MIA
43-39
CHI
31-51
NBA · Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| -- | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| -- | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| -- | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| -- | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| -- | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| DNP: S. Fontecchio, K. Johnson, J. Jaquez Jr., N. Jovic, K. Ware, D. Smith, P. Larsson, K. Jakucionis | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| -- | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| -- | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| -- | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| -- | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| -- | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| DNP: P. Williams, E. Miller, D. Terry, J. Phillips, J. Carter, A. Dosunmu, Olbrich | ||||||||
Season series
MIA leads series 1-0
MIA143@
CHI107MIA0@CHI0todayMIA116@CHI113CHI125@MIA118CHI91@MIA134Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIA -6.5
Half-pt below key 7
Total
237.5
High-scoring · +11.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MIA-25071%CHI+20533%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
6.5
0.0 since open
Total
237.5
0.0 since open
Betting line
MIA -6.5·O/U 237.5·MIA -250/CHI +205
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 9 players in cohort
Matas BuzelisCHI · FCONT7.995
Tre JonesCHI · GDRIVES12.995
Coby WhiteCHA · GUSG%29.195
Andrew WigginsMIA · FCONT7.693
Bam AdebayoMIA · CCONT6.891
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · MIA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHI vs MIA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
150
projections · 120 high confidence
Points
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA25.0± 4.5high
- Norman PowellCHI18.4± 5.3high
- Bam AdebayoMIA18.4± 7.8high
Rebounds
- Bam AdebayoMIA10.3± 3.7high
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA9.9± 4.4high
- Josh GiddeyCHI8.1± 4.3high
Assists
- Josh GiddeyCHI9.9± 4.4high
- Davion MitchellMIA5.9± 2.8high
- Tre JonesCHI5.2± 2.9high
Blocks
- Matas BuzelisCHI1.5± 1.4high
- Jalen SmithCHI0.9± 1.0high
- Josh GiddeyCHI0.9± 1.0high
Steals
- Dru SmithMIA1.3± 1.8high
- Bam AdebayoMIA1.2± 0.8high
- Josh GiddeyCHI1.1± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
MIA
league avg
CHI
54.2%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶54.7%
46.8%
FG%
47.0
46.9%
120.9
PPG
114.9
116.3
29.0
Assists / G
25.0
28.5
13.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
14.6