitchell Robinson
·
NY 106·PHX 110
Q4·2.2
Mitchell Robinson enters the game for Miles McBride
·
NY 106·PHX 110
Q4·2.2
Oso Ighodaro enters the game for Jordan Goodwin
·
NY 106·PHX 110
Q4·2.2
Mark Williams enters the game for Grayson Allen
·
NY 106·PHX 110
Q4·2.2
Ryan Dunn enters the game for Royce O'Neale
·
NY 106·PHX 110
Q4·2.2
Knicks offensive team rebound
NY 106·PHX 110
+1pp
Q4·2.2
OG Anunoby misses free throw 2 of 3
NY 106·PHX 110
−1pp
Q4·2.2
Knicks offensive team rebound
NY 106·PHX 110
+1pp
Q4·2.2
OG Anunoby misses free throw 1 of 3
NY 106·PHX 110
+2pp
Q4·2.2
Royce O'Neale shooting foul
NY 106·PHX 110
−0.9pp
Q4·4.5
Jalen Brunson enters the game for Mitchell Robinson
·
NY 106·PHX 110
Q4·4.5
Jordan Goodwin enters the game for Oso Ighodaro
·
NY 106·PHX 110
Q4·4.5
Knicks Full timeout
NY 106·PHX 110
Q4·4.5
Grayson Allen makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 106·PHX 110
−2pp
Q4·4.5
Karl-Anthony Towns enters the game for Jalen Brunson
·
NY 106·PHX 109
Q4·4.5
Mitchell Robinson enters the game for Kevin McCullar Jr.
·
NY 106·PHX 109
Q4·4.5
Oso Ighodaro enters the game for Collin Gillespie
·
NY 106·PHX 109
Q4·4.5
Grayson Allen makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 106·PHX 109
+0.5pp
Q4·4.5
Miles McBride personal foulBIG MOMENT
NY 106·PHX 108
+12pp
Q4·5.0
Kevin McCullar Jr. enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns
·
NY 106·PHX 108
Q4·5.0
Collin Gillespie enters the game for Oso Ighodaro
·
NY 106·PHX 108
Q4·5.0
Suns Full timeout
NY 106·PHX 108
−3pp

Betting line

NY -1.5·O/U 229.5·NY -118/PHX -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hoenix Suns held off New York Knicks, 112–107. Decided by 5.

PHX +1.5 cashed (NY lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 229.5 by 10.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Jalen BrunsonNY · G
TOUCHES89.699
Devin BookerPHX · G
USG%31.397
OG AnunobyNY · F
CONT8.496
Mark WilliamsPHX · C
CONT8.496
Dillon BrooksPHX · F
USG%28.694

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHX vs NY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Jalen BrunsonNY
27.4± 9.6high
Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
Jalen GreenPHX
21.0± 10.3high

Rebounds

Karl-Anthony TownsNY
10.8± 3.1high
Josh HartNY
8.4± 3.0high
Miles BridgesPHX
5.8± 3.6high

Assists

Jalen BrunsonNY
6.2± 3.2high
Devin BookerPHX
5.8± 2.3high
Josh HartNY
4.6± 1.9high

Blocks

OG AnunobyNY
1.0± 1.0high
Karl-Anthony TownsNY
0.9± 0.7high
Oso IghodaroPHX
0.8± 0.7high

Steals

Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high
Josh HartNY
1.5± 1.4high
OG AnunobyNY
1.5± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

PHX

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.7%

48.0%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.5%

116.4

PPG

◀

114.9

112.2

27.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.5

12.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR