NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9MIN

CLE

21-18

122131

MIN

25-13

NBAThu, Jan 8FinalSeriesMIN leads series 1-0VegasMIN -3.5

CLE · top performer

Donovan Mitchell

G · #45

23.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIN · top performer

Jaden McDaniels

F · #3

22.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCLE ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 11pp · 2nd Quarter · 8:24

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. AllenC · #31	30	11	5-9	—	1-2	-29	10	1
E. MobleyC · #4	38	19	8-11	3-5	0-1	+2	4	3
D. MitchellG · #45	37	30	10-20	2-8	8-9	+4	7	8
D. GarlandG · #10	37	16	7-16	1-4	1-4	-24	1	8
C. Porter Jr.G · #9	15	4	2-5	0-1	—	-17	1	2
Bench
D. HunterF · #12	27	14	6-11	0-3	2-2	+13	7	4
N. TomlinF · #35	8	2	1-1	—	—	+5	1	1
S. MerrillG · #5	31	22	7-13	5-11	3-3	+6	2	3
J. TysonG · #20	18	4	2-5	0-1	—	-5	5	1
Team		122	48-91	11-33	15-21		38	31
DNP: L. Nance Jr., T. Bryant, L. Ball, T. Proctor

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. RandleF · #30	35	28	10-21	3-7	5-6	+31	11	8
J. McDanielsF · #3	38	26	11-14	3-4	1-4	+12	5	1
R. GobertC · #27	37	11	5-5	—	1-3	+8	13	3
D. DiVincenzoG · #0	34	22	8-13	6-10	—	+15	1	4
A. EdwardsG · #5	37	25	10-20	4-7	1-2	+19	7	9
Bench
N. ReidC · #11	24	9	3-6	2-4	1-2	-21	6	3
M. ConleyG · #10	14	3	1-2	1-2	—	-6	1	2
J. ClarkG · #22	11	5	2-4	1-1	—	-6	0	0
B. HylandG · #8	10	2	1-4	0-3	—	-7	1	3
Team		131	51-89	20-38	9-17		45	33
DNP: J. Ingles, L. Miller, J. Beringer, J. Juzang, R. Dillingham

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

48-91

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

51-89

FG %

11-33

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

20-38

15-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

9-17

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIN leads series 1-0

Jan 9

CLE122@

MIN131today

Jan 10

MIN134@

CLE146

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

239.5

High-scoring · +13.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLE+12445%

MIN-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -3.5↗SpreadBet MIN -3.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

239.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat CLE 131-122. J. McDaniels paced them with 26 PTS, 5 REB, 1 AST. MIN outscored the other side 43-22 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIN vs CLE

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CLEstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 23 REB · 22 AST

GS 65

Bench(4)

42 PTS · 15 REB · 9 AST

GS 39

MINstarters 85% of pts

Starters(5)

112 PTS · 37 REB · 25 AST

GS 98

Bench(4)

19 PTS · 8 REB · 8 AST

GS 13

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CLE2nd Quarter · 8:24 · 45-37

+11pp→ 68% WP

Darius Garland · enters the game for Donovan Mitchell

CLE4th Quarter · 2:56 · 117-121

+9pp→ 18% WP

Sam Merrill · makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Darius Garland assists)

CLE4th Quarter · 1:34 · 120-126

+9pp→ 9% WP

Julius Randle · lost ball turnover (De'Andre Hunter steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CLE	31	36	22	33	122
MIN	32	31	43	25	131

Period scoring

CLE won 2 · MIN won 2

Merrill 11

Edwards 11

Mobley 8

McDaniels 8

Mitchell 10

Randle 13

Merrill 11

McDaniels 8

CLE

MIN

Shooting comparison

CLE

MIN

53%

48-91

57%

51-89

33%

11-33

3PT

53%

20-38

71%

15-21

53%

9-17

Play-by-play · 459 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CLE 122·MIN 131
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CLE 122·MIN 131
Q4·10.2
Julius Randle defensive rebound
CLE 122·MIN 131
Q4·13.4
Sam Merrill misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
CLE 122·MIN 131
Q4·18.5
Jaden McDaniels makes running dunk (Anthony Edwards assists)
·
CLE 122·MIN 131
Q4·21.4
Julius Randle defensive rebound
CLE 122·MIN 129
Q4·25.1
Donovan Mitchell misses 25-foot three point jumper
CLE 122·MIN 129
+1pp
Q4·26.4
Sam Merrill enters the game for Jarrett Allen
·
CLE 122·MIN 129
Q4·26.4
Cavaliers Full timeout
CLE 122·MIN 129
Q4·26.4
Julius Randle makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 122·MIN 129
Q4·26.4
Timberwolves offensive team rebound
CLE 122·MIN 128
−0.9pp
Q4·26.4
Julius Randle misses free throw 1 of 2
CLE 122·MIN 128
−0.5pp
Q4·26.4
Evan Mobley personal take foul
CLE 122·MIN 128
+1pp
Q4·27.0
Julius Randle offensive rebound
CLE 122·MIN 128
+3pp
Q4·29.4
Jaden McDaniels misses free throw 2 of 2
CLE 122·MIN 128
−3pp
Q4·29.4
Jarrett Allen enters the game for Sam Merrill
·
CLE 122·MIN 128
Q4·29.4
Timberwolves offensive team rebound
CLE 122·MIN 128
−1pp
Q4·29.4
Jaden McDaniels misses free throw 1 of 2
CLE 122·MIN 128
−0.5pp
Q4·29.4
Sam Merrill personal take foul
CLE 122·MIN 128
Q4·30.3
Sam Merrill personal take foul
CLE 122·MIN 128
+3pp
Q4·40.3
Julius Randle defensive rebound
CLE 122·MIN 128
+0.9pp
Q4·42.8
Evan Mobley misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
CLE 122·MIN 128
+3pp
Q4·54.5
Jaden McDaniels makes 15-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
CLE 122·MIN 128
+5pp
Q4·1:06
Evan Mobley makes running dunk (De'Andre Hunter assists)
·
CLE 122·MIN 126
−5pp
Q4·1:06
Anthony Edwards bad pass turnover (De'Andre Hunter steals)
·
CLE 120·MIN 126
−3pp
Q4·1:20
Anthony Edwards defensive rebound
CLE 120·MIN 126
+1pp
Q4·1:22
Sam Merrill misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
CLE 120·MIN 126
Q4·1:34
Julius Randle lost ball turnover (De'Andre Hunter steals)BIG MOMENT
· ·
CLE 120·MIN 126
−9pp
Q4·1:53
Sam Merrill makes 25-foot three pointer
CLE 120·MIN 126
−4pp
Q4·2:01
Jaden McDaniels makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)
·
CLE 117·MIN 126
+5pp

Betting line

MIN -3.5·O/U 239.5·CLE +124/MIN -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

innesota Timberwolves held off Cleveland Cavaliers, 131–122.

MIN -3.5 cashed (won by 9). Total cleared the 239.5 OVER by 13.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Rudy GobertMIN · C
CONT1299+
Jarrett AllenCLE · C
CONT9.899
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998
Evan MobleyCLE · C
CONT9.498
Anthony EdwardsMIN · G
USG%31.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
Anthony EdwardsMIN
23.7± 9.4high
LaMelo BallMIN
22.2± 8.0high

Rebounds

Rudy GobertMIN
10.1± 3.9high
Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high
Jarrett AllenCLE
7.3± 2.3high

Assists

LaMelo BallMIN
7.3± 2.5high
James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Donovan MitchellCLE
3.9± 2.0high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Rudy GobertMIN
1.4± 1.2high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high

Steals

Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high
James HardenCLE
1.4± 1.2high
Donte DiVincenzoMIN
1.2± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CLE

league avg

MIN

55.6%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.1%

47.7%

FG%

47.0

47.6%

117.4

PPG

114.9

116.8

27.1

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.7

13.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR