NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+12PHI

PHI

21-15

10391

ORL

21-18

NBAFri, Jan 9FinalSeriesPHI wins series 2-1VegasPHI -3.5

PHI · top performer

Tyrese Maxey

G · #0

20.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ORL · top performer

Desmond Bane

G · #3

16.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHI ↔ ORL

Biggest swing: 15pp · 1st Quarter · 7:26

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. GeorgeF · #8	33	18	8-21	0-7	2-2	+9	9	3
D. BarlowF · #25	24	11	5-9	0-1	1-2	-5	9	0
J. EmbiidC · #21	31	22	7-17	0-3	8-9	+4	9	3
T. MaxeyG · #0	38	29	10-22	3-8	6-6	+7	1	1
V. EdgecombeG · #77	40	6	3-8	0-3	—	+7	9	7
Bench
J. WalkerF · #33	9	2	—	—	2-2	+9	1	2
A. DrummondC · #1	17	7	3-7	—	1-2	+8	6	0
K. Oubre Jr.G · #9	15	0	0-5	0-2	—	+9	6	0
Q. GrimesG · #5	29	6	2-5	1-4	1-1	+11	1	3
J. McCainG · #20	5	2	1-1	—	—	+1	1	1
Team		103	39-95	4-28	21-24		52	20
DNP: T. Watford, A. Bona, K. Lowry, E. Gordon

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	37	14	6-18	0-3	2-2	-7	11	7
N. PendaF · #93	30	5	2-5	0-2	1-1	-9	7	1
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	29	13	6-13	1-6	—	+3	8	2
D. BaneG · #3	38	23	9-19	0-3	5-5	-9	5	5
A. BlackG · #0	37	21	7-12	3-7	4-4	-6	3	4
Bench
J. IsaacF · #1	7	4	1-1	—	2-2	-2	1	1
J. CainF · #8	5	0	0-2	0-2	—	-2	1	1
G. BitadzeC · #35	12	2	1-3	0-1	—	-13	3	0
T. JonesG · #2	17	0	0-3	0-2	—	+2	0	0
J. HowardG · #13	9	0	0-6	0-3	—	-3	0	0
J. RichardsonG · #11	19	9	4-6	—	1-4	-14	3	0
Team		91	36-88	4-29	15-18		42	21
DNP: T. da Silva

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

ORL

Home

39-95

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

36-88

FG %

4-28

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

4-29

21-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHI wins series 2-1

Oct 27

ORL124@

PHI136

Nov 26

ORL144@

PHI103

Jan 10

PHI103@

ORL91today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

226.5

Standard · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI-15561%

ORL+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -3.5↗SpreadBet PHI -3.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

226.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat ORL 103-91. T. Maxey paced them with 29 PTS, 1 REB, 1 AST. PHI outscored the other side 20-12 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ORL vs PHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHIstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 37 REB · 14 AST

GS 69

Bench(5)

17 PTS · 15 REB · 6 AST

GS 16

ORLstarters 84% of pts

Starters(5)

76 PTS · 34 REB · 19 AST

GS 52

Bench(6)

15 PTS · 8 REB · 2 AST

GS 9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHI1st Quarter · 7:26 · 11-10

+15pp→ 49% WP

Dominick Barlow · misses 5-foot tip shot

ORL2nd Quarter · 9:03 · 28-31

+9pp→ 63% WP

Joel Embiid · lost ball turnover (Goga Bitadze steals)

ORL4th Quarter · 9:56 · 87-81

+8pp→ 32% WP

Andre Drummond · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHI	24	29	30	20	103
ORL	28	26	25	12	91

Period scoring

PHI won 3 · ORL won 1

George 6

Bane 8

Maxey 8

Full 21

Maxey 14

Richardson 6

George 10

Bane 6

PHI

ORL

Shooting comparison

PHI

ORL

41%

39-95

41%

36-88

14%

4-28

3PT

14%

4-29

88%

21-24

83%

15-18

Play-by-play · 497 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHI 103·ORL 91
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHI 103·ORL 91
Q4·22.3
shot clock turnover
PHI 103·ORL 91
Q4·45.1
Joel Embiid defensive rebound
PHI 103·ORL 91
Q4·46.6
Noah Penda misses 24-foot three point jumper
PHI 103·ORL 91
Q4·1:05
Wendell Carter Jr. defensive rebound
PHI 103·ORL 91
Q4·1:07
Paul George misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
PHI 103·ORL 91
Q4·1:27
Anthony Black bad pass turnover (Paul George steals)
·
PHI 103·ORL 91
Q4·1:30
Magic offensive team rebound
PHI 103·ORL 91
Q4·1:30
Noah Penda misses 22-foot three point jumper
PHI 103·ORL 91
Q4·1:42
(01:42) [Magic] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Magic] retain their timeout
PHI 103·ORL 91
Q4·1:42
Magic Coach's Challenge
PHI 103·ORL 91
Q4·1:42
Magic defensive team rebound
PHI 103·ORL 91
Q4·1:42
Paolo Banchero blocks Joel Embiid 's 3-foot layup
·
PHI 103·ORL 91
Q4·1:49
Joel Embiid defensive rebound
PHI 103·ORL 91
Q4·1:52
Joel Embiid blocks Paolo Banchero 's 6-foot layup
·
PHI 103·ORL 91
Q4·2:03
Paolo Banchero defensive rebound
PHI 103·ORL 91
Q4·2:05
Wendell Carter Jr. blocks Tyrese Maxey 's 7-foot two point shot
·
PHI 103·ORL 91
Q4·2:20
Noah Penda personal foul
PHI 103·ORL 91
Q4·2:37
Desmond Bane makes 1-foot two point shot (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)
·
PHI 103·ORL 91
Q4·2:57
Paul George makes driving layup
PHI 103·ORL 89
Q4·3:14
Magic Full timeout
PHI 101·ORL 89
Q4·3:14
76ers Full timeout
PHI 101·ORL 89
Q4·3:14
Desmond Bane makes two point shot (Noah Penda assists)
·
PHI 101·ORL 89
Q4·3:20
Joel Embiid lost ball turnover (Noah Penda steals)
·
PHI 101·ORL 87
Q4·3:35
Desmond Bane makes free throw 2 of 2
PHI 101·ORL 87
Q4·3:35
Paul George enters the game for Dominick Barlow
·
PHI 101·ORL 86
Q4·3:35
Desmond Bane makes free throw 1 of 2
PHI 101·ORL 86
Q4·3:35
Quentin Grimes personal foul
PHI 101·ORL 85
Q4·3:42
Tyrese Maxey makes 24-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)
·
PHI 101·ORL 85
−0.5pp

Betting line

PHI -3.5·O/U 226.5·PHI -155/ORL +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hiladelphia 76ers went into Orlando Magic and beat them, 103–91.

PHI -3.5 cashed (won by 12). Total stayed UNDER 226.5 by 32.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Tyrese MaxeyPHI · G
TOUCHES94.599
Joel EmbiidPHI · C
USG%34.399
Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Goga BitadzeORL · C
TS%70.099
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ORL vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

170

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Jaylen BrownPHI
26.6± 6.3high
Joel EmbiidPHI
25.3± 7.2high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
25.0± 6.5high

Rebounds

Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high
Joel EmbiidPHI
8.0± 3.5high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
7.4± 4.7high

Assists

Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
5.9± 1.9high
Jalen SuggsORL
4.6± 1.5high

Blocks

Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
1.3± 0.7high
Joel EmbiidPHI
1.3± 1.4high

Steals

Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Anthony BlackORL
1.5± 1.8high
Desmond BaneORL
1.5± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHI

league avg

ORL

52.9%

Effective FG%

54.4

52.5%

46.0%

FG%

47.0

45.9%

114.3

PPG

114.9

114.2

24.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

26.0

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR