NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7GS

MIL

16-21

113120

20-18

NBAWed, Jan 7FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasGS -6.5

MIL · top performer

Giannis Antetokounmpo

F · #34

26.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

GS · top performer

Stephen Curry

G · #30

26.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIL ↔ GS

Biggest swing: 10pp · 3rd Quarter · 11:07

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
G. AntetokounmpoF · #34	31	34	15-22	2-4	2-7	+3	10	5
M. TurnerC · #3	25	13	4-8	2-4	3-3	-7	2	3
K. Porter Jr.G · #7	40	15	7-12	1-3	—	-2	4	9
A. GreenG · #20	30	11	4-8	3-6	—	+1	2	2
R. RollinsG · #13	35	16	7-13	2-5	—	-4	7	4
Bench
B. PortisF · #9	23	6	2-7	2-4	—	0	6	0
K. KuzmaF · #18	21	13	5-7	2-2	1-1	-13	2	2
G. HarrisG · #11	14	0	0-1	—	—	-2	2	2
G. Trent Jr.G · #5	22	5	2-7	0-4	1-1	-11	1	2
Team		113	46-85	14-32	7-12		36	29
DNP: T. Antetokounmpo, J. Sims, A. Coffey, A. Jackson Jr., C. Anthony

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. Butler IIIF · #10	32	21	6-15	1-5	8-9	-4	5	3
D. GreenF · #23	29	14	5-12	3-8	1-2	-10	3	7
Q. PostC · #21	19	11	5-8	1-3	—	-12	1	3
S. CurryG · #30	34	31	12-21	3-9	4-5	+16	6	7
M. MoodyG · #4	28	9	3-7	3-6	—	0	2	0
Bench
G. SantosF · #15	18	2	1-3	0-1	—	+12	4	1
A. HorfordC · #20	19	8	3-6	2-4	—	+9	10	6
D. MeltonG · #8	25	22	8-12	5-9	1-2	+4	3	0
B. PodziemskiG · #2	22	2	1-5	0-2	—	+19	6	4
W. RichardG · #3	13	0	—	—	—	+1	1	0
Team		120	44-89	18-47	14-18		41	31
DNP: T. Jackson-Davis, J. Kuminga, B. Hield, G. Payton II, P. Spencer

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

Home

46-85

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

44-89

FG %

14-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-47

7-12

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 31

GS110@

MIL120

Jan 8

MIL113@

GS120today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

GS -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

228.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIL+21032%

GS-25872%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet GS -6.5↗SpreadBet GS -6.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

228.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

GS beat MIL 120-113. S. Curry paced them with 31 PTS, 6 REB, 7 AST. GS outscored the other side 33-22 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

GS vs MIL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MILstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

89 PTS · 25 REB · 23 AST

GS 69

Bench(4)

24 PTS · 11 REB · 6 AST

GS 21

GSstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 17 REB · 20 AST

GS 68

Bench(5)

34 PTS · 24 REB · 11 AST

GS 35

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIL3rd Quarter · 11:07 · 58-64

+10pp→ 23% WP

Myles Turner · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIL	31	22	29	31	113
GS	31	33	34	22	120

Period scoring

MIL won 1 · GS won 2

Jr. 9

Curry 10

Antetokounmpo 11

Moody 6

Kuzma 8

Curry 13

Antetokounmpo 9

Green 7

MIL

Shooting comparison

MIL

54%

46-85

49%

44-89

44%

14-32

3PT

38%

18-47

58%

7-12

78%

14-18

Play-by-play · 438 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIL 113·GS 120
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIL 113·GS 120
Q4·4.1
De'Anthony Melton defensive rebound
·
MIL 113·GS 120
Q4·8.5
AJ Green misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
MIL 113·GS 120
+0.9pp
Q4·14.7
Stephen Curry out of bounds lost ball turnover
MIL 113·GS 120
Q4·14.7
(00:14.7) [Bucks] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Bucks] retain their timeout
MIL 113·GS 120
Q4·14.7
Bucks Coach's Challenge
MIL 113·GS 120
−0.6pp
Q4·20.3
Ryan Rollins makes driving layup
MIL 113·GS 120
Q4·26.1
Stephen Curry makes 21-foot step back jumpshot
MIL 111·GS 120
+1pp
Q4·44.3
Draymond Green defensive rebound
·
MIL 111·GS 118
+0.6pp
Q4·47.9
Ryan Rollins misses 10-foot two point shot
MIL 111·GS 118
+2pp
Q4·58.3
Myles Turner defensive rebound
MIL 111·GS 118
Q4·1:01
De'Anthony Melton misses 22-foot three point jumper
·
MIL 111·GS 118
−2pp
Q4·1:08
Moses Moody defensive rebound
MIL 111·GS 118
+0.7pp
Q4·1:11
Kevin Porter Jr. misses two point shot
MIL 111·GS 118
+0.8pp
Q4·1:19
(01:19) [Bucks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)
MIL 111·GS 118
+1pp
Q4·1:19
shot clock turnover
MIL 111·GS 118
−2pp
Q4·1:19
Warriors offensive team rebound
MIL 111·GS 118
+2pp
Q4·1:20
Draymond Green misses 18-foot jumper
·
MIL 111·GS 118
−1pp
Q4·1:43
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 1-foot driving dunk (Myles Turner assists)
· ·
MIL 111·GS 118
−0.9pp
Q4·1:59
Jimmy Butler III makes free throw 2 of 2
MIL 109·GS 118
−0.9pp
Q4·1:59
Moses Moody enters the game for Gui Santos
·
MIL 109·GS 117
Q4·1:59
Jimmy Butler III makes free throw 1 of 2
MIL 109·GS 117
Q4·1:59
Ryan Rollins shooting foul
MIL 109·GS 116
Q4·2:09
Giannis Antetokounmpo personal foul
·
MIL 109·GS 116
+2pp
Q4·2:09
Jimmy Butler III offensive rebound
MIL 109·GS 116
+2pp
Q4·2:09
Stephen Curry misses two point shot
MIL 109·GS 116
−2pp
Q4·2:28
AJ Green makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)
· ·
MIL 109·GS 116
−3pp
Q4·2:42
De'Anthony Melton makes free throw 2 of 2
·
MIL 106·GS 116
Q4·2:42
Warriors offensive team rebound
MIL 106·GS 115
−0.7pp

Betting line

GS -6.5·O/U 228.5·MIL +210/GS -258

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

olden State Warriors held off Milwaukee Bucks, 120–113.

GS -6.5 cashed (won by 7). Total cleared the 228.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA · F
USG%36.699+
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL · G
DRIVES16.799
Ryan RollinsMIL · G
DEFL4.098
Stephen CurryGS · G
USG%31.597
Myles TurnerMIL · C
CONT8.195

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

GS vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Stephen CurryGS
25.2± 8.3high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
20.4± 6.0high
Ryan RollinsMIL
19.5± 7.1high

Rebounds

Kristaps PorzingisGS
5.6± 2.4high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
5.4± 1.6high
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
5.1± 2.3high

Assists

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
6.9± 2.8high
Draymond GreenGS
6.6± 3.0high
Ryan RollinsMIL
5.5± 1.9high

Blocks

Al HorfordGS
1.1± 1.3high
Charles BasseyGS
0.9± 1.1medium
Kristaps PorzingisGS
0.7± 0.7high

Steals

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
2.1± 1.4high
De'Anthony MeltonGS
1.5± 1.4high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
1.5± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIL

league avg

56.5%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.1%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.2%

110.6

PPG

114.9

▶

114.5

25.8

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.8

14.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR