NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2IND

IND

7-31

114112

CHA

13-25

NBAThu, Jan 8FinalSeriesIND leads series 2-0VegasCHA -4.5

IND · top performer

T.J. McConnell

G · #9

21.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHA · top performer

LaMelo Ball

G · #1

26.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowIND ↔ CHA

Biggest swing: 68pp · 4th Quarter · 1:56

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. SiakamF · #43	36	30	12-23	3-4	3-3	+7	14	3
J. HuffC · #32	24	10	4-4	2-2	—	+13	2	0
A. NesmithG · #23	35	16	5-12	3-7	3-3	+17	5	2
Q. JacksonG · #29	18	4	2-7	0-2	—	-6	0	5
J. FurphyG · #12	26	7	1-3	1-2	4-4	+5	6	2
Bench
J. WalkerF · #5	13	2	0-5	0-2	2-2	-7	3	1
T. BradleyC · #13	15	7	3-3	—	1-1	+7	3	0
M. PotterC · #11	8	5	2-4	1-2	—	-16	0	0
T.J. McConnellG · #9	28	23	10-17	1-3	2-2	+10	4	8
E. ThompsonG · #55	8	3	—	—	3-3	-2	0	0
B. SheppardG · #26	27	7	2-4	1-3	2-3	-16	4	2
K. JonesG · #7	2	0	—	—	—	-2	0	2
Team		114	41-82	12-27	20-21		41	25
DNP: A. Nembhard

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	36	19	7-13	3-6	2-4	0	6	4
M. DiabateF · #14	36	10	2-5	—	6-8	-3	5	1
B. MillerF · #24	19	6	2-8	1-5	1-2	-7	4	3
C. SextonG · #8	18	11	5-9	1-3	—	-22	0	5
K. KnueppelG · #7	29	18	5-12	2-6	6-6	-14	8	3
Bench
T. SalaunF · #31	13	4	2-5	0-3	—	+1	2	1
P. HallC · #16	11	2	1-2	—	—	-2	4	1
J. GreenG · #10	18	3	1-3	1-2	—	+8	0	0
L. BallG · #1	27	33	12-24	7-15	2-2	+19	3	8
S. JamesG · #4	22	4	1-3	1-3	1-2	+3	2	2
L. McNeeleyG · #33	11	2	1-2	0-1	—	+7	1	1
Team		112	39-86	16-44	18-24		35	29
DNP: P. Connaughton, T. Mann

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

CHA

Home

41-82

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-86

FG %

12-27

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-44

20-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-24

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

IND leads series 2-0

Nov 20

CHA118@

IND127

Jan 9

IND114@

CHA112today

Feb 27

CHA133@

IND109

Apr 3

IND108@

CHA129

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHA -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

232.5

Standard · +6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

IND+15439%

CHA-18565%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHA -4.5↗SpreadBet CHA -4.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

232.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

IND beat CHA 114-112. T.J. McConnell led with 23 PTS, 4 REB, 8 AST. Biggest WP swing of the night came in the 4th quarter (68pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHA vs IND

Starters vs bench

production by unit

INDstarters 59% of pts

Starters(5)

67 PTS · 27 REB · 12 AST

GS 51

Bench(7)

47 PTS · 14 REB · 13 AST

GS 38

CHAstarters 57% of pts

Starters(5)

64 PTS · 23 REB · 16 AST

GS 49

Bench(6)

48 PTS · 12 REB · 13 AST

GS 35

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHA4th Quarter · 1:44 · 109-111

+36pp→ 75% WP

T.J. McConnell · misses 6-foot pullup jump shot

IND4th Quarter · 0.7 · 114-112

+22pp→ 99% WP

Collin Sexton · misses 17-foot step back jumpshot

CHA4th Quarter · 1:56 · 109-111

+68pp→ 68% WP

(01:56) [Pacers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL REPLAYCENTER)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
IND	33	27	30	24	114
CHA	30	28	29	25	112

Period scoring

IND won 2 · CHA won 2

Siakam 15

Ball 14

Bradley 7

Ball 11

McConnell 11

Ball 11

Siakam 8

Bridges 11

IND

CHA

Shooting comparison

IND

CHA

50%

41-82

45%

39-86

44%

12-27

3PT

36%

16-44

95%

20-21

75%

18-24

Play-by-play · 501 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 114·CHA 112
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 114·CHA 112
−1pp
Q4·0.7
Johnny Furphy defensive rebound
IND 114·CHA 112
Q4·0.7
Collin Sexton misses 17-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
IND 114·CHA 112
−22pp
Q4·8.0
Quenton Jackson enters the game for T.J. McConnell
·
IND 114·CHA 112
Q4·8.0
Collin Sexton enters the game for Moussa Diabate
·
IND 114·CHA 112
Q4·8.0
LaMelo Ball enters the game for Josh Green
·
IND 114·CHA 112
Q4·8.0
Hornets Full timeout
IND 114·CHA 112
Q4·8.0
Ben Sheppard makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 114·CHA 112
+0.8pp
Q4·8.0
Johnny Furphy enters the game for Jay Huff
·
IND 113·CHA 112
Q4·8.0
Pacers offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
IND 113·CHA 112
+8pp
Q4·8.0
Ben Sheppard misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
IND 113·CHA 112
+6pp
Q4·8.0
Moussa Diabate personal foul
IND 113·CHA 112
−2pp
Q4·9.2
Josh Green enters the game for LaMelo Ball
·
IND 113·CHA 112
Q4·9.2
Miles Bridges personal foulBIG MOMENT
IND 113·CHA 112
−19pp
Q4·9.4
Moussa Diabate bad pass turnover (T.J. McConnell steals)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 113·CHA 112
−21pp
Q4·11.5
Pascal Siakam makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
IND 113·CHA 112
−9pp
Q4·23.3
Ben Sheppard defensive rebound
IND 111·CHA 112
−2pp
Q4·27.1
Kon Knueppel misses 7-foot turnaround jump shotBIG MOMENT
IND 111·CHA 112
−7pp
Q4·51.1
T.J. McConnell makes 12-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
IND 111·CHA 112
−9pp
Q4·1:03
LaMelo Ball bad pass turnover (Aaron Nesmith steals)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 109·CHA 112
−8pp
Q4·1:07
Jay Huff lost ball turnover
·
IND 109·CHA 112
Q4·1:07
Jay Huff vs. Sion James (LaMelo Ball gains possession)BIG MOMENT
· ·
IND 109·CHA 112
+9pp
Q4·1:11
Jay Huff offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
IND 109·CHA 112
−6pp
Q4·1:14
Aaron Nesmith misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
IND 109·CHA 112
+7pp
Q4·1:26
Pacers Full timeout
IND 109·CHA 112
Q4·1:26
Moussa Diabate makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 109·CHA 112
−2pp
Q4·1:26
Hornets offensive team rebound
IND 109·CHA 111
−5pp
Q4·1:26
Moussa Diabate misses free throw 1 of 2
IND 109·CHA 111
−4pp
Q4·1:26
Jay Huff loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
·
IND 109·CHA 111
+9pp

Betting line

CHA -4.5·O/U 232.5·IND +154/CHA -185

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ndiana Pacers went into Charlotte Hornets and beat them, 114–112. Decided by 2.

IND +4.5 cashed (CHA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 232.5 by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jay HuffIND · C
CONT8.796
Micah PotterIND · C
TS%67.996
Pascal SiakamIND · F
USG%30.096
Moussa DiabateCHA · F
CONT7.794
Brandon MillerCHA · F
USG%27.893

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

IND

league avg

CHA

53.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.0%

45.8%

FG%

47.0

45.9%

112.4

PPG

114.9

▶

115.8

27.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

26.2

13.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR