NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2UTAH

DAL

14-24

114116

UTAH

13-24

NBAThu, Jan 8FinalSeriesUTAH leads series 2-0VegasDAL -5.5

DAL · top performer

Cooper Flagg

F · #32

26.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

UTAH · top performer

Lauri Markkanen

F · #23

22.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDAL ↔ UTAH

Biggest swing: 25pp · 4th Quarter · 3:02

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. DavisF · #3	35	21	10-20	0-2	1-1	-6	11	4
D. GaffordF · #21	25	0	—	—	—	0	7	0
N. MarshallF · #13	37	17	7-11	2-5	1-2	-9	2	4
C. FlaggF · #32	38	26	10-18	3-6	3-4	+3	10	8
M. ChristieG · #00	32	16	5-9	3-6	3-3	-10	4	4
Bench
C. MartinF · #16	14	2	1-2	—	—	+4	5	0
K. ThompsonG · #31	29	23	7-13	6-11	3-3	+3	3	5
B. WilliamsG · #10	9	2	1-4	0-2	—	-8	3	1
R. NembhardG · #9	22	7	3-8	1-4	—	+13	2	4
Team		114	44-85	15-36	11-13		47	30
DNP: D. Powell, D. Russell, J. Hardy

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. LoveF · #42	24	10	3-11	1-6	3-3	+13	10	2
L. MarkkanenF · #23	40	33	14-26	2-8	3-6	+7	7	4
C. WilliamsF · #5	22	8	4-5	0-1	—	+2	3	4
B. SensabaughF · #28	30	14	6-12	2-6	—	-4	5	3
K. GeorgeG · #3	37	19	8-12	1-4	2-3	-1	3	7
Bench
K. AndersonF · #2	26	2	1-5	—	—	-4	7	2
K. FilipowskiF · #22	18	8	3-5	1-1	1-2	+1	4	1
T. HendricksF · #0	4	3	1-4	1-4	—	-4	2	0
I. CollierG · #8	18	7	3-5	1-2	—	-10	1	6
W. Clayton Jr.G · #13	21	12	4-10	4-9	—	+10	0	3
Team		116	47-95	13-41	9-14		42	32
DNP: O. Tshiebwe, S. Mykhailiuk

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

UTAH

Home

44-85

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

47-95

FG %

15-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-41

11-13

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

9-14

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

UTAH leads series 2-0

Dec 16

DAL133@

UTAH140

Jan 9

DAL114@

UTAH116today

Jan 16

UTAH122@

DAL144

Jan 17

UTAH120@

DAL138

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

243.5

High-scoring · +17.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL-19266%

UTAH+16038%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -5.5↗SpreadBet DAL -5.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

243.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

UTAH beat DAL 116-114. L. Markkanen paced them with 33 PTS, 7 REB, 4 AST. Cooper Flagg's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (25pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

UTAH vs DAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DALstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 34 REB · 20 AST

GS 71

Bench(4)

34 PTS · 13 REB · 10 AST

GS 19

UTAHstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

84 PTS · 28 REB · 20 AST

GS 77

Bench(5)

32 PTS · 14 REB · 12 AST

GS 28

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

UTAH4th Quarter · 3:02 · 107-105

+25pp→ 35% WP

Cooper Flagg · misses 17-foot pullup jump shot

UTAH4th Quarter · 1:41 · 107-112

+13pp→ 87% WP

Brice Sensabaugh · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)

UTAH4th Quarter · 1:26 · 108-112

+13pp→ 86% WP

Naji Marshall · misses free throw 2 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	29	26	34	25	114
UTAH	34	24	30	28	116

Period scoring

DAL won 2 · UTAH won 2

Flagg 10

Markkanen 7

Thompson 7

Jr. 9

Christie 8

Markkanen 8

Marshall 8

Markkanen 10

DAL

UTAH

Shooting comparison

DAL

UTAH

52%

44-85

49%

47-95

42%

15-36

3PT

32%

13-41

85%

11-13

64%

9-14

Play-by-play · 436 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 114·UTAH 116
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 114·UTAH 116
Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Mavericks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
DAL 114·UTAH 116
+1pp
Q4·0.8
Naji Marshall makes 30-foot running jump shot (Max Christie assists)
·
DAL 114·UTAH 116
+2pp
Q4·7.0
Daniel Gafford defensive rebound
DAL 111·UTAH 116
Q4·7.1
Lauri Markkanen misses free throw 2 of 2
DAL 111·UTAH 116
−2pp
Q4·7.1
Jazz offensive team rebound
DAL 111·UTAH 116
−0.6pp
Q4·7.1
Lauri Markkanen misses free throw 1 of 2
DAL 111·UTAH 116
Q4·7.1
Daniel Gafford personal foul
DAL 111·UTAH 116
Q4·10.1
Cooper Flagg personal take foul
DAL 111·UTAH 116
+2pp
Q4·12.7
Cooper Flagg bad pass turnover (Walter Clayton Jr. steals)
·
DAL 111·UTAH 116
+5pp
Q4·16.3
Cooper Flagg offensive rebound
DAL 111·UTAH 116
−2pp
Q4·20.2
Max Christie misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
DAL 111·UTAH 116
+5pp
Q4·28.2
Mavericks Full timeout
DAL 111·UTAH 116
Q4·29.0
Keyonte George makes 14-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
DAL 111·UTAH 116
+6pp
Q4·47.2
Klay Thompson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Max Christie assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DAL 111·UTAH 114
−9pp
Q4·52.1
Brice Sensabaugh makes running layup
DAL 108·UTAH 114
+5pp
Q4·55.0
Naji Marshall bad pass turnover (Brice Sensabaugh steals)BIG MOMENT
·
DAL 108·UTAH 112
+8pp
Q4·1:05
Daniel Gafford defensive rebound
DAL 108·UTAH 112
−2pp
Q4·1:08
Lauri Markkanen misses 8-foot fade away jump shot
DAL 108·UTAH 112
−5pp
Q4·1:23
Brice Sensabaugh defensive rebound
DAL 108·UTAH 112
Q4·1:26
Naji Marshall misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
DAL 108·UTAH 112
+13pp
Q4·1:26
Naji Marshall makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 108·UTAH 112
−2pp
Q4·1:26
Walter Clayton Jr. shooting foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 107·UTAH 112
−13pp
Q4·1:41
Brice Sensabaugh makes 26-foot three point jumper (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DAL 107·UTAH 112
+13pp
Q4·1:48
Brice Sensabaugh defensive rebound
DAL 107·UTAH 109
+3pp
Q4·1:51
Naji Marshall misses 22-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
DAL 107·UTAH 109
+8pp
Q4·2:08
Klay Thompson enters the game for Ryan Nembhard
·
DAL 107·UTAH 109
Q4·2:08
Daniel Gafford enters the game for Anthony Davis
·
DAL 107·UTAH 109
Q4·2:08
Mavericks Full timeout
DAL 107·UTAH 109

Betting line

DAL -5.5·O/U 243.5·DAL -192/UTAH +160

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

tah Jazz held off Dallas Mavericks, 116–114. Decided by 2.

UTAH +5.5 cashed (DAL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 243.5 by 13.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Anthony DavisWSH · F
CONT9.799
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH · G
TOUCHES78.797
Daniel GaffordDAL · F
TS%67.796
Cooper FlaggDAL · F
DRIVES12.894
Lauri MarkkanenUTAH · F
USG%27.492

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DAL

league avg

UTAH

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

53.6%

46.6%

FG%

47.0

46.7%

114.1

PPG

114.9

▶

117.6

25.3

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

14.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR